Brexit & trade· Economic growth Trump Tariff Turmoil The impact of higher US tariffs and the risk of a global recession 14 April 2025 by James Smith and Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites President Trump’s tariff announcements have taken a wrecking ball to the global system of international trade, pushing US tariff rates back to early 20th century levels. Following the suspension of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, the UK’s exposure to automotive and possible “major” pharmaceutical tariffs, means we are set to be affected by more than many other countries, … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Migration Precarious prospects Understanding precarious work among foreign-born workers 14 April 2025 by Hannah Slaughter and Imogen Stone This briefing note examines the experiences of precarious work among foreign-born workers, how poor enforcement of rules can drag down standards for UK-born workers too, and what policy can do to respond. READ MORE
Net zero Turning up the heat Making the home heating transition work for low-income households 10 April 2025 by Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall Decarbonising home heating is one of the knottiest parts of the net zero transition, with big implications on families’ finances and behaviour. This report examines progress so far and discusses what policy needs to do so that families on lower incomes can benefit from changing how they keep warm at home. READ MORE
Living standards· Public spending At your service? Why the 2025 Spending Review must reckon with the distribution of public service use 9 April 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Emily Fry and Zachary Leather Post-Covid, the British state is estimated to have reached a historic high of 45 per cent of the size of the economy. Past strategies to cope with increasing pressure on public services such as cutting defence to help fund growing health and welfare spending, and cuts to ‘unprotected’ public services after the financial crisis, have … Continued READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Yanked away Accounting for the post-pandemic productivity divergence between Britain and America 8 April 2025 by Simon Pittaway Britain’s record of productivity growth in the 2010s was dismal. But halfway through the 2020s things appear to have got worse not better, with official data likely understating the scale of Britain’s ongoing productivity crisis. America has been on a different track so far this decade. It is the only G7 economy where productivity growth … Continued READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy How to do industrial strategy A guide for practitioners 7 April 2025 by David Willetts This paper sets out a practical approach to industrial strategy in the UK, focused on boosting private investment and productivity. It proposes twenty policy tools spanning sectors, technologies, places, funding and state capability, with a clear roadmap for policymakers. READ MORE
Tax· Welfare Happy new tax year 2025 Tax, utility bill and social security changes in April 2025 3 April 2025 by Adam Corlett and Lalitha Try April brings with it a series of tax, benefit and bill rises. We examine what these changes will mean for households and the overall outlook for disposable incomes in 2025-26. READ MORE
Incomes· Low pay· Living Wage Minimum wage, maximum pressure? The impact of 2025’s minimum wage and employer NICs increases 30 March 2025 by Nye Cominetti and Greg Thwaites Looking ahead to the future of the minimum wage, we make four recommendations to the Government and the Low Pay Commission (LPC). First, tax policy should go with the grain of minimum wage policy, not against it… READ MORE
Living standards· Budgets & fiscal events· Welfare Unsung Britain bears the brunt Putting the 2025 Spring Statement in context 27 March 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Emily Fry and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This briefing note analyses the choices the Government has made in the context of an awkward backdrop to the 2025 Spring Statement. READ MORE
Universal Credit· Wellbeing and mental health A dangerous road? Examining the ‘Pathways to Work’ Green Paper 19 March 2025 by Mike Brewer and Alex Clegg and Louise Murphy Yesterday’s Green Paper marks a serious attempt by the Government to tackle two major concerns: the growing spend on disability benefits, and the large number of people who are not working through ill-health. [1] The proposals to tackle the former go much further than reforms suggested by the previous Government; between 800,000 and 1.2 million … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The headroom bind Spring Statement 2025 preview 17 March 2025 by James Smith and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this slide pack we preview the upcoming Spring Statement, assessing the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of this key economic-policy event. We focus on the news since the Autumn Budget and the implications of different policy choices, putting the Chancellor’s upcoming decisions in a broader context. READ MORE
Wellbeing and mental health· Welfare Delivering the undeliverable Five principles to guide policy makers through reforming incapacity and disability benefits 6 March 2025 by Louise Murphy The Government is set to announce a “radical” Green Paper on health-related benefit reform this Spring, and more immediate benefit cuts are expected ahead of the Spring Statement on 26 March. The backdrop is fast-rising spending on working-age health-related benefits: spending is set to rise by £32bn between 2019-20 and 2029-30, from 1.3% to 2.2% … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Unstable Pay New estimates of earnings volatility in the UK 4 March 2025 by Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Stephen P. Jenkins This report uses a newly available dataset – payroll data held by HM Revenue and Customs on over 250,000 working-age people covering April 2014 to March 2019 – to look at monthly and weekly volatility in employee pre-tax earnings. It is one of a very few UK studies to look at high-frequency earnings volatility on … Continued READ MORE
