Earnings Outlook· Labour market· Pay· Minimum wage Earnings Outlook Q2 2019 29 July 2019 Nye Cominetti Jack Leslie In our Earnings Outlook for 2019 Q2 we suggest that the UK’s 12 year long pay squeeze may be about to come to an end, just in time for the election. However, we also note that for many groups, typical pay is still well below its previous peak, and that although we will soon hit a new peak, that is not the same as recovering all the lost ground. On the prospects for pay growth, we note that the labour market has reached a plateau, with real pay growth and employment stable for a few months. Unfortunately there are some signs that this will not last. We find that vacancies and voluntary job moves are both falling, both of which may ease pressure on employers to raise pay. View all Earnings Outlooks.