Labour market· Pay Five things we learned from today’s earnings figures 26 October 2016 by Laura Gardiner Today’s publication of the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) – our least timely but most comprehensive source on employee pay – allows us to assess what was happening to pay across the workforce shortly before the EU referendum, and provides an opportunity for speculation as to what the future holds. Here – in … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Inequality & poverty The “just managing” need deeds, not words 15 October 2016 by Laura Gardiner Theresa May has identified the fortunes of “just about managing” working families as her priority in post-Brexit Britain. A new government’s rhetoric precedes real outcomes against which it can be judged. But from one point of view, May’s talk about the low-paid looks well timed. Employment remains on an upward march, and after the longest … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Waging war on non-compliance 11 May 2016 by Laura Gardiner Big policy wins – those that shift the argument among politicos and have a real impact on people’s lives – are few and far between. Ask commentators to name the biggest success in recent decades and the National Minimum Wage (NMW) would be a top choice. So much so that last summer the Conservative chancellor … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Has our jobs recovery reached a plateau? 20 April 2016 by Laura Gardiner Despite the noise, the news in today’s labour market data is not the slight increase in unemployment. This hasn’t stopped people linking the unemployment increase to Brexit fears, or suggesting that it’s actually a good thing. No, in fact the real story – which for obvious reasons the headline writers failed to get excited about … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Wellbeing and mental health· Time use One billion hours: what’s happening to the working week? 3 February 2016 by Laura Gardiner Towards the end of 2015 the jobs market passed an important-sounding milestone – we now work more than one billion hours each week. This has been wholly driven by strong employment growth because at the individual level average weekly hours have actually fallen slightly over the past year, reversing the upward trend of the previous … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The path to full employment requires a greater focus on inactivity 12 January 2016 by Laura Gardiner If you ask most people where jobs growth comes from they will probably point to reductions in unemployment, that is, people looking for and available to work. Somewhat surprisingly, however, during normal times most new entrants come from ‘economic inactivity’, a group that reports being unavailable for or not actively seeking work for a variety … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Five things we’ve learned from today’s earnings figures (and one thing we haven’t) 18 November 2015 by Laura Gardiner After a longer and deeper pay squeeze than even the most pessimistic of economists would have predicted, 2015 marks the year when pay growth finally returned. Today’s publication of the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) – our least timely but most comprehensive source on employee pay – gives us the opportunity to lift … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The ‘gig economy’ – revolutionising the world of work, or the latest storm in a teacup? 23 October 2015 by Laura Gardiner Listen to some parts of the online media and tech press and you hear that the traditional employee job is on its way out. That’s especially true across the pond, but the issue is generating an increasing amount of heat here in the UK too. Whether it’s selling your crafts on Etsy or Ebay, offering … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Labour market· Pay The wage floor is rising, but what about the self-employed? 5 October 2015 by Laura Gardiner The lively debate around low pay – which has rocketed up the political agenda since the Chancellor unveiled his National Living Wage in July – is one that tends to confine itself to the experience of those in traditional employee jobs. There are good reasons for this, but we shouldn’t be blind to the acute … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The rise and rise (?) of zero hours contracts 2 September 2015 by Laura Gardiner For many, zero hours contracts (ZHCs) are emblematic of the UK’s labour market experience during the financial crash, contributing to stronger-than-expected employment figures but also symbolising rising job insecurity. But with the economic recovery now gaining ground, the key question has been whether they’d fade away or remain as a permanent feature of the labour … Continued READ MORE
Social care· Low pay· Pay Budgeting for the National Living Wage in the social care sector 13 July 2015 by Laura Gardiner The centrepiece of the 2015 Summer Budget – the National Living Wage (NLW) ‘premium’ on the minimum wage for those aged 25 and over – has been rightly welcomed by many as delivering a pay rise to millions of Britain’s low paid workers. However, as with the debate around each annual increase in the National … Continued READ MORE
Pay Much like the British summer, make the most of the earnings boom while it lasts 15 June 2015 by Laura Gardiner and Adam Corlett Ahead of the summer budget early next month, the Chancellor may be hoping for some positive headlines in the employment statistics due on Wednesday. When it comes to earnings, he’s sure to be rewarded. Our analysis suggests that real regular pay will top 2.5 per cent year-on-year growth in this week’s numbers (covering the three … Continued READ MORE
