Economy 2030 Putting good work on the table Reforming labour market institutions to improve pay and conditions 4 September 2023 by Charlie McCurdy and Hannah Slaughter and Gavin Kelly The UK needs stronger labour market institutions Decent work is a pre-requisite for delivering shared prosperity and improving the lives of the country’s 34-million-strong workforce. In this context, the UK labour market has a number of strengths – from high employment to a national minimum wage that is now among the highest in the world. … Continued READ MORE
Gotta get through this Energy bills this winter 24 August 2023 by Jonathan Marshall and Emily Fry Britain’s energy bill crisis is not over: Ofgem’s imminent confirmation of the Q4 2023 price cap is expected to show that annualised typical energy bills will be above £1,900 from October, close to double those before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and only a little below the effective level of £2,100 from last winter that resulted … Continued READ MORE
Net zero· Housing It’s getting hot in here How ever-warmer UK summer temperatures will have an outsized impact on low-income households and low-paid workers 15 August 2023 by Jonathan Marshall Although the UK’s summer of 2023 has been something of a washout so far, the country is getting hotter, with temperatures over 40oC – first experienced in the UK in 2022 – set to become the norm. Hotter weather will impact different people in different ways, so this Spotlight explores what it means for Brits … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q2 2023 14 August 2023 by Nye Cominetti and Nadim Hamdan and Hannah Slaughter The UK has seen more strikes in the past year than in any since the 1980s. These strikes have been concentrated in the public and transport sectors, where unionisation rates are highest. The public and public-funded sectors have seen a bigger pay hit than the private sector overall, but there are exceptions – highly unionised … Continued READ MORE
Wealth & assets Peaked Interest? What higher interest rates mean for the size and distribution of Britain's household wealth 17 July 2023 by Molly Broome and Ian Mulheirn and Simon Pittaway Over the past four decades, the total value of wealth owned by UK households has been on a seemingly-relentless upward path: rising from around three-times GDP in the mid 1980s to almost eight-times. The key driver of this rise in wealth has been falling interest rates and the associated increase in asset prices. But the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Creating a Good-Jobs Economy in the UK Steering Economic Change 6 July 2023 by Vidit Doshi and Huw Spencer and Dani Rodrik The United Kingdom has a good-jobs challenge. The British economy falls short on inequality metrics on the one hand, and average household disposable income levels on the other. Real pay fell at the fastest rate in 20 years in 2022 and estimates suggest that real household disposable income is set to fall by the highest … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Sharing the benefits Can Britain secure broadly shared prosperity? 4 July 2023 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Cara Pacitti and Lalitha Try The UK has been living through a period of relative decline that has proved toxic for those on low-to-middle incomes. Against that backdrop, this report examines whether there is still a plausible path to steadily rising shared prosperity and, if so, what does it look like. It does this as part of the Economy 2030 … Continued READ MORE
Flexicurity and the future of work Lessons from Denmark 29 June 2023 by Anna Ilsøe and Trine Pernille Larsen Over recent decades, the Danish labour market has performed comparatively well. Denmark has exhibited not only a low unemployment rate, but also rising employment and high job mobility across shifting economic cycles. This success is often attributed to so-called Danish ‘flexicurity’: a jobs market model characterized by high levels of external numerical flexibility for employers … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Tax Tax planning How to match higher taxes with better taxes 28 June 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Greg Thwaites The UK’s tax take is rising, and is likely to stay high, but the system is not improving. The UK needs a tax strategy to support its economic strategy, using the tax system to boost shared growth. This paper, part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, describes what a good tax strategy would look like and … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Beyond Boosterism Realigning the policy ecosystem to unleash private investment for sustainable growth 22 June 2023 by Paul Brandily and Mimosa Distefano and Krishan Shah and Greg Thwaites and Anna Valero The UK is a low investment nation. Low business investment is a big driver of this. Low investment is one reason behind the UK’s weak productivity growth, which in turn is the main reason behind the stagnation in UK living standards. Policy makers understand this and have made attempts to fix it. This paper, part … Continued READ MORE
Housing The Mortgage Crunch 17 June 2023 by Simon Pittaway Recent signs that inflation is proving ‘stickier’ than hoped has raised the prospect of even more rate rises from Bank of England, and a deeper mortgage crunch for households. Higher than expected inflation and earnings in April has led financial-markets expectations of the peak to the current interest rate rise cycle to rise to nearly … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Brexit & trade Trading Up The role of the post-Brexit trade approach in the UK’s economic strategy 15 June 2023 by Shania Bhalotia and Swati Dhingra and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale After nearly half a century of EU membership, Britain needs a trade strategy. The stakes are high: such a strategy shapes what families and firms buy from abroad, and what gets produced domestically; influences our jobs, productivity levels and, ultimately, living standards; and contributes a major plank of Britain’s international policy at a time of … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Economic policy in the turbulent 2020s after the sluggish 2010s Transitioning from crisis management to structural reform 12 June 2023 by Catherine L. Mann READ MORE
