Labour market Now is the time to debate full employment 12 June 2013 by Gavin Kelly Full employment is not fantasy economics, but debate is squashed by economic complacency and fatalism A Labour leadership striving to re-earn the electorate’s trust in its capacity to manage the public finances wisely, restless mid-term Conservative backbenchers fearing they are sliding towards electoral defeat, a recession-wearied public agitated about welfare bills and a stubbornly high … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre The generation that’s going backwards 19 May 2013 by Gavin Kelly Falling incomes, rising prices, impossible debts … even before the crash some workers faced a suffocating squeeze When John F. Kennedy declared that “a rising tide lifts all boats” he was encapsulating the postwar belief that growth would generate steady rises in living standards for all. Even if richer households were sometimes the biggest gainers, … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Ed Miliband has many challenges – but the spending review isn’t one of them 7 May 2013 by Gavin Kelly George Osborne’s immediate priorities shouldn’t distract Labour, which instead must focus on how it plans to cut the deficit Whether Labour matches the spending totals set out by George Osborne in the spending review is deemed to be one of the most significant questions in British politics and the sternest test yet of Ed Miliband‘s leadership. But like many self-evident truths that … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Labour’s recovery position 29 April 2013 by Gavin Kelly To assert that the next general election will be about living standards is now a commonplace in Westminster, even a cliche. Say it and people nod along. But precisely what this means – the progress the public thinks is possible, the purchase they believe political parties have on the main policy issues – remains rather hazy. Some … Continued READ MORE
Labour market There’s no single, simple solution to low pay 14 April 2013 by Gavin Kelly Another year, another drop. The odds are that the impending announcement on the new rate for the national minimum wage will see a further decline in its real value, meaning a lost decade for those on the lowest pay. Wages right across the earnings spectrum have fallen, so many experts will greet this news with a shrug. But that’s unlikely … Continued READ MORE
Welfare The great tax swindle 2 April 2013 by Gavin Kelly In the week when the meaning of austerity hits home for many, the one big coalition giveaway comes in the form of the rapidly rising personal tax allowance. Any criticism about cuts to tax credits or benefits is met with the same ministerial retort: just look at the size of our tax reductions for those on low … Continued READ MORE
Welfare What does the childcare announcement really tell us? 19 March 2013 by Gavin Kelly This post originally appeared on Gavin’s New Statesman blog Before we rush to dissect the government’s new childcare policy it is worth pausing to reflect on the very fact that in an unprecedented time of austerity a Conservative-led administration is proposing to spend near on £1bn on childcare. There are all sorts of caveats and problems … Continued READ MORE
Living standards The end of pledge-card politics? 22 February 2013 by Gavin Kelly This post originally appeared on Gavin’s New Statesman blog The next election will see a battered electorate in need of economic and social respite confronted by a political elite woefully lacking in resources and public trust. Never in recent times will so much be asked from leaders who have so little to respond with. The result … Continued READ MORE
Welfare The wrong reform – at the worst possible time 30 January 2013 by Gavin Kelly Britain’s poorest households – already struggling to cope with falling wages, rising living costs, and a series of cuts to tax credits and benefits – are about to receive another blow. And very few of them know it’s coming. Within weeks they will receive an unexpected council tax bill in the post. Many will assume … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Could the Tories’ plan for re-election in 2015 cost just 10p? 28 January 2013 by Gavin Kelly Might something new be stirring on the right of politics in relation to the plight of Britain’s low paid? Just to pose the question is to invite ridicule from many on the left: how could the minimum-wage opposing, tax-credit cutting, VAT-hiking, benefit-squeezing Conservative party have anything to say to those at the sharp end of … Continued READ MORE
Welfare The coalition and families with children – a taxing issue? 21 January 2013 by Gavin Kelly This blog originally appeared on the New Statesman Often it takes the deadline of an impending announcement to really expose underlying tensions about the future direction of policy. The coalition’s recent sorry saga on childcare policy – breathless briefings about a major expansion in tax-relief meant to herald the coalition’s renewed vitality, followed by an awkward … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances From striver alert to future cuts: five things to expect from the Autumn Statement 4 December 2012 by Gavin Kelly This post originally appeared on Gavin’s New Statesman blog In the Autumn Statement there will be a blizzard of facts, figures, assertions and counter-assertions. There have been a few helpful pointers on what lto ook out for (try this and this), and I’ve already given my tuppence worth on what may happen to the faltering fiscal rules. But here are a … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances George Osborne cannot possibly know how long austerity will last 2 December 2012 by Gavin Kelly This post originally appeared on Gavin’s New Statesman blog Next week George Osborne will hold forth on the size of the underlying deficit and reveal whether austerity will now extend until at least 2018. When he does, he won’t know what he’s talking about – and he’ll be in good company. Neither will Ed Balls when … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances How seven years of cuts will transform the political landscape 29 November 2012 by Gavin Kelly When it comes to big political set pieces, like yesterday’s Autumn Statement, the predictable somehow still manages to surprise. Everyone knew it would be bad; and we all knew it would raise big challenges for all three parties. Yet today, everyone is caught off-guard.In part, it’s because the unprecedented duration of the cuts — until … Continued READ MORE
