Economy 2030
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Skills

Train in Vain?

Skills, tasks, and training in the UK labour market

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Human capital and skills are important for improving the UK’s labour market and economic performance. This note assesses how the skills needed in the UK labour market have changed over past decades, and how well placed our system of training – and particularly on-the-job training – is to help us adapt to these changes. Some … Continued

Constrained choices

Understanding the prevalence of part-time work among low-paid workers in the UK

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This is the fifth output from the Resolution Foundation which contributes to the Young person’s future health inquiry. It discusses the concentration of part-time work among low-paid workers (including young people), and explores the reasons why low-paid workers work part-time, and the extent to which low-paid workers experience agency over their working hours. It draws … Continued

Help today, squeeze tomorrow

Putting the 2022 Autumn Statement in context

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This report presents Resolution Foundation’s analysis of the 2022 Autumn Statement. In the face of grim economic and fiscal forecasts, Jeremy Hunt announced energy support today but tougher times tomorrow, with stealth tax rises for the middle and top of the income distribution followed by spending cuts after the next election.

Economy 2030

Navigating Economic Change

Lessons from abroad and history

As the UK is buffeted by the economic shocks and challenges of the 2020s, the Resolution Foundation and LSE Economy 2030 Inquiry is publishing a series of essays examining how policy makers from a range of advanced economies, including the UK in the recent past, have managed periods of disruptive economic change.

One statement, two challenges

How the Autumn Statement is likely to respond to weaker public finances and high energy bills

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It’s been brought forward, delayed and renamed, but the Autumn Statement is finally happening this week. While the timing has been uncertain, from the coverage of recent weeks you’d think its purpose was a very clear story of two Prime Ministers: Liz Truss created a fiscal black hole and Rishi Sunak is now filling it … Continued

An intergenerational audit for the UK

2022

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Our fourth Intergenerational Audit – part of the ESRC-funded Connecting Generations partnership – provides an analysis of economic living standards across generations in Britain. In so doing, it analyses the latest data across four domains:  Household incomes and costs;  Jobs, skills and pay;  Wealth and assets; and  Housing costs and security.  In each of these domains, … Continued

Economy 2030
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Technological change

Adopt, adapt and improve

A brief look at the interplay between labour markets and technological change in the UK

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Worries that jobs will be lost to automation are not new, but have been heightened since the release of Frey and Osborne’s 2013 study, which warned that nearly half of jobs in the US were at ‘high risk’ of automation. Nearly a decade on, this short briefing note looks at both the current and longer-term … Continued

Policing prejudice

Enforcing anti-discrimination laws in the workplace

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This briefing note is part of a three-year programme of research exploring labour market enforcement generously funded by Unbound Philanthropy. In it, we investigate the scale and nature of workplace discrimination, and consider how anti-discrimination rules can be enforced to greater effect.

The art of expectations management

A bleak outlook from the Bank of England as it scales back rate hike expectations

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The Bank of England has raised rates by 75 basis points today – the eighth successive increase and the largest since 1989 – to 3 per cent, the highest since November 2008. Despite this historic rise, the big news was that the Bank signalled very clearly that market expectations for further rate rises had gone … Continued

Mind the (credibility) gap

Autumn Statement preview

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In our Autumn-Statement preview slidepack, we present new analysis that explores the economic outlook ahead of the Autumn Statement on 17 November, and the critical decisions that the new Prime Minister and Chancellor must make. With the latest political turmoil triggered by attempts to completely rewrite economic policy, Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are under … Continued

Sticking plasters

An assessment of discretionary welfare support

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This briefing note looks at discretionary welfare support in recent years, including crisis provision, Discretionary Housing Payments, and more recently the Household Support Fund. Our analysis shows that discretionary support is increasingly being used as a sticking plaster for broader benefits cuts.