Labour market· Skills· Wellbeing and mental health Left behind Exploring the prevalence of youth worklessness due to ill health in different parts of the UK 5 June 2023 by Louise Murphy This briefing note is part of the Health Foundation’s Young people’s future health inquiry, in which we focus on the prevalence of youth worklessness due to ill health in different parts of the UK. We find that young people in small towns or villages are more likely than young people in big cities to be out of work due to ill health. READ MORE
Economy 2030· Net zero Where the rubber hits the road Reforming vehicle taxes 1 June 2023 by Jonathan Marshall and Adam Corlett This briefing note examines the future of motoring taxes, which need extensive reform given the necessary and welcome rise of electric vehicles. We detail a suite of policies that will protect revenues and lower income households, reduce congestion, and facilitate the transition to zero-carbon motoring. READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Prices & consumption Food for thought The role of food prices in the cost of living crisis 19 May 2023 by Torsten Bell and James Smith and Lalitha Try The cost of living crisis is often thought of as a cost of energy crisis. That is an understandable, but increasingly inadequate, view. In particular, it understates the growing role of food prices (up by 25 per cent over the past year and a half) in the squeeze on living standards that households – especially … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Lessons from successful ‘turnaround’ cities for the UK Navigating Economic Change 15 May 2023 In this essay, part of our Navigating Economic Change series, the authors explore how cities can reverse long-term economic underperformance and move towards a new trajectory, looking at seven cities across five countries that have faced severe economic shocks but managed to break away from the resulting cycles of decline and transition to a more successful development path. READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q2 2023 13 May 2023 by Simon Pittaway The Bank of England has raised interest rates 12 times in a row, and UK families are dealing with the largest rise in more than 30 years. With all signs suggesting that the Bank is at least nearing the end of this rate cycle, this edition of our Macroeconomic Policy Outlook focuses on the mortgage … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption Hoping and coping How families were faring in March 2023 27 April 2023 by Molly Broome and Karl Handscomb and Lalitha Try Families in the UK found themselves in the midst of a cost of living crisis over the winter. Inflation has skyrocketed over the past year, with prices still over 10 per cent higher than a year ago. In response to the squeeze, the Government provided £47 billion of support to households in 2022-23, offsetting around … Continued READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Labour market Enforce for good Effectively enforcing labour market rights in the 2020s and beyond 25 April 2023 by Lindsay Judge and Hannah Slaughter This report concludes a four-year work programme at the Resolution Foundation supported by Unbound Philanthropy exploring the what, why and how of labour market enforcement. We bring together data and qualitative analysis with five cross-country studies to show how we could do better in the UK when it comes to enforcing labour market rights. READ MORE
Economy 2030· Low pay· Labour market Low Pay Britain 2023 Improving low-paid work through higher minimum standards 19 April 2023 by Nye Cominetti and Charlie McCurdy and Greg Thwaites and Rui Costa After a decade and a half of relative economic decline, Britain needs a new economic strategy. And good work must be at its heart – an explicit goal, not a hoped-for by-product of growth. This is a necessary precondition for a strategy that offers a credible promise of shared prosperity in the years ahead, strengthening … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Housing Trying times How people living in poor quality housing have fared during the cost of living crisis 15 April 2023 by Lalitha Try Plenty of research has shown the important role housing plays on our living standards, attitudes and wider health and wellbeing. But less attention has been paid to the effect of housing quality on living standards. In this report, we use data collected in March 2023 from an online YouGov survey (funded by The Health Foundation) … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Institutional reform for Inclusive Growth Lessons from Germany and Sweden 13 April 2023 by Anke Hassel and Kathleen Thelen In this essay, part of our Navigating Economic Change series, Anke Hassel and Kathleen Thelen explore strategies for mitigating some of the income, job and educational inequalities that rich democracies are currently confronting as a result of technological change and the growing gap between winners and losers in the new knowledge economy. READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q1 2023 6 April 2023 by Hannah Slaughter In recent months, labour market commentary has been dominated by the knock-on effects of the ongoing cost of living crisis. High inflation continues to erode real wages, despite strong nominal pay growth – and, in contrast to some policy makers’ fears that private sector wage growth could in itself drive prices higher, the latest evidence … Continued READ MORE
Tax· Welfare Happy new tax year, 2023! Tax and benefit changes coming in 2023-24 1 April 2023 by Adam Corlett 2022-23 featured an array of tax and benefit changes, including the introduction then cancellation of a major tax rate rise, and three big cash payment schemes to help cover living costs. Tax and benefit policy in the financial year 2023-24 may prove to be less fickle, and in this spotlight we set out what is … Continued READ MORE