Pay Is a pay boom coming and if not, why not? 14 May 2015 by Laura Gardiner Rarely has the trope that a week is a long time in politics rung truer. But yesterday we learned that an hour is a long time in economics. The latest employment statistics are unambiguously encouraging. Employment rose and unemployment fell, strengthening trends in place over the past couple of years. Perhaps more significantly, rising nominal … Continued READ MORE
Pay What’s holding back nominal wage growth? 17 April 2015 by Laura Gardiner Today’s statistics mark another welcome step along the road in our long-overdue earnings recovery. A gentle improvement in regular pay in the three months to February 2015 (now 1.8 per cent, with the total pay measure that includes bonuses close by at 1.7 per cent), against a backdrop of inflation having fallen to 0 per … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills Hollowing out – deeper than it sounds 23 March 2015 by Laura Gardiner It’s rare that technical economic concepts make their way out of the halls of academia and into the mainstream. Yet the idea that labour markets in advanced economies are increasingly ‘polarising’ between ‘lovely’ and ‘lousy’ jobs – with middle-of-the-road jobs being ‘hollowed out’ and wage inequality rising as a result – is one that has … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay How the exclusion of the self-employed might obscure the 2015 earnings recovery 21 January 2015 by Laura Gardiner Over the past few years growth in self-employment has been a big story – the self-employed account for two thirds of the net change in employment since the pre-recession peak. But this may now be turning a corner; self-employment peaked back in June and has fallen steadily by 79,000 over the last two quarters, while … Continued READ MORE
Social care· Low pay· Pay· Living Wage Better pay for care workers: up-front costs but long-term gains 20 January 2015 by Laura Gardiner There is growing realisation that the race to the bottom in working conditions is becoming a barrier to quality in social care. Low pay, at times below the minimum wage, and unenviable terms are unlikely to deliver the sustainable long-term care system that our ageing society requires. While many accept this, so far we have … Continued READ MORE
Housing Households have been coping remarkably well with high housing costs, but interest rate rises lurk just around the corner 10 December 2014 by Laura Gardiner The lack of affordable housing, particularly in London and the South East, is one of Britain’s most-told misery stories. But less is known about how these challenges differ for various household types and, perhaps more importantly, how people cope with them. New research by the Resolution Foundation seeks to deal with both of these questions. … Continued READ MORE
Pay Are earnings going to rise by more than 3 per cent next year? 12 November 2014 by Laura Gardiner Another BoE inflation report, another set of rosy forecasts for earnings next year. Just as 2014 was supposed to be the year of the pay rise, now it seems 2015 will be the year when things turn positive. And, according to the Bank, wages won’t just creep into positive territory next year, they are going … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay How the changing shape of the UK workforce has started to drag down wages 10 November 2014 by Laura Gardiner It’s clichéd to say that the most certainty you can take from any economist’s prediction is that it will be mistaken, but many got their forecasts for 2014 horribly wrong. At the beginning of this year, commentators were fairly united in hailing the ‘year of the pay rise’, with most expecting the UK’s enduring real … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Cities and regions Break even moment for employment masks regional imbalance 15 October 2014 by Laura Gardiner Today’s employment statistics mark an important point on the long road to recovery from the historically deep downturn we have suffered. After over six years, the working age employment rate has returned to its pre-recession level of 73.0 per cent (though it is still below the February 2005 peak of 73.2 per cent). We have … Continued READ MORE
Housing The ‘housing pinched’: Which UK households are most at risk of falling over the edge? 27 August 2014 by Laura Gardiner Reading the housing headlines recently you could be forgiven for breathing a sigh of relief. House prices have showed signs of cooling in recent months, thought to be partly down to tighter mortgage lending rules that have dampened down demand. In addition, at least outside of the South, private rents have been through a year of below-inflation increases on both government and many commercial indices. … Continued READ MORE
Pay Why our policy-makers have little idea of what workers are really paid 10 July 2014 by Laura Gardiner We are frequently told that earnings are the black spot on the otherwise positive labour market story, but in truth they are also the blind spot. The reason is that none of our official earnings measures captures the growing ranks of the self-employed, who now make up one in seven workers. This seems incredibly lop-sided … Continued READ MORE
Pay Deconstructing the wages data 11 June 2014 by Laura Gardiner It might not hold quite the same broad appeal as the start of the World Cup, but today’s labour market statistics release from the ONS has been hotly anticipated nonetheless, given the centrality of this data to our understanding of the economic recovery and the timing of interest rate increases. The overwhelmingly positive news we’ve … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Laura Gardiner interview on self-employment 15 May 2014 by Laura Gardiner The Resolution Foundation is an independent research and policy organisation with a goal to improve living standards for the 15 million people in Britain on low and middle incomes. To achieve this they conduct rigorous research, analysis and policy development to inform public debates and influence key decision makers in government, the private sector, and … Continued READ MORE