Economy 2030· Monetary policy· Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy Riding the economic rollercoaster Is Britain’s macroeconomic policy framework fit for purpose? Thursday 19 October 2023 …for monetary policy effectiveness and inflation targeting? Can the Treasury repeat the likes of furlough or caps on energy prices when the next crisis hits? And would it take to… READ MORE
Labour market Short-term pay pain eases, but long-term legacy leaves scars 15 August 2023 by Charlie McCurdy …(It surpassed this peak briefly during the Covid-19 pandemic, but this was down to furlough-related measurement effects.) Average weekly pay was £613 in the three months to June, compared to… READ MORE
French fears and WFH Anglo-Saxons Top of the Charts 21 July 2023 …incomes of those furloughed but from preventing 250,000 firms closing. The critics’ claims that furlough drove the recent rise in labour market inactivity is debunked: those who were furloughed aren’t… READ MORE
Ruinous relationships, parental paradise and the Government’s gamble on gambling 28 April 2023 …on the ‘creating big new policy responses swiftly’ side of things (furlough etc) and badly on the central decision making on how to handle the pandemic (i.e. too often seeing… READ MORE
What official new income statistics can tell us about living standards in 2021 and beyond 24 March 2023 by Adam Corlett The financial year from April 2021 to March 2022 feels a long time ago. The furlough scheme and £20 a week benefit boost were in place for the first half… READ MORE
Family incomes were protected over the course of the pandemic – but have fallen sharply since 23 March 2023 …the furlough scheme to the £20 a week uplift to Universal Credit – was at protecting incomes, says the Foundation. The latest data does show a big increase in relative… READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty Growing inequality across Britain has left millions of families exposed to the cost-of-living crisis 25 January 2023 by Lalitha Try …by the furlough scheme (1.1 million workers were still furloughed at the end of the scheme), and low-income households had their incomes boosted by the £20 a week addition to… READ MORE
Lengthening picket lines and the Great British Bin fire Top of the Charts 16 December 2022 …economic strategy focus on manufacturing. It also expresses the sheer scale of funding devoted to the national mission to close the East/West divide: Germany “spent the equivalent of a furlough… READ MORE
Britain’s boom in ungrateful retirees Top of the Charts 28 October 2022 …that’s flattered by furlough). But there was big good news too: the share of low-paid workers (earning less than two-thirds of typical hourly pay) fell to just 10.5 per cent… READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Five take-aways from the 2022 ASHE release: a bad year for pay growth, but good news on pay inequality 27 October 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Charlie McCurdy …that isn’t affected by the pandemic and the furlough scheme – many of the 9 million furloughed workers (at peak) were on reduced pay, which affected estimates of pay and… READ MORE
Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: Q3 2022 10 October 2022 by Jack Leslie and Krishan Shah and James Smith …it is affected by compositional effects related to the pandemic, including from the furlough scheme which added around 1 percentage point to wage growth in Q1 2022. Total pay growth… READ MORE
Economy 2030 Britain needs to get serious about an economic strategy towards a more prosperous, fairer, greener 2030s – can you help? Call for policy ideas to help Britain become a fairer, greener, more prosperous nation 6 October 2022 by Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites …crisis, spending reductions become a key policy objective in the 2010s, an ambitious furlough scheme implemented during the pandemic, and most recently in the face of energy crisis this winter,… READ MORE
Labour market The labour market is making history for the wrong reasons 16 August 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter …make matters worse, the headline pay growth numbers if anything overstate the strength of pay growth, because there is still a furlough effect in the data (we are comparing pay… READ MORE
Workers plunged into deepest pay squeeze since the Silver Jubilee 16 August 2022 …brought about the deepest pay squeeze in 45 years. It adds that with the effects of last year’s furlough adding around 0.5 percentage points to measures of annual pay growth,… READ MORE
Try your hand at levelling up the country Top of the Charts 1 July 2022 …the UK furlough scheme and benefit increases just our own version. But it hasn’t lastingly shifted attitudes towards benefits, despite confident predictions of a transformation. Further evidence of this comes… READ MORE
Labour market A tight labour market, but early signs of cooling 14 June 2022 by Nye Cominetti …of pay growth at any point in the last 20 years, barring 2021’s furlough-induced measurement spike. Regular pay growth (excluding bonuses) was 4.2 per cent in the three months to… READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Unemployment hits a record low but pay is still falling in real terms 17 May 2022 by Greg Thwaites …therefore come to be reflected in higher prices as firms try to recoup these costs. Last of all, pay growth is still being distorted by the furlough scheme, which pushed… READ MORE
Tight labour market drives bonuses up but wider wage squeeze deepens 17 May 2022 …the true scale of Britain’s real wage squeeze is likely to be even deeper as the headline rate is flattered by the effects of last year’s furlough. Finally, the Foundation… READ MORE
Living standards The cost of living crisis is going to hurt To tackle it, we will also need to address the stagnation which has bedevilled the UK economy for years 3 May 2022 by Torsten Bell …on the back of over a decade of stagnating incomes. Policies like furlough and temporary benefit boosts protected household incomes from the huge falls in GDP during the pandemic. But… READ MORE
Health expectancy, home economics and how surnames help with success Top of the Charts 29 April 2022 …GDP rich/employment poor relative to the UK. I originally thought this is about policy: our furlough scheme kept workers without work in employment, while the US accepted job losses and… READ MORE
Ventures WorkerTech newsletter: April 2022 The latest update from Resolution Ventures 28 April 2022 by Emma Selinger …causing real wages to fall, despite nominal wage growth being strong – explained by comparisons to discounted furlough scheme pay rather than real pay rises for workers. Happy new tax… READ MORE
Britain’s pay squeeze deepens despite unemployment matching its lowest rate in nearly half a century 12 April 2022 …last year’s furlough flattering the headline pay data, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday) in response to the latest ONS labour market statistics. The UK jobs market continued to tighten… READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay Labour Market Outlook Q1 2022 How should we interpret strong nominal earnings growth? 9 April 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites …was accounted for by furloughed workers moving back onto their full pay as they returned to work. The furlough effect will continue to push up pay growth until the autumn… READ MORE
Pay growth ‘normal rather than exceptional’ once end of furlough boost is accounted for 9 April 2022 …of ending furlough in boosting headline pay growth figures. Labour Market Outlook Q1 2022 examines how strong nominal wage growth statistics should be interpreted. Despite fears that the pandemic would… READ MORE
Beating the French in the Minimum Wage World Cup Top of the Charts 1 April 2022 …of the pandemic (2020-21). Rishi Sunak’s policy moves (furlough + benefit increases) protected household incomes (typical income fell just 1 per cent) from the huge hit to GDP (down 10… READ MORE