Afternoon all, It’s been a week of shocks. Boris Johnson can’t handle the truth (or at least gets irritated talking about it) and those making their money via capital gains can very much handle paying lower tax rates than the rest of us. To be fair to the Prime Minister making those very large capital gains, … Continued

Afternoon all, I’m generally anti banks going bust. Doubly so when the rude things do it in Budget week – there’s quite enough going on already. And trebly when it ended up being a bigger Budget that most expected. But we are where we are. For our comprehensive take on the Budget – the forecasts, … Continued

Afternoon all, I for one did not see the Government moving quite so quickly from stopping the boats to stopping the trains. But then again maybe it’s fitting the week managed to squeeze in immigration and HS2 given they have something in common: I’ve lost track of how often I’m told that scrapping (or for that … Continued

Afternoon all,  Apparently Labour had a very cunning plan – a Sue Gray shaped conspiracy to bring down Boris Johnson. Which will be a surprise to anyone whose paid attention to the “more in common with Baldrick than MI5” Labour Party over recent years. It’s probably also news to the police who dished out fines … Continued

Afternoon all, Have I got this right? The same people that did the Brexit deal, the fundamental choice of which was to sell out Unionism, have now decided it was terrible because of what it did to Unionists? AND they’re attacking Rishi Sunak for trying to fix it? Britain might not have any tomatoes but … Continued

Afternoon all, Our labour market inactivity problem has got serious, arriving at the centre of British politics, with Nicola Sturgeon resigning and Labour attempting to involuntarily resign Jeremy Corbyn. Amid that chaos you probably missed another Tory MP’s jumping on the ‘no way I’m standing at the next election’ bandwagon. The Government’s probably minutes away from … Continued

Afternoon all, We did it! Well done Britain avoiding a recession in 2022 with growth in the fourth quarter of… 0.014 per cent. This is what success getting over the line by the skin of your teeth looks like. Just to ensure we don’t get at all perked up by the no recession news, the ONS put out … Continued

Afternoon all, It’s “we might be nearly done hiking these interest rates” week, which is quite a big deal in economics (and anxious mortgagor) land. We’ve got lucky on gas prices (well, less unlucky) and labour markets are starting to cool without massive recessions. Obviously we’re Britain in 2023, so that generally good news has … Continued

Afternoon all, All the best people are having their away days right now – looking forward to ours on Monday. On the downside, we don’t get to head to Chequers or any other country estate for it. But then again none of us are going to have to resign pretty soon afterwards. So that’s a plus. Don’t … Continued

Afternoon all, Hope you’re all feeling suitably levelled-up after yesterday’s jamboree of “Westminster will decide how to transform the economic prospects of your area, via a small heritage/leisure scheme”. The Government’s provided a map so you can see whether you’re getting a token bung long term strategic investment. I’d encourage anyone hoping centralisation at least meant quality control to check … Continued

Afternoon all, Ageing can be hard, so it’s important to celebrate the benefits – such as greater self-knowledge, the children leaving home and the Government/housing market giving you free stuff. For those of you over 50 the latest good news is the Government is considering considering “exempting over-50s returning to work from income tax entirely for six … Continued

Afternoon all – and happy New Year. Now obviously we wish good luck to those of you vowing to diet/exercise or sort out your finances/personality in 2023. But not everyone has opted for the same old self-improvement vows. Let it all hang out seems to be the resolution of many in the first week of … Continued

2022 was a truly horrendous year, dominated by the arrival of double-digit inflation that drove a 3.3 per cent (or £800 per household) hit to real disposable incomes, the biggest annual fall in a century. This has left three-quarters of lower-income working families cutting back this Christmas. Against that difficult backdrop, this note considers what … Continued

Morning all, Now there are lots of reasons to love working at the Resolution Foundation. Its warmth has always been high on my list – that’s always meant great colleagues until this week, when the actual quality of our heating system has moved centre stage in my appreciation. Being in the office kept me alive … Continued

Afternoon all, Anyone else secretly enjoying the cold snap? It’s partly the juxtaposition with the ludicrously warm autumn thus far – good to know the planet isn’t a perma-inferno just yet. Plus London looks great on a cold evening with clear skies (Waterloo Bridge looking east is the place to be). We’ve now entered the … Continued

Afternoon all, Chester has chuntered, giving the government of the day a kicking. Maybe by-elections returning to their rightful role in British politics will reassure the traditionalists who’ve spent the week panicking about the decline in religiosity (it’s less likely to help the racists worrying about quite how white London is). Obviously Labour types should … Continued

Afternoon all, Whether or not football’s your thing, the World Cup is a welcome relief from cost-of-living trauma. Unless you’re one of these fans actually in Qatar paying £12 a pint (or Welsh). The relief is of course fairly dependent on the winning bit, so we’d better see some of that tonight vs. the US. … Continued

Afternoon all, Now this really does need to be the last one. We just can’t keep going at a rate of one a week. I’m so tired I can hardly see, which is why this week’s TOTCs isn’t exactly on time. The problem of course is the policy chaos/u-turn spiral driving fiscal event frequency inflation … Continued

Afternoon all, You know who the best car passengers are? The ones that suggest you might be going a bit too fast, AFTER the mini-Budget you’ve gone straight over the roundabout, through the front window of the local Sainsburys and come to a rest having knocked all the mortgage food products off the shelves. Of course not everything is going … Continued

Afternoon all, It wasn’t what you’d normally call good news from the Bank of England yesterday. Apparently, our incomes will fall by around £800 per household next year. Wonderful. The forecast that we’re a few months in to a two-year long recession is just what we all want to hear. We’re talking about the economy … Continued

  Afternoon all, Sorry TOTCs is slightly later than normal, this morning was taken up with some painful editing of our preview for the Autumn Statement. Painful because of the substance rather than the editing challenge obviously. We may have got a new PM, but the extent to which we haven’t escaped our underlying low … Continued

Afternoon all, When I was a lad the fields were green, the maidens fair and when you bought a new toy Prime Minister they didn’t break the second you started playing with them they started playing with the country. I had to wait until I was eight to get my first new Prime Minister, but my kids (7 … Continued

Afternoon all, British economic policy making is in one of its chaos phases. I’d like these to come a bit less often. ‘I wouldn’t start from here’ isn’t generally the most helpful response to a request for advice. But don’t discount it in all circumstances. There are times when it’s more useful than others i.e. … Continued

Afternoon all, I generally thank my lucky stars that I get paid to keep up with economic and political developments. It’s a massive privilege. But it’s also impossible right now. Another week of ups and downs in the gilt market is translating into the real world: interest rates on some fixed rate mortgages are hitting … Continued

Afternoon all, I hope you’re all holding it together amidst a truly chaotic week. Appreciate it’s hard to keep up and you’re probably already saturated with reading things about the madness, so we’re aiming to provide some light relief with reads that don’t cover floundering pension funds or rising interest rates (though this is a good … Continued