The Chancellor yesterday delivered an Autumn Statement with a few big ticket pre-election giveaways, and welcome policy measures to address problems such as our tax system’s bias against working-age earnings, our benefit system’s failure to keep pace with fast-rising rents, and firms’ weak incentives to invest. But the Autumn Statement failed to end a wider … Continued

The Chancellor has spent almost all of the near £90 billion of fiscal good news handed to him by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), mainly on tax cuts well-targeted at investment and earnings. But these were funded by handing whoever wins the next election implausible plans to cut public spending, the Resolution Foundation said … Continued

CPI inflation fell by more than expected to 4.6 per cent in October – its lowest level since October 2021, and the largest annual fall in more than 40 years. But with overall prices rising by 16 per cent over this two-year period, and energy costs rising by 49 per cent, families are still feeling … Continued

Private sector pay growth has almost halved in recent months, suggesting that higher interest rates are bringing about a turn in the labour market, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday) in response to the latest data. Headline nominal regular average weekly earnings grew by 7.7 per cent on the year – down on the previous … Continued

The UK economy was flat in the third quarter of 2023, highlighting the scale of the challenge facing the country in delivering sustained economic growth over the coming decade, the Resolution Foundation said in response to the latest ONS data. The economy unexpectedly expanded by 0.2 per cent on the month in September, avoiding a … Continued

Stickier-than-expected inflation is leading to higher tax receipts and lower borrowing that will increase the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom to around £13 billion in his Autumn Statement. But this extra headroom is a ‘fiscal illusion’ founded on pretending the higher inflation that boosts tax revenues won’t push up spending too, according to new Resolution Foundation research … Continued

Stronger than expected wage growth means the National Living Wage (NLW) could rise to around £11.46 an hour next April – well above the £11 suggested by the Chancellor earlier this month, according to a new Resolution Foundation briefing published today (Saturday). The briefing – which uses the Low Pay Commission’s methodology to calculate what … Continued

Britain’s earnings distribution is bulging in the middle, as the share of both low- and high-paid employees continues to decline, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday) in response to the ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE). The latest ASHE data – the most authoritative statistics on what is happening to pay packets across … Continued

Delayed labour market data showed that the labour market continued to cool over the summer, with unemployment up and employment down. However, the poor quality of this data will hamper key decisions, including the Bank of England’s on interest rates and the Government’s on labour market inactivity, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday). The latest … Continued

The last set of public sector finance data to be included in the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Autumn Statement forecasts shows that borrowing is already close to £20 billion below the OBR’s previous forecast this year, but the impact of higher interest rates will worsen the medium-term fiscal outlook, the Resolution Foundation said today (Friday) … Continued

Britain’s macroeconomic policy framework is largely unchanged since the 1990s, and now needs an overhaul to tackle the risk of an unsustainable ratcheting up of debt that will hamper its ability to respond to economic shocks or fund public services, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday). Built to last – the 46th report from The … Continued

Progress on getting inflation back down to target stalled in September as CPI inflation remained at 6.7 per cent, with a welcome monthly fall in food costs offset by rising petrol prices, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). CPI inflation remained unchanged in September, defying market expectations of a slight fall. However, a big fall … Continued

National Infrastructure Assessment rightly identifies the need for higher, more stable, and better prioritised public investment across Britain Commenting on the National Infrastructure Commission’s second national infrastructure assessment, published today (Wednesday), Torsten Bell, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation, said: “Britain needs to invest more to underpin its growth and net zero transition. This authoritative … Continued

Continuing fall in employment and vacancy levels mean that a big question going into the autumn is how long Britain’s mini pay recovery will last, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday). The latest pay, vacancies and employee jobs data from the ONS – crucial data on employment, unemployment and inactivity will be published next Tuesday … Continued

Scrapping the uprating of working-age benefits in line with prices next year would reduce the incomes of nine million households by an average of £470 and push an additional 400,000 children into absolute poverty, according to new research published today (Saturday) by the Resolution Foundation. The CPI inflation figure for September, published next Wednesday and … Continued

A higher outlook for inflation since the Budget last March means that the Government’s six-year freeze to Income Tax and National Insurance thresholds is set to raise £40 billion a year by the time it is fully rolled out in 2027-28, making it Britain’s biggest tax rise on incomes in at least 50 years, new … Continued

Strong tax revenues have helped public borrowing come in £11.4 billion lower than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast in the financial year to date. But while inflation is flattering the public finances today, it is putting even greater pressure on public services whose budgets will need to be revisited in the near future, … Continued

The big income falls that unemployment brings in Britain hold workers back from finding better jobs, deterring them from taking a new job that might not work out or holding on for the right job when unemployed. But a new unemployment insurance scheme could help to address this problem, according to major new Resolution Foundation … Continued

A surprise fall in the UK’s inflation rate to 6.7 per cent in August will strengthen the case that interest rates are at or near peak, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). The latest inflation data was well below the Bank’s forecast of 7.1 per cent – offering payback after several months of disappointing data … Continued

Greater Manchester is still at the foothills of its economic revival, and progress needs turbo-charging because on current trends it will take almost a century to reduce its productivity gap with London to a reasonable point, according to major new research published today (Tuesday). A Tale of Two Cities: Part 2, Greater Manchester – the … Continued

Britain’s ‘twin second cities’ can and must lie at the centre of national efforts to restart growth – but that means avoiding wishful thinking about the scale of change required, being distracted by Birmingham’s immediate financial struggles, or complacent in the face of Manchester’s nascent success, according to major new Resolution Foundation research published today … Continued

The biggest employment fall (down 207,000) outside of a recession on record offers the clearest sign yet that rising interest rates are cooling the labour market, but the recent pay spike will cause a headache for the Government by increasing the cost of the Triple Lock, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday). The latest labour … Continued

Typical working-age households are on track for a year of income stagnation in the run-up to the next election, and poorer families are set for further income falls, as tax rises, the end of cost-of-living payments and higher housing costs offset an improving economic outlook, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Wednesday). The … Continued

Major reforms are needed to tackle low standards, unsafe working conditions and minimal progression opportunities that affect too many of Britain’s 34 million workers – and the focus should be on innovative new sector-specific ‘Good Work Agreements’, according to major new Resolution Foundation research published today (Monday). Innovation Nation – the 41st report from The … Continued

The Ofgem energy price cap will fall to £1,923 from October for a typical household, but over one-in-three households across England – 7.2 million in total – will face higher bills this winter than last, highlighting the urgency of further government support for hard-pressed families, the Resolution Foundation said today (Friday). The Foundation notes that … Continued