Labour market· Skills Apprenticeship starts increased in July – but the overall forecast isn’t so sunny 28 October 2018 by Kathleen Henehan Although the UK enjoyed some glorious weather this month, the Met Office recently predicted cooler temperatures and gloomy skies in the immediate days ahead. Given the time of year, this isn’t all that surprising, but deep down you can’t help but be disappointed: the dullness of dreary weather can cause days to blend into each … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Budget special: Debt, bad bosses and a 31bn pound question Top of the Charts 26 October 2018 Bad jokes, disappointing reveals, a tradition of alcohol consumption and a hangover the day after when we realise it all has to be paid for – yes it’s just 60 days until Christmas 3 days until the Budget. We’re casting Robert Chote of the Office for Budget Responsibility as Santa Claus for the purposes of … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market· Pay· Inequality & poverty The gender pay gap is at an all-time low – but beyond the headlines, things aren’t so rosy 25 October 2018 by Fahmida Rahman ‘The UK’s gender pay gap has reached a record low of 8.6 per cent for full-time employees,’ read today’s headlines. This is certainly true, on the whole. But averages inevitably mask a wealth of compositional effects which show that large gains for some unwittingly offset not-so-large gains for others, as well as some not-quite-so-rosy trends … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market· Pay Wage growth, low pay and falling hours: breaking down this year’s ASHE figures 25 October 2018 by Conor D’Arcy For labour market wonks, ‘ASHE day’ is like your birthday and Christmas rolled into one. Each year around this time, the ONS publishes a plethora of spreadsheets packed to the brim with data on how wages have performed over the last year. While there are definitely some pleasant surprises in this year’s figures, there are … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Housing Easing the housing headache: what the Chancellor should do in next week’s Budget 22 October 2018 by Lindsay Judge No doubt about it, housing is a headache for many young people today. The dramatic fall in the home ownership rates of the under-35s often produces the sharpest pangs for politicians (although as Chart 1 shows, we’ve seen a slight uptick in the proportion of young families owning in the last year or so). But … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Tax The Chancellor may have one arm tied behind his back, but there are still tax levers he can pull 21 October 2018 by Adam Corlett How can a government with a tenuous majority, an intra-party feud and Brexit uncertainty find the money to ‘end austerity’ on top of more than £20 billion a year it has promised for the NHS? The safe bet is that it won’t find anywhere near all of it in the Budget. This can – like … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Angry tweets, hungry millennials and useless entrepreneurs Top of the Charts 19 October 2018 Afternoon all, I think Theresa May might have good reason for feeling miffed as we head into the weekend. We’ve had a triple whammy of pretty good economic news – the fastest rising pay packets since the financial crisis, lowest borrowing in over a decade and lower than expected inflation. And what gratitude does … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Welfare Despite ‘the end of austerity’, April promises another deep benefit cut 17 October 2018 by Adam Corlett Today we learned just how deep the benefits freeze will be in its fourth and final year. In July 2015, having promised £12 billion of welfare cuts – reportedly on the assumption that the Liberal Democrats would argue this down – George Osborne announced exactly that. Chief among these cuts was a further working age … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Delaying rollout of Universal Credit is a sensible step – but fundamental reforms are still needed 16 October 2018 by David Finch Today we learnt that the government is preparing a package of measures for Universal Credit (UC) ahead of the upcoming Budget – but what are they changing and what difference might it make? The first thing to understand is that these changes aren’t about the fundamentals of either the generosity or operation of Universal Credit … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Has Britain’s long overdue pay recovery finally arrived? 16 October 2018 by Stephen Clarke In 1965 The Kinks sang “I’m so tired, tired of waiting, tired of waiting for you”. This neatly sums up how many of us have felt about the UK labour market over the past decade, in particular our pay packets. Since 2009 we’ve grown quite tired of waiting for signs that pay growth could be … Continued READ MORE
Welfare The have-docs vs. the have-yachts, and good news for rich idiots Top of the Charts 12 October 2018 Afternoon all, We start with a warning about turning on the radio – whenever I’ve risked it this week I’ve kept hearing the words John Major and poll tax. It’s like the 1990s all over again. Even Noel Gallagher seems to have re-emerged from some Brit-pop time machine and Brexit definitely has a mid-90s vibe … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Universal Credit: the honesty we owe and the changes we need 12 October 2018 by Torsten Bell and Resolution Foundation Analysis All is not well in the land of Universal Credit (UC). Cabinet ministers are angsting in private about the challenges of rolling out this government’s single biggest domestic policy reform. Two ex-Prime Ministers are worrying in public that the benefit risks becoming a new poll tax. And Labour has (rhetorically at least) promised to scrap … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The OBR on Brexit: known-unknowns and unknown-unknowns cast shadow over the Budget 11 October 2018 by James Smith As if Philip Hammond’s job over the next few weeks wasn’t tough enough already, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) this