Will the new Chancellor pass the first major test of support for ‘just managing families’ in his Autumn Statement?

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We are approaching the time of the football season where managers start to lose their jobs. New appointees inevitably face lots of problems, but they have an opportunity to make a name for themselves by turning things around. The key is to identify where problems are and take effective and rapid action. Even with intense … Continued

Young and self-ish? Who’s saving for their retirement and who isn’t

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When we worry about the pay of workers today, two groups often stand out as being hard hit – the young and the precariously employed, particularly self-employed workers that often work in the so-called gig economy. Concern for these groups stretches beyond the present. After all, low pay and a lack of saving makes it … Continued

Will the Chancellor replace employer National Insurance with a payroll levy?

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The Autumn Statement – the first fiscal statement not delivered by George Osborne since March 2010 – will be no small event. Given the replacement of the Prime Minister and Chancellor, the economic implications of the Brexit vote and the resetting of fiscal policy for the rest of the parliament, there will be plenty to … Continued

The 14p stealth tax rise that is hammering ‘just managing families’

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Judging new governments‎ is hard. Without decisions taken, let alone results delivered, we are left to judge the early months of an administration by the purpose that ‎motivates it. On this measure how does the first three months of Theresa May’s government measure up? First and foremost of course this government is about delivering Brexit. … Continued

Pay
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Living Wage
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Economy and public finances
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Political parties and elections

Money can’t buy you love. But can it help you win an election?

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  The centrepiece of John McDonnell’s conference speech in Liverpool today was a pledge to “write a real Living Wage into law”, creating clear (if still lyrically confusing) water between Labour and the government’s national living wage (NLW) policy. The apparent consensus around the benefits of a higher wage floor is a long way removed … Continued

Act now or shrink later: trade unions and the generational challenge

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Union membership to fall below one in five employees by 2030 unless current trends reversed The future should be full of potential for trade unions. Four in five people in Great Britain think that trade unions are “essential” to protect workers’ interests. Public concerns about low pay have soared to record levels over recent years. And, … Continued

Living standards
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Intergenerational Centre
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Political parties and elections

Millennials need more democratic firepower to fight the growing inequalities between generations

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The demographers used to argue that it was bad news to be born into a big generation – there would be more competition for jobs and for houses.  You would travel through live economy class not club class.  But it has not turned out like that. Instead the big generation, the baby boomers, born from … Continued

Intergenerational Centre
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Political parties and elections

Baby Boomers enjoyed a ballot box advantage over millennials worth four million votes at the last election

Decline in youth turnout dates back to mid-90s and presents a major democratic challenge A combination of their large population and high turnout gave the baby boomers a four million ballot box advantage over millennials at the 2015 General Election, creating a democratic imbalance that should concern all political parties. This is according to new … Continued

Matthew Whittaker

Amid all the Brexit uncertainty, a clearer picture is emerging

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Among the many things that feel different in the post-referendum world, there is an unusual air of anticipation surrounding what would previously have been considered relatively underwhelming statistical releases. Today we were treated to a quartet of such publications. On the face of it they appear to point in different directions, allowing commentators on both … Continued

Elephants, globalisation, and why we shouldn’t let domestic policy makers off the hook on living standards

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From political rallies to university seminars, it is becoming fashionable to say that globalisation has led to stagnant living standards for working and middle classes of the developed world, leaving national governments powerless to deliver rising incomes and explaining rising political dissatisfaction with the status quo. But these are dangerous words in such simple form, … Continued

Prime Minister’s ambition to help the 2.1 million “just managing” families means tearing down the “here and now” barriers to social mobility

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It’s understandable and right that all politicians want to focus on social mobility. Having “a fair chance to go as far as their talent and their hard work will allow”, as the Prime Minister said today, is what everyone wants for themselves and their children. And as a society the last thing we can afford … Continued

What might lower migration mean for workers, employers and government policy?

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Immigration was one of the most important issues in the recent EU referendum, with some polls even putting it as people’s biggest concern. There has been much debate about whether widespread migration has squeezed the pay of British workers. This often gets pulled towards two extremes; some argue that migration has no effect on people’s … Continued

A tale of two cities

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Housing affordability is often depicted as primarily a London problem but is this really the case? New analysis from the Resolution Foundation suggests that while the capital may be at the epicentre, the housing storm now rages far and wide. London itself is a tale of two cities. Home ownership rates in Inner London have … Continued

Matthew Whittaker

Five charts that tell the story so far of the post-referendum economy

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Perhaps the only certainty in relation to the UK at the moment is that things look very uncertain. Longer-term, much will depend on just what Brexit ends up meaning. Shorter-term, most economists expect some form of demand-led slowdown – with general business and consumer uncertainty pulling back on investment and spending and sharp falls in … Continued

Matthew Whittaker

Responsibility for avoiding a post-Brexit downturn rests as much with our politicians as our economists

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Despite boasting an impressive track record for inaction in recent years, the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to leave rates on hold last week still surprised many. Expectations had built following Mark Carney’s statement on 30 June that post-Brexit “deterioration” in the economic outlook meant that “some monetary policy easing [would] be required over the Summer”. … Continued

Renewing the intergenerational contract could be as important to future generations as a successful EU exit

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We have become very sensitive to inequities of class or race or gender. But we have been ignoring a growing new problem – unfairness between the generations. When I wrote The Pinch six years ago it was the first book looking at Britain from the point of view of the different generations. Since then it … Continued

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