Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances How tightly has the Chancellor tied his own hands on fiscal policy? 22 May 2015 by Adam Corlett Having secured a majority on 7 May, the Conservatives must now set about the difficult job of delivering on their various pre-election pledges. In relation to fiscal consolidation in particular, they can no longer point to the demands of a junior coalition partner as cause for rowing back on any of the harder to execute … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections How far apart are the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats on fiscal policy: could the coalition renew its vows? 28 April 2015 by Adam Corlett Recently we looked at the degree of potential overlap between Labour and Liberal Democrat fiscal plans, and found that the parties are not as far apart as might first be assumed. In this second note, we consider the relative positions of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. The Conservative goal appears relatively straightforward: they want to … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances· Welfare· Political parties and elections Could Labour and the Liberal Democrats agree on deficit reduction and spending cuts? 2 April 2015 by Adam Corlett At first glance How much of a difference is there between Labour and the Liberal Democrats on fiscal policy (we’ll consider the gap between other parties in future briefings)? Labour’s policy is to get “the current budget into surplus and national debt falling as soon as possible within the next Parliament” – ‘current’ meaning excluding … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances All aboard the fiscal rollercoaster? 19 March 2015 by Adam Corlett We now have the final fiscal backdrop for the election, with the OBR setting out their forecast for tax receipts and the government’s tentative proposals for spending. Here we take a post-Budget look at what the parties’ deficit reduction targets might mean for the next parliament. The graph below shows the fiscal stance of the … Continued READ MORE
Tax Five things you need to know about the personal allowance increase 17 March 2015 by Adam Corlett The Budget is expected to confirm rumours that the personal allowance – the amount you can earn free of any income tax – will increase to £11,000 next month, rather than the £10,600 laid out at the Autumn Statement in December. In this brief note we run through five things worth noting about this possible … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Productivity & industrial strategy· Public spending· Economy and public finances Productivity as much as politics will determine the scale of cuts and tax rises in the next parliament 16 March 2015 by Adam Corlett The scale of fiscal consolidation in the next parliament will depend largely on future productivity growth. Assuming the parties maintained their fiscal targets regardless of the underlying economic circumstances, a future Conservative government would be in the position of tightening less under a strong productivity scenario than is implied by existing Labour plans. Equally, a … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Public spending· Scotland The SNP and austerity: how different are they to the other parties? 13 February 2015 by Gavin Kelly and Adam Corlett Nicola Sturgeon gave a widely trailed speech in London earlier this week majoring on the SNP’s opposition to what she said was a ‘cosy consensus’ in Westminster on austerity. In providing a few new bits of information on the SNP’s view on public spending it helped fit another piece in the jigsaw that is the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The high road or the low road? What a balanced current budget by 2017-18 does and does not mean 12 January 2015 by Adam Corlett and Matthew Whittaker Taken at face value a new Charter for Budget Responsibility, with a goal of eliminating the structural current deficit by 2017-18, has potentially significant implications for the parties’ fiscal plans. This applies most to Labour – given their separate pledge to do this by 2019-20 – and to a significant extent for the Liberal Democrats. … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Will the Chancellor still be aiming for an overall budget surplus in 2018/19 after the Autumn Statement? 2 December 2014 by Adam Corlett In tomorrow’s Autumn Statement, the Chancellor is expected to announce an updated Charter for Budget Responsibility, which would formally commit the government to a balanced cyclically-adjusted current budget by 2017-18. By forcing a vote in parliament, the Chancellor is thought to be drawing Labour out on their potentially looser fiscal policy. Yet this move also … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Pay The prevalence of low pay in Britain remains stubbornly high 3 November 2014 by Adam Corlett More than one in five employees in Britain are low paid, according to this year’s Low Pay Britain report. This latest figure is a small increase, reversing a welcome fall the year before. But the bigger picture is that the rate of low pay in Britain has barely changed over the past 20 years. Beneath … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections In the balance: public finances in the next parliament 2 October 2014 by Matthew Whittaker and Adam Corlett Having assured us in recent weeks that we are better together, we can expect the three main parties to provide somewhat more discordant visions of the future over the coming conference season. And, with the Coalition expected to have delivered just over half of its intended fiscal consolidation programme by the end of the current … Continued READ MORE