Cutting tax cuts

Jeremy Hunt rewrites Government’s economic policy

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The new Chancellor has rewritten UK economic policy in order to reduce the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates and the Treasury to deliver spending cuts. He has now reversed 60 per cent of the tax cuts announced less than four weeks ago and committing to scale back support for energy … Continued

Interesting times

Assessing the impact of rising interest rates on mortgagors’ living standards

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R. I. P. low interest rates: the cost of borrowing is seriously on the rise. Inflationary pressures in the economy have been pushing interest rates up for some time, and events since the Government’s mini-budget in September increased market expectations of how high interest rates will rise, and brought forward the date at which they … Continued

The Long Squeeze

Benefit uprating policy for April 2023

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To offset the impact of tax cuts on the public finances, the Government is considering how it might cut spending. One option that has been discussed is the possibility of raising some benefits in line with earnings rather than inflation next April. This paper explores what this might entail, the potential savings and impacts, and … Continued

Labour Market Outlook Q3 2022

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In the aftermath of the pandemic, the emergence of long Covid has increased focus on the relationship between work and ill health. But the prevalence of long Covid, thought to affect around 1 million workers, is lower than the pre-pandemic increase in the number of working-age disabled people (up by 2.3 million since 2013), with … Continued

What next?

The impact of Trussonomics, tax cuts and market turmoil

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The last few days have seen a radical reshaping of the Government’s economic policy and a radical reaction from financial markets. Out have gone both Treasury orthodoxy and the legacy of the Johnson premiership, and in are lower taxes, higher borrowing – and higher borrowing costs as spooked markets respond. Will this new strategy boost … Continued

Cover for mini budget analysis, Blowing the Budget

Blowing the budget

Assessing the implications of the September 2022 fiscal statement

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The Chancellor decided to blow the budget in his first fiscal statement, bringing forward a £45 billion package of tax cuts, the biggest for 50 years. In this briefing note, we show that today’s Government is no longer fiscally conservative nor courting the Red Wall. Instead, debt is on course to rise in each and every year of the forecast period, and the focus has shifted to the South of England, where the beneficiaries of these tax cuts are more likely to be living.

Housing Outlook Q3 2022

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Attention has understandably been focused on energy bills in recent months, but other price pressures have also been building of late. With large increases in private rents reported over the last year, this Housing Outlook reflects on the short- and long-term challenges facing the 4.4 million private renting households in England today. Private rents for … Continued

A blank cheque

An analysis of the new cap on energy prices

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Liz Truss’s first major act as Prime Minister was to set out a huge energy support package to reduce the scale of the living standards’ catastrophe this winter, with the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) as its highlight. The EPG will mean that annual energy prices for the typical household are capped at £2,500 for two … Continued

In at the deep end

The living standards crisis facing the new Prime Minister

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This paper sets out projections for household living standards through to 2026-27. With the UK facing the largest two-year real income fall in at least a century, these forecasts make it clear that a big policy response will be needed from the new government.

A chilling crisis

Policy options to deal with soaring energy prices

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This briefing note, released just ahead of the announcement of the winter 2022 energy price cap level, looks at the implications of an unprecedented jump in energy costs on low-to-middle income households, stresses the need for urgent and novel policy thinking to lessen this blow, and outlines how this could take shape.

Cutting back to keep warm

Why low-income households will have to cut back on spending by three times as much as high-income households this winter

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This winter, low-income households will have to reduce their spending by three times as much as high-income households in order to afford their energy bills – a situation that is particularly concerning now that we know energy bills in January-March 2023 are set to be an annualised £4,266, rather than the £2,800 expected earlier this … Continued

Slower for longer

The Bank of England tightens monetary policy again and warns that the outlook is bleak

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The Bank of England today unveiled the biggest rise in interest rates since 1995 along with plans to bring down the stock of Quantitative Easing (QE) by £80 billion over the next year. But the real news in today’s announcements was the extent to which the central bank expects the cost of living crisis to … Continued

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