Low growth implications for living standards particularly bleak
James Plunkett
This blog originally appeared on Left Foot Forward
This morning’s weak Q2 stats (pdf) would be worrying in any recovery. But in the aftermath of such a deep fall in output their implications for real trends in living standards are particularly bleak. The UK economy still has a long way to climb back to pre-recession levels of output. Chart 1 below (now updated from a recent post to include Q2 stats) puts the scale of the task in perspective.
A gloomy prognosis for Q2 growth stats
James Plunkett
This blog originally appeared on The Spectator
Next Tuesday the ONS releases its first estimate of second quarter UK GDP growth. It may be a slight exaggeration to call it a ‘make or break’ moment for the Chancellor but ‘make or brake’ might not be a bad description. After six months of no growth another three months of flat GDP would strengthen calls to slow his current economic strategy. A variety of posts are already pointing to gloom among forecasters. Figure 1, which readers may have seen in similar form before, sets out the severity of the situation in contrast to previous recessions. This was the sharpest, deepest downturn in living memory; we badly needed a similarly strong recovery.
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