Household finances are a ‘millstone’ around the neck of recovery
James Plunkett
Date: 25. August 2011 / Category: Living costs
This blog first appeared on Left Foot Forward
A new poll out today from the Resolution Foundation confirms the extent to which poor household finances are now exerting a downward pull on the UK economy. The poll, carried out for the Foundation by ipsos MORI, finds that almost half of all people on low-to-middle incomes now say have no cash left over at the end of each month. More than one in four say they don’t make any regular savings. The findings reveal in stark terms that millions of ordinary households – not the poorest, and the vast majority in work – are now living on the edge of their means.
In a sense, the poll is no surprise in light of line of recent ONS data. With disposable income falling in real terms, households are finding themselves left with two unpalatable options: either cutting back on their spending or digging into savings. Both have serious implications for the prospects of sustainable UK recovery.
As I highlighted in a recent blog post, it’s now increasingly clear – as many predicted – that a recovery from the recent ‘balance sheet recession’ will be slow and tough. As Figure 1 shows, in the past three major recessions to have hit the UK, it was at around this point – 10 quarters on from the onset of the contraction – that household consumption began to pick up again strongly. On each occasion, that helped lift the economy back into sustained growth. This time around, a combination of historically high household debt and falling disposable income means consumption is proving little more than a millstone.
Figure 1: Household consumption following the onset of recession
% fall in real household consumption
'Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings' 'earnings squeeze' 'squeeze' 'wage stagnation' #ows £10000 10p 2011 2012 50p 99% Affordable Housing Alex Hurrell America andrew haldane Anna Vignoles apprenticeships arrears ASHE assets Audit Australia autumn statement bank of england below minimum wage benefits borgen Boris Johnson borrowing budget budget 2011 Budget 2012 cameron care assistant centreforum child benefit child poverty childcar childcare CiF citizens UK coalition Commission Commission on Living Standards conservatives cost of living Cost of Motherhood costs council tax council tax benefit cpi CPIH daniel chandler datablog David Cameron david willetts de-coupling Debt debt forgivenes debt target degree dependency dilnot distribution Donald Hirsch earnings economy Ed Miliband education employment enforcement equity release felicity dennistoun female employment first-time buyers forbearance gap Gavin Kelly GDP gearing gender generation rent gingerbread giselle cory good life great stagnation gregg growth growth without gain Guardian HELP Committee higher rate higher rate tax relief hmrc holmes hourglass household debt household finances household income household spending Housing housing market huffington post IFS illegal in work income income inequality income tax increase indignados inequality inflation institutional investment interest rates international ippr Ipsos MORI James Plunkett jared bernstein jobs jobs gap joe coward John Van Reenen jrf Labour labour market lane kenworthy lee savage Left Foot Forward Lib Dems liberal democrats living living costs living standards living wage living wage foundation LMIs Low earners low middle earners low pay Low Pay Britain low pay commission low to middle income low wage low wage work machin marginal tax rate matt whittaker matthew hancock Matthew Whittaker mayhew measuring poverty median real wage median wage Mervyn King middle class minimum income standards minimum wage missing out mobility monetary policy Montague mortgage market mortgages netmums new statesman new statesman blog new year newby newham Nick Clegg niesr number paid below minimum wage Obama OBR occupy occupy wall street OECD older older workers ons pay pay and pensions pension Pensions pensions relief personal allowances personal finance pledge cards polarisation policy politicans politics poll poverty predistribution prescription charges prices priorities private rented sector private sector growth prospect public sector public services q2 growth recession recovery reduce credit card reform regional Rented Sector resolution foudnation Resolution Foundation retirement robin wales routine jobs rpi RPIJ rss savings Senate shereen hussein skills social social care social housing social mobility social mobility foundation society Sophia Parker southern cross Squeezed Britain Squeezed Middle standards state state pension age sutton trust tax tax and benefit changes tax and benefits Tax Benefits tax changes tax credits tax cuts tax relief The Spirit Level think tank think-tank threshold travel time trends uk underemployment unemployment unison Universal Credit university USA van reenen VAT Vidhya Alakeson voters voting wage wage growth wage inequality Wage squeeze 2013 wages welfare Welfare Debate welfare state White Paper women Work work incentives workers Working part time lower skilled job working poor young people Youth unemployment youth wages zero hours
Useful links
Twitter Feed
Resolution Foundation
23 Savile Row, London, W1S 2ET
E: info@resolutionfoundation.org
T: 020 3372 2960
F: 020 3372 2999
For out of hours enquiries
M: 07443 042 722 / 07792 154 707
Company Number 5588883
Charity Number 1114839
© The Resolution Foundation 2012
Blog