The RF Earnings Outlook Q3 2017

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

In Q3 2017 labour market observers were looking for signs that nominal pay growth could finally be picking up or that the British job creation machine was running out of steam. There was evidence of both, and the big question for 2018 is whether they’re sustained. The employment rate fell to 75 per cent, from … Continued

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Earnings Outlook Q2 2017

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

This Earnings Outlook looks at the second quarter of 2017. This was a period in which we saw the best and worst of the UK labour market. On the one hand, compared to a year earlier real pay fell by 0.5 per cent; yet on the other hand the unemployment rate hit a low not … Continued

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The RF Earnings Outlook Q1 2017

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

This Earnings Outlook looks at the first quarter of labour market data for 2017. This was a period when the pay squeeze returned with average weekly earnings falling by 0.4 per cent. This return is particularly unwelcome as average earnings are still 3.4 per cent below their pre-crisis peak. For Londoners and younger workers in … Continued

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The RF Earnings Outlook Q4 2016

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

This Earnings Outlook looks at the final quarter of labour market data for 2016. Most importantly, inflation has risen rapidly in recent months, weighing heavily on real pay growth – though published pay statistics will take some time to fully reflect this. Indeed, our ‘Spotlight’ article notes that real pay in the public sector has … Continued

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The RF Earnings Outlook Q3 2016

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

Two big 2016 events dominate our view of the labour market and likely developments in the coming years – the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) in April, and the result of the EU referendum in June. This final Earnings Outlook of the year – capturing data up to Q3 – provides an opportunity … Continued

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The RF Earnings Outlook Q2 2016

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

The second quarter of 2016 marked both the introduction of the National Living Wage and the vote to leave the European Union. There are tentative signs that the former has led to strong shared pay growth without affecting aggregate unemployment, but more data will be needed. Referendum effects are not yet visible, but Q2 2016 … Continued

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