Strong tax revenues have helped public borrowing come in £11.4 billion lower than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast in the financial year to date. But while inflation is flattering the public finances today, it is putting even greater pressure on public services whose budgets will need to be revisited in the near future, … Continued

The big income falls that unemployment brings in Britain hold workers back from finding better jobs, deterring them from taking a new job that might not work out or holding on for the right job when unemployed. But a new unemployment insurance scheme could help to address this problem, according to major new Resolution Foundation … Continued

A surprise fall in the UK’s inflation rate to 6.7 per cent in August will strengthen the case that interest rates are at or near peak, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). The latest inflation data was well below the Bank’s forecast of 7.1 per cent – offering payback after several months of disappointing data … Continued

Greater Manchester is still at the foothills of its economic revival, and progress needs turbo-charging because on current trends it will take almost a century to reduce its productivity gap with London to a reasonable point, according to major new research published today (Tuesday). A Tale of Two Cities: Part 2, Greater Manchester – the … Continued

Britain’s ‘twin second cities’ can and must lie at the centre of national efforts to restart growth – but that means avoiding wishful thinking about the scale of change required, being distracted by Birmingham’s immediate financial struggles, or complacent in the face of Manchester’s nascent success, according to major new Resolution Foundation research published today … Continued

The biggest employment fall (down 207,000) outside of a recession on record offers the clearest sign yet that rising interest rates are cooling the labour market, but the recent pay spike will cause a headache for the Government by increasing the cost of the Triple Lock, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday). The latest labour … Continued

Typical working-age households are on track for a year of income stagnation in the run-up to the next election, and poorer families are set for further income falls, as tax rises, the end of cost-of-living payments and higher housing costs offset an improving economic outlook, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Wednesday). The … Continued

Major reforms are needed to tackle low standards, unsafe working conditions and minimal progression opportunities that affect too many of Britain’s 34 million workers – and the focus should be on innovative new sector-specific ‘Good Work Agreements’, according to major new Resolution Foundation research published today (Monday). Innovation Nation – the 41st report from The … Continued

The Ofgem energy price cap will fall to £1,923 from October for a typical household, but over one-in-three households across England – 7.2 million in total – will face higher bills this winter than last, highlighting the urgency of further government support for hard-pressed families, the Resolution Foundation said today (Friday). The Foundation notes that … Continued

Over one-in-three (35 per cent) English households – equivalent to 7.2 million households – will see higher energy bills this winter than they did last winter, including almost half (47 per cent) of those in the poorest tenth of households, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Thursday). Gotta get through this examines how … Continued

CPI inflation fell to 6.8 per cent in July – down from 7.9 per cent in June and 10.1 per cent in January – making it the sharpest six-month fall in inflation since September 1992. But UK inflation remains higher than elsewhere, and the Bank of England faces a tough task in taming it amid … Continued

Real wages in June were higher than a year ago for the first time in 18 months – ending yet another painful pay squeeze across Britain. However, with unemployment rising and vacancies falling, the Bank will hope that pay rises will also start to cool in the coming months, the Resolution Foundation said today. The … Continued

3.9 million working days have been lost to industrial action in the past year – more days than at any point since the 1980s – with many of the strikes fuelled by the fact that highly-unionised public sector workers have experienced average real terms pay falls of over 9 per cent since 2021, the Resolution … Continued

The UK economy grew slightly in Q2, exceeding expectations for flat growth. But the cost of living crisis period remains the weakest outside of a recession for 65 years, the Resolution Foundation said today (Friday) in response to the latest ONS GDP data. GDP increased by 0.2 per cent in Q2 2023, following a small … Continued

The Bank of England continued the largest cycle of rate rises in more than 30 years with an unprecedented fourteenth increase in a row, but the main news in today’s announcement was gloomy forecasts that point to a weaker GDP outlook and a sharp rise in unemployment as the price we all must pay for … Continued

Higher tax receipts, and lower borrowing by local authorities, mean that borrowing in June was lower than expected, but government net debt hitting 100 per cent of GDP first time since 1961 illustrates the tough economic inheritance for whoever wins the next General Election, the Resolution Foundation said today. Borrowing in June was £18.5 billion … Continued

The joint second largest fall in inflation since the start of the century in June – exceeding market expectations – will ease the pressure on further interest rate rises, and has ended the UK’s 18-month period of falling real wages, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). CPI inflation fell from 8.7 per cent in May … Continued

Rising interest rates have caused household wealth across Britain to fall by £2.1 trillion over the past year, but there are winners – concentrated among younger generations – as well as losers if higher rates are sustained, according to major new analysis published today (Monday). The report Peaked Interest? – part of a partnership with … Continued

The jobs market continued to return back to its pre-pandemic health, with men driving another recent rise in employment. But with private sector wage growth rising by 7.7 per cent it will take time pay growth to normalise, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday) in response to the latest ONS labour market statistics. The main … Continued

Stronger economic growth is fundamental to restarting rising living standards in the UK, but must be accompanied by reform to our economy and benefits system if the rewards are to be widely shared, according to new Resolution Foundation analysis published today (Tuesday). Sharing the benefits – the 40th report from The Economy 2030 Inquiry, funded … Continued

Britain needs to move away from its simplistic and pernicious cycle of promising tax cuts while delivering tax rises, and towards reforming and improving our tax system so that it supports, rather than hinders, economic growth, according to major new research published today (Wednesday). Tax planning – the 39th report of The Economy 2030 Inquiry, funded … Continued

Worrying inflation data will reinforce market expectations that the Bank will need to raise interest rates higher and for longer, which are driving the increase in mortgage rates, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). Inflation data in May was once again above market expectations. Headline CPI was 8.7 per cent, well above market expectations of … Continued

Signs that inflation is proving stickier than expected have raised market expectations for how high the Bank of England will raise interest rates, with total annual mortgage repayments now on course to rise by £15.8 billion by 2026, and by £2,900 for the average household re-mortgaging next year, according to new research published today (Saturday) … Continued

The UK’s initial post-Brexit trade plan must be replaced with a far more ambitious strategy to protect Britain’s vulnerable high-value manufacturing firms – reliant on being part of European supply chains – while pioneering a new approach to trade negotiations to capitalise on its strengths as a global services superpower, according to major new research … Continued

The strength of regular pay growth in recent months means that the UK’s 18-month real wage squeeze may well have ended, at least for now. But this welcome news for workers will concern the Bank of England who may want to raise interest rates higher and for longer in order to cool pay growth, the … Continued