The Resolution Foundation Earnings Outlook Q1 2019

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

In our latest quarterly Earnings Outlook, we focus on two of the biggest changes to the UK labour market over the past two decades – rising self-employment (from 3.4 million in 1999 to 5 million today) and the introduction and ramping up of the legal minimum wage (from £3.60 in 1999 to £8.21 today) – … Continued

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The Resolution Foundation Earnings Outlook Q4 2018

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

In the three months to January 2019, average nominal pay growth was 3.4 per cent, where it had been for the last three months. However, with inflation falling below its 2 per cent target, real pay growth strengthened to 1.4 per cent, the highest since June 2016. Improving pay growth is being driven by a … Continued

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The Resolution Foundation Earnings Outlook Q3 2018

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Our earnings breakdown for Q3 2018 shows that the squeeze on real pay ended in 2018, but with real pay growth still low by historical standards. As usual, pay growth is higher for those changing jobs, with a ‘disloyalty bonus’ of 4 percentage points. Our analysis of pay pressures and slack shows that the labour … Continued

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The Resolution Foundation Earnings Outlook Q2 2018

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

In October there was good news on pay: nominal pay grew by 3.1 per cent in the 12 months to August, the fastest growth since the financial crisis (January 2009). The question is, is such (relatively) strong pay growth likely to be sustained? Nominal pay growth has been building steadily since early 2017, so this … Continued

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The RF Earnings Outlook Q1 2018

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

In Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot the two protagonists wait in vain for the arrival of the titular character. At the moment the UK labour market bears a certain resemblance to the play, with the Bank of England playing the protagonists waiting (perhaps in vain) for more robust wage growth. As this Thursday’s MPC vote … Continued

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The RF Earnings Outlook Q4 2017

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

In Q4 2017 the pay squeeze that had affected the UK economy since the beginning of the year was starting to dissipate, leaving people looking forward to a better (at least in terms of pay growth) 2018. However, the extent to which this year will bring relatively robust growth, or the more anaemic variety, remains … Continued

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