Net zero The grass is greener on the net zero side What the Seventh Carbon Budget tells us about the net zero transition 26 February 2025 by Zachary Leather In today’s Seventh Carbon Budget, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) recommends that, by 2038-42, the UK should reduce its emissions by 87 per cent on 1990 levels. To reach this, we must enter a new era of climate policy in which changes to families’ spending patterns will play a crucial role, primarily by swapping their … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty Turning the tide What it will take to reduce child poverty in the UK 26 February 2025 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett Ahead of the Government’s Child Poverty Strategy, which promises to bring about “an enduring reduction in child poverty”, this report looks at what might be needed to achieve this welcome goal in the face of significant headwinds. READ MORE
Unsung Britain· Incomes· Living standards Money, money, money The shifting mix of income sources for poorer households over the last 30 years 17 February 2025 by Lalitha Try This briefing note examines the components of income for low-to-middle income families. It considers how income from earnings and benefits have changed over the last 30 years, and how fixed costs including taxes and housing costs have reduced the income available to low-to-middle income families. READ MORE
Net zero· Living standards· Prices & consumption Sunny day savings Assessing Government support for solar panels 13 February 2025 by Zachary Leather The new Government’s plan to decarbonise the electricity system brings with it the lofty aim of tripling total solar capacity by the end of the decade. Although much of this will be driven by large-scale installations, ministers are also hoping for a “rooftop revolution” that could see millions more homes topped with solar panels by … Continued READ MORE
Housing Heritage and home Investigating ethnic inequalities in housing affordability 6 February 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Felicia Odamtten Britain, today, is a more plural country than ever before. But although recent polling has showed that the country has become more accepting over time, there is still ample evidence that significant ethnic inequalities exist. This note explores an ethnic inequality that has been largely under-researched to date: housing affordability. READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2025 30 January 2025 by Simon Pittaway and James Smith It has been a bleak winter for the Government’s hopes that the economy might turn a corner. Markets have been volatile, with the cost of government borrowing rising to its highest level since July 2008 with the pound falling sharply. And there are signs that growth has hit a brick wall, with GDP flat in … Continued READ MORE
Wealth & assets What’s up? Five key takeaways from new data on household wealth on the eve of the cost of living crisis 24 January 2025 by Molly Broome and Simon Pittaway Today’s release of long-awaited data from the Wealth and Assets Survey (WAS) allows us to finally shed more light on family finances during the Covid-19 pandemic. It shows that total household wealth continued to grow faster than the size of the economy – a trend dating back to the mid-1980s. Total household wealth reached a … Continued READ MORE
Social mobility Are universities worth it? A review of the evidence and policy options 20 January 2025 by David Willetts Young graduates earn £5,000 more annually than non-graduates, but that premium is lower than it was 10 years ago. The real earnings of young graduates have been broadly flat over the last decade, similar to earnings overall, whereas non-graduate earnings have been boosted by the minimum wage. But graduates individually do continue to enjoy rises … Continued READ MORE
Housing The Resolution Foundation Housing Outlook Q1 2025 15 January 2025 by Cara Pacitti Right to Buy has been a cornerstone of housing policy in England since its introduction in 1980, and has enabled over two million council tenants to purchase their homes at a substantial discount. The scheme has boosted home ownership and democratised wealth, especially for early buyers, but the long-term failure to replace the homes sold … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption Whose price is it anyway? Comparing the spending power of low-to-middle income families in Britain and abroad 13 January 2025 by Zaynah Janan and Simon Pittaway A long-standing finding is that British households on low-to-middle incomes are poorer than their counterparts in many advanced economies.[1] This result comes from comparing the incomes of this group to price levels in their respective countries. But these price measures typically reflect the spending of all families, not just those on low-to-middle incomes. In this … Continued READ MORE
Demographics Ageing in the fast and slow lane Examining geographic gaps in ageing 8 January 2025 by Charlie McCurdy Like most countries, the UK is ageing – over the past five decades its median age has risen from 34 to 41. This deep demographic trend has all sorts of implications for public policy, not least the need to find greater resources to provide care for a growing elderly population. What is less well appreciated is that this ageing is playing out differently in different parts of the country – both in terms of places’ age profile, but also in terms of the rate at which places are ageing. This report explores these trends and draws out some implications for local public services. READ MORE
Living standards Public pivot How a growing state will shape the living standards outlook for 2025 7 January 2025 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites 2025 will be a year with a bigger role for the state. Jeremy Hunt cut taxes in his last two Budgets and planned to pay for them with real-terms cuts to public spending in many areas. Rachel Reeves’s October Budget reversed these plans, pivoting to increasing spending on public services as a share of the … Continued READ MORE
