Matthew Whittaker

In the balance: public finances in the next parliament

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Having assured us in recent weeks that we are better together, we can expect the three main parties to provide somewhat more discordant visions of the future over the coming conference season. And, with the Coalition expected to have delivered just over half of its intended fiscal consolidation programme by the end of the current … Continued

Matthew Whittaker

Crisis and consolidation in the public finances – reflections on our seminar with the OBR

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An exciting morning at RF-HQ. In one room, the first of our Universal Credit expert panel meetings, starting the process of reviewing the current design of UC and thinking about changes that would make the policy more likely to support people to get into and progress in work. In another, the OBR arrived to launch … Continued

Matthew Whittaker

To avoid squeezed households struggling, we must beware of premature interest rate rises

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Thursday’s interest rate announcement from the Monetary Policy Committee is unlikely to generate many headlines. “Bank does nothing for 65th straight month” is hardly a circulation-booster, even during silly season. But we can expect plenty of speculation alongside the announcement that the consensus among MPC members on holding rates will have been broken for the first time since … Continued

Matthew Whittaker

Living standards: what happens next?

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Going into next year’s election – the ‘living standards election’ – party political strategists are likely to fret about the length of voters’ memories. When asked whether the government has made them better off, will they compare their position with last year or with five years ago? The depth of the decline in incomes associated … Continued

Matthew Whittaker

The Bank’s conundrum countdown – Tightening policy in the shadow of a debt overhang

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If Mary Poppins taught us anything, it’s that a British bank is run with precision. But against a backdrop of rapidly changing and sometimes conflicting economic data, the balancing act currently facing the Bank of England requires a level of calibration rarely before seen. Clearly monetary policy must be tightened over the coming months and … Continued

Matthew Whittaker
Pay

Turning the corner: understanding this week’s wage data

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After nearly six years in which wage growth has been consistently outstripped by inflation, expectation is building that this week will mark an official end to the pay squeeze. As the chart below shows, the gap between the Office for National Statistics’ Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation measures has been narrowing … Continued

Matthew Whittaker

Crisis averted, or delayed reaction?

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As the weather gets colder, so Britain’s economic recovery appears to be warming up. The sense of optimism engendered by positive GDP and employment figures and by a range of business surveys is likely to be reinforced at next week’s Autumn Statement with significant upgrades to the OBR’s growth projections for the coming years. Clearly … Continued

Who will benefit from the tax break for married couples?

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Universal Credit means that married couples with children will only receive a small proportion of the gains David Cameron’s announcement of a marriage tax allowance has attracted significant interest. The policy will make £1,000 of personal income tax allowance transferable between adults who are married or in a civil partnership, provided the higher earner is … Continued

Matthew Whittaker

Plugging the gap

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Have lower rates helped to plug the income/expenditure gap? The latest Economic Review from the ONS provides the usual useful compilation of recent economic outputs, reinforcing the sense of momentum underpinning recovery, but questioning just how balanced this new growth is. One of the most important imbalances it picks up is between consumption and investment. Although still … Continued

Matthew Whittaker

Low Pay Britain: Failure to act risks generating growth which once again disproportionately benefits a minority

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Tentative it may be, but the British economy finally appears to be entering recovery. Output is improving, the employment rate is climbing and, perhaps most importantly for the sustainability of the upturn, a range of surveys point to a return of business confidence. Welcome though this is, there are still big question marks over the … Continued

Matthew Whittaker

Number of families with perilous levels of debt repayments could more than double to 1.2 million

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width=”597″ height=”486″ frameborder=”0″ marginwidth=”0″ marginheight=”0″ scrolling=”no” allowfullscreen=”allowfullscreen”> Closer to the Edge? Prospects for household debt repayments as interest rates rise from ResolutionFoundation For more information see Closer to the Edge? Prospects for household debt repayments as interest rates rise

Matthew Whittaker

The ticking debt bomb?

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This blog originally appeared on Public Finance When the financial crisis first hit, politicians of all parties talked up the notion of ‘rebalancing’ the economy, moving away from a growth model dependent on financial services, house price increases and consumption and towards one based on the real economy and on trade. Five years on and, with … Continued

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