In the light of latest OBR forecasts and the 2014 Budget, this paper considers where anticipated growth can come from. In the absence of widely-shared wage growth, can the UK economy grow above trend without a surge in credit? Or, must we resign ourselves to a period of subdued recovery?
In Growth up, wages down we consider the relationship between growth, consumption, investment, incomes and earnings in order to ascertain just how far wage growth might need to rise in order to set the economy back on track. For the purposes of illustration we consider the magnitude of wage growth that might be required to return GDP … Continued
The number of families in Britain with perilous levels of debt repayments could more than double to 1.2 million if interest rates rise faster than expected in the next four years and household income growth is weak and uneven. The figures suggest that the ongoing squeeze on households could leave Britain seriously exposed if interest … Continued
The government’s plans for deficit reduction have increasingly stark implications for public spending as their deadline draws nearer. While overall expenditure is set to remain relatively flat in 2015-16 (the period covered by the latest Spending Review) the pace of reduction in total government spending is due to increase significantly in the two subsequent years.
The Chancellor’s fourth Budget was a relatively quiet affair. While pre-announced changes mean that millions of households will face further reductions in benefit and tax credit receipts from April, the latest financial statement said nothing new about welfare cuts (though it confirmed that departmental spending is set to be tightened still further).