Worse than expected government borrowing serves as a reminder to the new Chancellor of the fiscal challenges ahead

Higher spending has left government borrowing £3.2 billion higher than the OBR’s last forecast three months into the new financial year, highlighting the scale of the fiscal challenge facing the new Chancellor ahead of her first Budget this Autumn, the Resolution Foundation said today (Friday). The latest ONS data showed that borrowing was £14.5 billion … Continued

UK wage growth still too hot to handle for the Bank of England

Real wages are growing at their fastest rate outside of the pandemic in over a decade. This is welcome news for workers, but less so for monetary policy makers looking for signs of inflationary pressures, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday). The latest ONS labour market statistics show that wage growth has been resilient amid … Continued

Economic growth is rightly at the heart of new government’s legislative programme – but tough decisions lie ahead on reforms to the workplace, housing market and electricity grid

 Boosting economic growth rightly lies at the heart of the new Government’s legislative agenda, with at least a dozen of the 40 Bills announced in the King’s Speech centred around that welcome objective. But bold ambition must be matched with careful implementation if the Government is to deliver its economic reform agenda successfully, the Resolution … Continued

Almost two-in-five large families are now affected by the two-child limit – and the majority are set to fall into poverty when the policy is fully rolled out

Around 38 per cent of all large families (with at least three children) were affected by the two-child limit on benefit support in April 2024, and the policy is set to push the majority of large families below the poverty line by the end of the parliament, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday) in response … Continued

Labour market backdrop to the election is average weekly wages growing by just £16 since 2010, as parties take contrasting approaches to work in their manifestos

The labour market backdrop to the election is a prolonged pay squeeze that has left real average wages today just £16 a week higher than in 2010, a job market struggling to recreate the 2010s boom, and the main parties taking very different approach to the world of work, according to new Resolution Foundation research … Continued

Curbing the £20 billion rise in working-age incapacity and disability benefit spending is a task for the NHS and employers, not just the Treasury and DWP

Addressing rising incapacity and disability benefit spending will be a key task for whoever wins the next election. But with the increase driven by Britain ageing, becoming less healthy and experiencing more disability, politicians will need to focus on the underlying causes of a rising caseload, not just on restricting the eligibility and generosity of … Continued

Inflation returns to target for the first time in three years – but concerns about higher prices and strong services inflation remain

CPI inflation has fallen back to the Bank of England’s target of 2 per cent for the first time since July 2021 – a welcome return to normality – but worries about the legacy of high prices and stubborn underlying inflation remain, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). The biggest downward contribution to the fall … Continued

Britain has a welcome new policy consensus on housing, but it also needs new cash to make a lasting difference

A welcome new political consensus is emerging on housing, with the Conservative and Labour manifestos both combining support for first-time buyers with stretching housebuilding targets. But the lack of cash for affordable housing will make these targets hard to hit, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Wednesday). Home truths – the latest Resolution … Continued

Labour manifesto promises biggest shake-up of the workplace in a generation, against backdrop of further tax rises and cuts to public services

The Labour Party is proposing the biggest shake-up of the workplace in a generation, with the laudable aim of boosting the quality of work, which will demand careful consultation and implementation given the scale of change proposed. This boldness contrasts with a politically cautious approach to the public finances, which means a future Labour Chancellor … Continued

Conservative manifesto proposals would mean tax cuts of £170 for a typical employee – but plans rest on £33 billion of spending cuts in order to get debt falling

Tax changes pledged in the Conservative Party manifesto today (Tuesday) would mean a typical employee seeing their personal tax bill fall by £170 in 2028-29. But these pledges rely on making £12 billion of welfare cuts that recent history suggests will not be achievable over the next Parliament. This, along with £21 billion of cuts … Continued

Cooling labour market means next government will have to tackle the problem of falling employment, not falling inflation

The UK labour market continues to cool, with the employment rate only just above its mid-pandemic low point, suggesting that kickstarting jobs growth will be a major task for the next government, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday) in response to the latest ONS labour market statistics. The latest data showed widespread signs of cooling, … Continued

Britain’s economic growth has been flattered by a booming population – but rising productivity holds key to stronger growth in the next parliament

The UK’s middle-of-the-pack record on economic growth since 2010 has been flattered by the population growing by six million people. But Britain will need to turnaround its dire productivity record and leverage its services strengths if it wants raise growth and boost living standards in the 2020s, according to new research published today (Sunday) by … Continued

Big rows over small pledges risk missing wider uncertainties that could leave the next government confronting a £12 billion black hole in the public finances

The narrow focus of the election campaign on relatively small spending pledges by the main political parties risks missing bigger economic uncertainties that the next government may need to confront, including a possible £12 billion black hole in the public finances from a productivity downgrade, higher market interest rates and infected-blood compensation, according to new … Continued

Britain’s job recovery falters, but its mini pay recovery continues

The UK’s economic slowdown last year has caused Britain’s jobs recovery to falter, with its post-pandemic workforce shrinking by the equivalent by the equivalent of one million workers. But this hasn’t yet fed through into pay packets, with real wages growing at their fastest in rate in over two years, the Resolution Foundation said today … Continued

Workers earning more while producing less is affordable thanks to falling import prices and pension deficits – but it won’t last

Falling pension costs and import prices have temporarily severed the link between productivity and wage growth in the UK, allowing real wages to rise without putting further pressure on inflation. But this ‘unproductive wage growth’ won’t last, according to new research published today (Monday) by the Resolution Foundation. The Foundation’s latest Macroeconomic Policy Outlook examines … Continued

No more press releases found