The Resolution Foundation Earnings Outlook Q2 2018

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

In October there was good news on pay: nominal pay grew by 3.1 per cent in the 12 months to August, the fastest growth since the financial crisis (January 2009). The question is, is such (relatively) strong pay growth likely to be sustained? Nominal pay growth has been building steadily since early 2017, so this … Continued

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The RF Earnings Outlook Q1 2018

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

In Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot the two protagonists wait in vain for the arrival of the titular character. At the moment the UK labour market bears a certain resemblance to the play, with the Bank of England playing the protagonists waiting (perhaps in vain) for more robust wage growth. As this Thursday’s MPC vote … Continued

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The RF Earnings Outlook Q4 2017

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

In Q4 2017 the pay squeeze that had affected the UK economy since the beginning of the year was starting to dissipate, leaving people looking forward to a better (at least in terms of pay growth) 2018. However, the extent to which this year will bring relatively robust growth, or the more anaemic variety, remains … Continued

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The RF Earnings Outlook Q3 2017

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

In Q3 2017 labour market observers were looking for signs that nominal pay growth could finally be picking up or that the British job creation machine was running out of steam. There was evidence of both, and the big question for 2018 is whether they’re sustained. The employment rate fell to 75 per cent, from … Continued

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Earnings Outlook Q2 2017

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

This Earnings Outlook looks at the second quarter of 2017. This was a period in which we saw the best and worst of the UK labour market. On the one hand, compared to a year earlier real pay fell by 0.5 per cent; yet on the other hand the unemployment rate hit a low not … Continued

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The RF Earnings Outlook Q1 2017

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Jobs, Skills and Pay

This Earnings Outlook looks at the first quarter of labour market data for 2017. This was a period when the pay squeeze returned with average weekly earnings falling by 0.4 per cent. This return is particularly unwelcome as average earnings are still 3.4 per cent below their pre-crisis peak. For Londoners and younger workers in … Continued

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