Afternoon all, What could have been, eh? With GDP rising at 0.5% in February, unemployment falling in January and borrowing coming in below forecast, the economic backdrop to Spring could have been so different. But trouble over the water continues to derail this Government in more ways than one….and it was fascinating to hear Jeremy Hunt’s honest reflections on dealing with an energy price shock at … Continued

Afternoon all, Hopefully the presence of this email in your inbox on a Thursday renders it an honorary Friday, to help you ring in the long weekend. Energy bills are still in the news, and this week’s Chart of the week shows exactly who will pay the steepest price when the next shock hits. Spoiler: … Continued

Afternoon all, Housing’s been on my mind this week. Private renters face the highest housing costs. For many social housing could offer the best route out, and for others it would be a helping hand onto the property ladder. Speaking at the Housing Finance Conference in Liverpool, I was struck by the tricky trade-offs between prioritising current … Continued

Afternoon all, When Zack Polanski and Liz Truss agree on something, hold onto your hats. A (to me) surprising number of people have come out this week in favour of a reintroduction of the sort of energy price cap scheme seen in 2022. Are memories really so short? In dealing with an energy price shock the Government faces some tricky trade-offs between generosity and universality of support, and … Continued

Afternoon all, The conflict in the Middle East and turmoil in the markets is throwing up questions for a Government committed to tackling the cost of living. The easy questions are whether they should pull any big fiscal levers quickly, and whether the best way to provide cost of living support is by delaying a … Continued

Afternoon all, How much mileage can we drag out of a non-event? Not satisfied with a sleepless night for our overnight report we are continuing to bring you top-notch analysis of the ‘nothing to see here’ Spring Forecast. If you want even more Forecast chat, listen to my Spring Forecast themed conversation with Giles Wilkes and James Smith, where we … Continued

Afternoon all, Turns out there are green shoots in Manchester after all. For those in need of a reminder that politics isn’t all there is to life, more millennials can recognise Pikachu than have heard of all but six sitting MPs (of current party leaders only Starmer and Farage have attained Pikachu level-fame). More seriously, we shouldn’t let by-elections … Continued

Morning all, Resolution Foundation is a great place to work – albeit not a guaranteed route to the OBR despite what you may have heard – and if you know of any bright young sparks who might be suited to the think-tank life, please do point them in the direction of our outreach session elucidating how to break … Continued

Afternoon all, It’s a pleasure to be in your inboxes once again. We published a book this week called Unsung Britain. It summarises over 18 months of work during which we considered how to improve the material realities of the 13 million working-age families across the poorest half of the country. We decided to call the group our book … Continued

Morning all, Before this week the odds of a change before Easter were low, but that moved to a knife-edge on Thursday. I’m talking, of course, about the shift in interest rate expectations after four members of the MPC unexpectedly voted for a cut. It was certainly a dramatic week, delivering a Resolution Foundation first – we … Continued

Morning all, In case you missed it, we published a cracking paper earlier this week laying out improvements that can be made to the Universal Credit (UC) system without breaking the bank. UC already support claimants with childcare costs, for example, but providing that money up front would remove a barrier to work. Claimants who have been … Continued

Afternoon all, Ruth did warn you – and now it’s my turn to drop something thought‑provoking into your inbox. It’s been a lively week in the worlds of politics and economics, and we’ve pulled together the sharpest takes. If the spectacle in Davos has worried you, Something for the Weekend may offer an antidote – your top reasons to stay optimistic. There’s plenty more to get stuck into: fresh research on intergenerational inequality, the … Continued

Afternoon all, Big week for turning around in Westminster. The highlight (so far as we’re concerned) was a welcome upside surprise on monthly growth – the no-fun caveat for which is that on more reliable longer-term measures we’re actually growing even slower than our dismal recent track record. For those wanting to know more about how to pull those levers, we have a sneak peak of our big growth paper below that we’ll be launching on Monday. If you’re a big fan of entertaining but informative newsletters (which, of course you … Continued

Afternoon all, Happy new year! Keir Starmer kicked it off talking about cost of living, and it was a pleasure to do the same on a special episode of More or Less (and to tick ‘meeting Tim Harford’ off the geek bucket list!). Since we recorded it before the Prime Minister’s comments, find a break-down of rhetoric … Continued

What a difference a year doesn’t make. This time last year the Government had just announced huge tax rises, having previously said they weren’t coming; trade wonks were wondering what Donald Trump’s next tariff policy would be; and Labour politicians awaited the May elections with trepidation. Yet this sense of déjà vu is only part of … Continued

Morning all, It’s nearly Christmas which means it’s time for three things: a quiz of the year, festive reflections and something to look forward to in 2026. First, you don’t want to add to your reading list. But I couldn’t believe you wouldn’t want another chart. So this year the Resolution Christmas card brings you … Continued

Afternoon all, I’ve been taking a smidgen of time for post-Budget recovery this week, so can unusually provide dear TOTC readers with a cultural recommendation. All My Sons lives up to the cast and tells the tale of regrets of a businessman who during the war prioritised the temptations of capitalism over safety. It certainly put the findings of the Covid Counter Fraud Commissioner this week somewhat in perspective. It is at least nothing … Continued

Afternoon all, It hasn’t been a smooth Budget process and, with apologies, we’d like to issue a correction – our Budget special erroneously stated that new policy on welfare over the course of this Parliament had increased spending by “£0.7bn in 29-30″. The correct number is in fact a drop of £0.5 billion – mea … Continued

Afternoon all, As someone who has worked with him closely from the Treasury side let me tell you something – Richard Hughes can be very annoying. He is stubborn in the face of lobbying. He unites with his team even when they make mistakes. He argues with the fervour of someone who is in it … Continued

Afternoon all, Five sleeps to go…and finally the Budget speculation, at least, will be over. I hope to see many of you at our morning-after event. The Government’s proposal to end for-profit ticket sales met with mixed reactions this week – never fear, our Budget reactions will always remain free (but have been known to sell … Continued

Afternoon all, It’s not unusual for Budget plans and numbers to change up until the last minute. But there are three things to take from this morning’s news that last week’s rumoured Income Tax rise isn’t happening anymore. First, none of it quite makes sense. Yes, the economic forecast may be better than originally feared, … Continued

Afternoon all, Plug in baby – what a week. We published our pre-budget analysis – Black Holes and Consolidations – and I put out my first Budget Muse-ing on why there’s a strong case for putting up income taxes. The Chancellor stole our thunder though, confirming we’re going to see an Uprising in taxes. But could OBR revisions to wage … Continued

Afternoon all, The printing-presses never stop at RF Towers – we’ve published four briefings since I last appeared in your inbox, ranging from day one frights to half-measures on poverty reduction (more on that in Chart of the Week…). The Budget-heads among you will surely have already signed up to our pre-Budget briefing on Tuesday, with a focus on housing coming the week after. We’ll be … Continued

Afternoon all, Hopefully half-term will put a dampener on the “six-seven” thing, which I’m baffled to report has reached London schools. It is an interesting example of the internet-ification of playground slang – as this teacher-penned article noted: “pupils in Cornwall and Cumbria are just as likely to shout “Skibidi Toilet” as those in London”. In less … Continued

Morning all, Let’s start with a wonkhack tip – if you’re going to be grilled at the Treasury Select Committee, I highly recommend bringing a phone a friend panel as strong as the one that accompanied me on Tuesday. We spent the first half discussing the need to simplify and reform the tax system to boost … Continued