morning has published its thinking on how Brexit will make his life harder for many years to come. Already charged with “ending austerity” (which, as Torsten pointed out last week, is a stretch to … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Tax· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Britain is set to replace the era of austerity with a new era of tax rises 7 October 2018 by David Willetts The main message that has united both main party conferences over the last fortnight is that the era of austerity is over. For Labour that means more spending on new things – from universal childcare to a mass programme of nationalisation. And for many Conservatives it means a return to what they love doing best … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Good firms, loyal partners and a Chinese spy-thriller Top of the Charts 5 October 2018 Morning all, It’s back to business as usual at TOTC. And we are very perky indeed here at Resolution Foundation HQ. Reason for perk 1: conference season is not only over but it involved Abba – as most things worth doing in life do. Reason for perk 2: apparently so is austerity* Reason for perk … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances The end of austerity? Not so much 3 October 2018 by Torsten Bell and Resolution Foundation Analysis The Prime Minister made a big bold statement today. No, not that she likes to dance to Abba (who doesn’t) but that she was “ending austerity”. Announcing the end of austerity is sensible politics. After all who, apart from a few fringe think-tanks, says they want more austerity in of itself? There are also signs … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Is there enough fuel in the fiscal tank for another duty freeze? 3 October 2018 by Matthew Whittaker After eight years of freezes, it had started to look like successive governments’ cancellation of the annual RPI-linked uprating of fuel duty had run out of road. After all, it’s already costing the government around £9 billion a year, and that cost will grow with each passing year. But we now know that the Chancellor … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Conservative Party conference special: Fighting non-Brexit battles on multiple fronts Top of the Charts 28 September 2018 Afternoon all, Labour conference and their Brexit bun fight* is done. Luckily nothing like that is going to happen when the Conservatives gather in Birmingham this weekend. They don’t call Boris Johnson a backstabber team player for nothing… More interesting in Liverpool than Labour’s Brexit shuffle was the extra detail of and focus on the Party’s plan for economic … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Five charts to chill the Chancellor’s blood ahead of the Budget 28 September 2018 by Matthew Whittaker We now know that this year’s Budget will be delivered on 29 October, making it the first Monday Budget since 1962. The traditional Wednesday has been avoided, we’re told, to side-step negative Halloween-based headlines. Yet there’s still plenty of scary stuff for the Chancellor to deal with – from finding the £20 billion needed to … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Did you feel happy yesterday? Broadening the measurement of living standards 26 September 2018 by George Bangham Today the ONS released their latest statistics on well-being in the UK, as they have done since 2011. These stats have their sceptics, both over the maths involved and over the very idea you can measure happiness over time (let alone orient policy towards it). But they matter: self-assessed well-being gives us an insight into … Continued READ MORE
Demographics· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Demography is the new class war 21 September 2018 by Torsten Bell The real question about this year’s Labour Party conference is what on earth everyone will talk about for four days. The supposed Brexit barney will be a damp squib and leadership rows have disappeared. So here’s a suggestion to fill the awkward silences: it’s time Labour talked about the arrival of generational divides in our … Continued READ MORE
Labour Party Conference special: Fully automated luxury communism Top of the Charts 21 September 2018 Afternoon all, I have the absolute pleasure of spending large parts of this weekend and the next fortnight up in Liverpool and Birmingham for the main party conferences – and don’t think I’m just going to suffer alone. Oh no, when it comes to the state of British politics we are all in this together. … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Migration MAC to the future 18 September 2018 by Stephen Clarke This morning the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) released the final report in its year-long (plus) investigation into EU migration. The report is arguably the most comprehensive assessment of how migration has affected the UK over the past two decades, dealing with topics as diverse as the labour market, housing, public finances and subjective wellbeing. In … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills Alternative paths to success? The jobs landscape facing young non-graduates today 18 September 2018 by Conor D’Arcy and Kathleen Henehan From photos of jumping A level students to guides to freshers’ week, at this time of year it can feel like university is the only route taken by teenagers. But in fact, fewer than half of young people follow this seemingly well-trodden path at 18. And, as this morning’s ONS publication about non-graduates’ employment patterns … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Lehman Brothers Anniversary special: The cause of, and lessons from, Britain’s pay squeeze Top of the Charts 14 September 2018 Afternoon all, Top of the Charts is in a reflective mood this week – what with tomorrow marking the 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. So, instead of the normal selection of pieces, I’ve written a long read on both what caused the unprecedented post-crash pay squeeze that we are still living with … Continued READ MORE
