How is the UK’s pay recovery being shared?

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Wages & Income

After 12 straight months of real-terms growth, the question on pay has shifted from ‘when will it return?’ to ‘how strong and sustainable is it’? Until now, we’ve been unable to dig any deeper to consider the additional question of ‘who’s gaining?’ but we’ll get some early clues from official data out this Wednesday. Could … Continued

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Tone down, phase in or transition to: the options facing the Treasury on tax credits

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Welfare & Tax Reform

Following developments in the House of Lords, we’ve entered a new phase in the tax credits debate. Whatever the constitutional rights and wrongs, everyone can agree that the ball is firmly back in George Osborne’s court. Indeed last night he promised to look again at the changes. The real question now is to what extent … Continued

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What’s holding back nominal wage growth?

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Work & Security

Today’s statistics mark another welcome step along the road in our long-overdue earnings recovery. A gentle improvement in regular pay in the three months to February 2015 (now 1.8 per cent, with the total pay measure that includes bonuses close by at 1.7 per cent), against a backdrop of inflation having fallen to 0 per … Continued

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2015: The outlook for living standards – sunshine and clouds ahead

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Shared Growth

The economic recovery gained momentum in 2014, though it failed to feed through into raised living standards as much as many hoped. There are reasons for being fairly optimistic that this could start to change next year. Underpinned by the buoyant jobs market we expect household disposable incomes – the best measure of living standards … Continued

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