The Chancellor has coped with a huge economic downgrade, but the outlook is grim for families across Britain

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Public Finances and the Economy

For his first Autumn Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility has given Philip Hammond a truly catastrophic set of economic forecasts. After a decade of unrealised productivity forecasts, the OBR has now delivered the mother of all downgrades; all but halving its view of the UK’s capacity to grow. As a result it now expects … Continued

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It’s time to stop feeling sorry for the Chancellor – there’s no excuse for a do nothing Budget

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Public Finances and the Economy

It’s all the rage to feel sorry for Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer. Philip Hammond is an unlucky man we’re told, having to prepare a Budget against a backdrop of a weaker economy, worse public finances and pressure to relaunch a government that’s had a tough Autumn. Those pressures are real, and no-one’s doubting that … Continued

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All gain, no pain? – the Chancellor’s cunning tax plan

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Public Finances and the Economy

British politics is odd these days. But even by current standards something very unusual looks set to happen in next week’s Budget. A basic rule of British politics is that tax rises tend to happen soon after a general election, with the Chancellor betting that we’ll all have forgotten about them when the next election … Continued

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Strictly Come Building: How housing can make a star turn in the upcoming Budget

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Housing, Wealth and Debt

Lowering expectations ahead of a Budget always helps a Chancellor. And when it comes to expectations of Cabinet members, Boris Johnson and Priti Patel have definitely been in the lowering business. But others have made the Chancellor’s task harder rather than easier. Robert Chote, the chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility, is set to … Continued

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It’s all about the wages, stupid

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Yesterday’s good news: the reason the Bank of England increased interest rates is because it thinks the growth in your pay packet is about to start picking up. The bad news: it doesn’t think they’re going to pick up very far because we’re just not very good as a country at improving how we produce … Continued

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The rate rise debate should prompt wider questions about the living standards impact of monetary policy

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Public Finances and the Economy

Tomorrow the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade, kicking off the first tightening cycle for monetary policy in 14 years. Whether or not the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee behaves as markets anticipate, the expectation has triggered two big questions. First there is the macro question … Continued

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