Welfare The politics of childcare are heating up. Here’s why 27 October 2012 by Gavin Kelly This post originally appeared on Gavin’s New Statesman blog Often an issue only gets the attention it deserves due to a shift in the wider political context. And so it may be with our creaking childcare system. Despite unprecedented increases in public support – and major improvements – it’s still the case that during the Labour years childcare … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances George Osborne’s strivers have a shock in store 11 October 2012 by Gavin Kelly Beware politicians serving up easy distinctions to please and appease their party faithful. This week at the Conservative conference, the favoured divide was between “strivers and shirkers“, a refinement of one of the oldest tropes in politics – the deserving and undeserving poor. Devices like these generally work far better in the conference hall than they … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Why it’s unlikely benefits increases will be linked to earnings 19 September 2012 by Gavin Kelly Gloomy projections all round. Following another Newsnight scoop, there must be debate in Westminster about whether the coalition are going to change their approach to uprating benefits – increasing them annually in line with inflation – for people of a working age. Coalition splits have already been predicted and then resolved before the pre-Autumn statement … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Casting ahead to the 2015 election, no party leader likes what he sees 9 September 2012 by Gavin Kelly As the Westminster tempo cranks up, just as the marvel of the Olympic and Paralympic summer winds down, the main party leaders will be looking for ways of securing immediate momentum. Following his bumpy reshuffle David Cameron needs to demonstrate to an increasingly sceptical public that he hasn’t become the prisoner of a divided party and a fractious coalition. … Continued READ MORE
Living standards US election is a wake-up call for alarm clock Britain 8 August 2012 by Gavin Kelly It’s the Middle Class, Stupid!, the new zeitgeist book by grizzled Clinton-era advisers Stan Greenberg and James “Ragin’ Cajun” Carville isn’t your standard fare by former political insiders. It’s less a retrospective and more an argument about reversing the declining fortunes of middle America: not only should this be the defining issue of this year’s presidential election … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Young people’s wages: the numbers look scary… because they are scary 2 August 2012 by Gavin Kelly This post originally appeared on Gavin’s New Statesman blog The economic plight of young people has been one of the recurring themes of recent years – most importantly the rise of youth unemployment which has topped one million and the steep rise of long-term youth unemployment. Yet for all the debate about the labour market position of … Continued READ MORE
Labour market We’re solving the pay gap – the wrong way 30 July 2012 by Gavin Kelly This post originally appeared on Gavin’s New Statesman blog One of the longest-running campaigns in modern British politics is that for equal pay. As many have pointed out it’s over 40 years since the Equal Pay Act yet the gender gap still persists. The good news is progress – even if it is all too slow – … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Coalition politics? It’s the art of the impossible 16 July 2012 by Gavin Kelly Last week’s failure on Lords reform has generated much frothy end-of-term speculation that this could be the issue that triggers the eventual downfall of the coalition. Which doesn’t tell you much, apart from the fact that many in Westminster clearly need a holiday. As Jackie Ashley pointed out in the Guardian on Sunday, neither David Cameron nor Nick Clegg … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Clegg’s new tone on the economy 23 May 2012 by Gavin Kelly This post originally appeared on Gavin’s New Statesman blogIt’s not every day you open the paper to read about a cabinet minister – one who isn’t the Chancellor – holding forth about the ‘instruction’ that has been given to the Treasury on a key aspect of economic policy. Nor we should we suppose that Nick … Continued READ MORE
Housing Chill out about the debt bubble? Not yet. 18 May 2012 by Gavin Kelly This post originally appeared on Gavin’s New Statesman blog What role did high levels of household debt play in generating the crash and what do they mean for our economy over the next few years? Well-worn questions, you might think. And no shortage of people have asserted answers. Following 2008, a whole new crunch-lit genre of … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Living wage – coming to a city near you 10 May 2012 by Gavin Kelly This post originally appeared on Gavin’s New Statesman blog The last time a letter left on a desk caused such a stir it involved an exchange between two senior politicians about the future of the country’s finances. This time the note was from a group of Whitehall cleaners to Iain Duncan Smith asking him to make … Continued READ MORE
