The RF Earnings Outlook Q2 2016

The second quarter of 2016 marked both the introduction of the National Living Wage and the vote to leave the European Union. There are tentative signs that the former has led to strong shared pay growth without affecting aggregate unemployment, but more data will be needed. Referendum effects are not yet visible, but Q2 2016 – and the labour market trends up to this date – may be considered the baseline against which any impacts can be assessed.