Four tests for Osborne’s Budget


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This post originally appeared on The Spectator With the Coalition taking pre-Budget briefing to new levels you’d be excused for thinking there’s little we don’t know about tomorrow’s statement. But here are four questions we can’t yet answer, and that will be crucial to assessing whether this is a Budget for low-to-middle earners as the Chancellor claims: … Continued

The case for looser childcare ratios rests on confusion

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This blog originally appeared on the New Statesman The government claims to want to reduce costs and increase quality. It can’t have it both ways. This morning’s announcement on childcare ratios should be just the hors d’oeuvre before the government sets out its plans to increase childcare support for parents. According to the latest rumours, it now … Continued

The Treasury has a point on living standards — but it ignores the role of inequality

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One of the big surprises in today’s Autumn Statement lies in the new OBR projections. Growth has been revised up as expected—at least in the short-term. But wage forecasts are down. Amazingly, after today’s largely positive economic news, the squeeze on wages is now going to be even longer than the OBR thought in March. The updates reflect … Continued

Pay: the lost decade

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Recent good news on the jobs front should not obscure the fact that real wages have been falling for at least four years. Overall, the wage squeeze has created a lost decade for pay New Office for National Statistics data out this morning confirms what many workers will already know: the wage squeeze continues. In … Continued

The Pay Squeeze Just Got Tighter and Longer

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This post originally appeared on James’s Huffington Post blog As always, it’s the policy pronouncements that attract the attention on Budget day. A cheap pint is much more interesting than the minutiae of OBR figures. But the big story on Wesndesday in terms of its impact on households didn’t come from the Chancellor but from Robert … Continued

The Childcare Announcement That Never Was

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This blog originally appeared on the Huffington Post Uncertainty continues to cloud the government’s plans on childcare. Latest rumours suggest they may now delay any big announcement until after the budget. If government sources are to be believed, the most recent plans have been scuppered by a tag team of HMT officials and senior Lib Dems. The Treasury is … Continued

Clegg’s Score-draw on Women’s Work

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This post originally appeared on the Huffington Post The coalition recognised long ago it has a major problem with women. This morning’s speech from the deputy prime pinister was one of the first major attempts to address this challenge through policy. The speech, drawing heavily on the Resolution Foundation report The Missing Million, looked at how to raise female employment through … Continued

When a growing economy still feels bad

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This post orginally appeared on Coffeehouse David Cameron was right; the good news has kept on coming. This morning’s first estimate from the ONS puts GDP growth in the third quarter at 1.0 percent. Cue much justified squabbling over what the ‘real’ number is. A significant portion of this growth will be a one-off, post-Jubilympics bounce-back, suggesting slower … Continued

Debt and inequality conundrums

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This post originally appeared on the OECD blog How did inequality and household debt interact in the run up to the 2008/09 financial crisis?  Today, a new report byNIESR for the Resolution Foundation provides new evidence on that question for the UK. The new analysis confirms the severity of the borrowing situation of low income households in Britain before … Continued

The fraying thread between pay and productivity

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Do workers reap the benefits of productivity growth?  Few questions are more central to the conundrum of faltering living standards. If the 20th century was a golden era for material wellbeing in Britain, that’s explained by one factor above all others: from 1900 to 2000 UK labour productivity grew roughly fourfold, translating into unprecedented growth in real … Continued

Cameron is right to focus on quality apprenticeships

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If there are ‘no votes in skills’, as the old dictum goes, there seem to be some in apprenticeships. Hence David Cameron’s call this morning for apprenticeships to become a ‘gold standard’ qualification ranking alongside degrees from the best universities. His goal is to rectify Britain’s shockingly poor performance on mid-level skills compared to world … Continued

Are we facing an American nightmare?

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With the Chancellor’s autumn statement due next Tuesday, we’re all talking about growth. The ECB and Bank of England now say the UK economy is set to grow at less than half the rate the OBR forecast back in March. That makes it all but certain that George Osborne will announce dramatic downward revisions to UK forecasts when he stands up … Continued

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