On the whole, the 2020s has been a disastrous decade for UK productivity growth. But an under-discussed revival appears to be underway. While the much-maligned Labour Force Survey’s headline number is showing no such pickup, more trustworthy measures of productivity are growing more strongly. Administrative tax data suggests that output per hour grew by 1.1 per cent a year over the two years to Q2 2026 – not just a sharp turnaround from the 0.7 per cent a year fall in the two years before, but also faster than the 0.7 per cent growth rate seen in the late 2010s. It is also broadly in line with the OBR’s revised medium-term assumption for UK productivity growth, bringing the OBR in line with reality arguably for the first time ever. This edition of the Macroeconomic Policy Outlook asks whether the recent productivity pickup is genuine, and what might be driving it.