Labour market Short-term pay pain eases, but long-term legacy leaves scars 15 August 2023 by Charlie McCurdy …(It surpassed this peak briefly during the Covid-19 pandemic, but this was down to furlough-related measurement effects.) Average weekly pay was £613 in the three months to June, compared to… READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Five take-aways from the 2022 ASHE release: a bad year for pay growth, but good news on pay inequality 27 October 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Charlie McCurdy …that isn’t affected by the pandemic and the furlough scheme – many of the 9 million furloughed workers (at peak) were on reduced pay, which affected estimates of pay and… READ MORE
Labour market The labour market is making history for the wrong reasons 16 August 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter …make matters worse, the headline pay growth numbers if anything overstate the strength of pay growth, because there is still a furlough effect in the data (we are comparing pay… READ MORE
Labour market A tight labour market, but early signs of cooling 14 June 2022 by Nye Cominetti …of pay growth at any point in the last 20 years, barring 2021’s furlough-induced measurement spike. Regular pay growth (excluding bonuses) was 4.2 per cent in the three months to… READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Unemployment hits a record low but pay is still falling in real terms 17 May 2022 by Greg Thwaites …therefore come to be reflected in higher prices as firms try to recoup these costs. Last of all, pay growth is still being distorted by the furlough scheme, which pushed… READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay Labour Market Outlook Q1 2022 How should we interpret strong nominal earnings growth? 9 April 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites …was accounted for by furloughed workers moving back onto their full pay as they returned to work. The furlough effect will continue to push up pay growth until the autumn… READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market· Skills· Intergenerational Centre Leaving lockdown Young people’s employment in 2021: improvements and challenges in the second year of the Covid-19 pandemic 31 January 2022 by Louise Murphy …worklessness throughout the course of the pandemic Young people aged 18-24 were the age group most likely to have experienced extended worklessness (having been unemployed, fully furloughed or self-employed without… READ MORE
Labour market· Pay January’s labour market data confirms 2022 will be the year of the pay squeeze 18 January 2022 by Nye Cominetti …the crisis (the unemployment rate peaked at 5.2 per cent), the millions of workers on furlough meant it was impossible to call the labour market ‘tight’. But with the furlough… READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market The new wave The economic policy response to Omicron 15 December 2021 by Torsten Bell and Jack Leslie …those furloughed continuing to receive 80 per cent of previous earnings, that would imply a cost of around £1.4 billion a month against a backdrop £46 billion of furlough spending… READ MORE
Labour market Two-and-a-half cheers for the UK’s post-furlough labour market 16 November 2021 by Greg Thwaites …indications are that this strength continued into October after the end of furlough. Payrolled employment continued its onward march, rising by 160,000. Consistent with this, data from our own recent… READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Post-furlough blues What happened to furloughed workers after the end of the Job Retention Scheme? 14 November 2021 by Mike Brewer and Charlie McCurdy …on furlough since June 2021 were furloughed in one job and working in another.2 But the more important reason is that post-furlough outcomes vary considerably between partially and fully furloughed… READ MORE
Economy 2030· Labour market Back to the future What comes next for the UK’s post-pandemic labour market? Tuesday 23 November 2021 At the onset of the pandemic, there were widespread concerns about catastrophic levels of unemployment in the face of lockdowns. But extending the furlough scheme has kept a lid on… READ MORE
Covid-19· Living standards· Labour market Who is still on furlough and what will happen next? 30 September 2021 by Torsten Bell …furlough, we estimate that about 1 million people may still be receiving pay via the scheme. At least half of these people are on “flexible furlough”, working some hours for… READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q3 2021 Prospects for unemployment after the Job Retention Scheme 5 September 2021 by Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites …rise later this year When considering the likely scale of moves from furlough into unemployment, it is also key to consider the profile of people currently on furlough. Age continues… READ MORE
Labour market Football went to Rome, holidays came home The impact of ‘staycations’ on the UK’s labour market 29 July 2021 by Nye Cominetti …workers still on furlough. Figure 7: Vacancies in hospitality are outstripping the overall recovery, but vacancies in tourism are in line with the overall level Indeed, the furlough data for… READ MORE
Labour market· Intergenerational Centre Out of the woods? Young people's mental health and labour market status as the economy reopens 5 July 2021 by Rukmen Sehmi …fully furloughed has halved since May 2020, to around 16 per cent at the end of May 2021. But they remain harder hit than older people, being two-and-a-half times more… READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market The beginning of the end 4 July 2021 by Daniel Tomlinson …furlough on 31 May 2021 The easing of restrictions across the country in recent months has triggered a substantial decline in furlough take-up, with 2.4 million people furloughed across the… READ MORE
Labour market Understanding the labour market: pandemic not pandemonium The labour market is normalising, not overheating 28 June 2021 by Torsten Bell and Kathleen Henehan and Krishan Shah and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites …have now returned to work (see Figure 2).1 Moreover, 69 per cent of those who were still furloughed in October 2020 (the trough for furlough rates in between lockdowns) have… READ MORE
Covid-19· Living standards· Labour market The final furlough? Family finances in the Covid recovery Thursday 1 July 2021 The UK economy is bouncing back after the deepest downturn in over three centuries. That bounce is being felt in the labour market too, with furlough rates falling and some… READ MORE
Labour market· Low pay· Pay· Living Wage Earning back better The future of low pay in Britain Monday 7 June 2021 …too – from the transition from furlough back to employment, to attempts to live up to the rhetorical commitments to build back better. How have low-paid workers been affected by… READ MORE
Covid-19· Monetary policy· Labour market Recovering from long Covid Understanding the pandemic’s labour market legacy Thursday 18 February 2021 …rising unemployment and long lasting furlough means an unprecedented number of people who have done little to no work in nearly a year. Previous recessions have taught us the impact… READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market The Chancellor has prevented a grim winter of redundancies – but has failed to fix the faults with his jobs support package 6 November 2020 by Mike Brewer …up to Christmas. Based on the Bank of England’s latest estimate that 5.5 million employees could be furloughed during November, the Chancellor’s extension of the furlough scheme is likely to… READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Where has six months of this crisis left workers, and what’s coming next Wednesday 28 October 2020 …pay or fewer hours, while others are worried about life after furlough, or have switched jobs or lost their livelihoods altogether. In order to understand how the labour market is… READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Final furlough? Six months on from the start of the Job Retention Scheme 18 September 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson …of those furloughed in late-July were partially furloughed, 73 per cent were furloughed in full, with the full/partial furlough status of the remaining 7 per cent unknown. We will be… READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Millions of furloughed workers have returned to work – but support for hard-hit sectors will be needed beyond October Analysing the HMRC Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme data 21 August 2020 by Nye Cominetti …Some sectors have seen faster reductions in furlough rates than others. The fastest reductions are visible in construction, where the proportion of workers furloughed at the end of June (31… READ MORE