Central government spending is already £11.5 billion above the OBR’s March forecast, six months into the fiscal year, highlighting the scale of the public finances challenge facing the Chancellor ahead of her first Budget next week, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday). The vast majority (£9.7 billion) of central government overspending in the current financial … Continued

Decarbonising Britain’s transport will be challenging as it accounts for over a third of all UK emissions. But doing so effectively could save households £22 billion (£650 per household on average, in current prices) in 2035, according to new analysis from the Resolution Foundation published today (Thursday). The report Getting the green light, funded by … Continued

CPI inflation fell to 1.7 per cent in September, down from 2.2 in August, and ahead of a likely jump in October. This otherwise welcome temporary dip is bad timing for millions of low-to-middle income families, as the lower September figure will be used to uprate working-age benefits next Spring, the Resolution Foundation said today … Continued

The continued softening of the jobs market – with quarter-on-quarter growth in payrolled employment falling for the first time since January 2021 – suggests that the UK’s brief era of healthy real terms pay growth could end soon, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday). While ongoing data quality issues mean little can be taken from … Continued

The Government’s new industrial strategy – which identifies eight priority sectors for the UK – has doubled down on leveraging Britain’s strengths as a services superpower, and offers a huge opportunity to boost growth in major cities, the Resolution Foundation said today (Monday) in response to the Industrial Strategy Green Paper. The Green Paper identifies … Continued

The Chancellor should use her first Budget to rewrite the existing debt rule to enable higher public investment and boost growth. But this won’t solve wider tax and spend challenges, with £20 billion of tax rises needed to ‘end austerity’, according to the Resolution Foundation’s pre-Budget report. The report notes that the upcoming Budget is … Continued

The package of measures included in the Employment Rights Bill should deliver a marked improvement in working conditions for millions of low earners across Britain, who are most likely to benefit from stronger protection from unfair dismissal, improved access to sick pay, and greater security in working hours. But the job is far from done, … Continued

The first decade of auto-enrolment has improved private pension coverage and boosted people’s pension pots. The Government should now make the next decade focus additionally on flexing pension savings – in order to address the different savings challenges that low, middle and higher earners face – according to major new research published today (Thursday) by … Continued

The new Government needs to be both pragmatic and strategic about where to pursue closer regulatory alignment with the EU, if it’s to make its reset of relations with the EU a growth-boosting one, according to new Resolution Foundation briefing published today (Wednesday). With the new Government pledging to reset its relationship with the EU, … Continued

7.7 million households in England are at risk of fuel stress this winter, including the majority of families with children. The Government will therefore need to do more to support vulnerable households who are no longer eligible for Winter Fuel Payments (WFP) and those who never have been, according to new research published by the … Continued

The new Growth and Skills Levy must end the cycle of policy failure in addressing Britain’s chronic skills shortages. But the Government must get its design and implementation right if it’s to boost the number of apprenticeships after years of decline, and ensure that Levy funds go to young people who need it most, according … Continued

Government plans to boost infrastructure and build more homes could feasibly get Britain halfway towards having the strongest economic growth in the G7. But it will need to deliver these contentious reforms on the ground, and put growth at the forefront of other policy decisions on trade, skills and labour market reform, if it’s to … Continued

A big week for the Bank of England is likely to result in nothing much changing – with CPI holding steady at 2.2 per cent, and interest rates likely to remain at 5 per cent, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). CPI inflation held steady in August, with the second-biggest monthly rise in airfares on … Continued

The Government’s welcome planning reforms could deliver a step change in housebuilding over the parliament. But it will need to bolster these reforms with direct investment if it is to meet its target of creating 1.5 million more homes over the parliament, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Thursday). The report Building Blocks … Continued

Pay growth is weakening as the labour market continues to cool. But falling inflation means that workers still received a welcome real-terms income boost this summer, while pensioners will get one next spring too, as today’s earnings data is set to drive a £460 a year increase in the full rate of the new State … Continued

Reforms to Inheritance Tax (IHT), Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and employer National Insurance (NI) could raise over £20 billion a year, and still pass a ’triple tax test’ of improving tax efficiency, ensuring that tax rises fall on those with the broadest shoulders and not break manifesto commitments, according to new Resolution Foundation research published … Continued

Low-paid workers are most likely to lose their jobs during downturns, be employed on a zero-hours contract and miss out on sick pay if they fall ill, so should gain most from the Government’s proposed shake-up of Britain’s workplaces. But the reforms will require careful implementation to ensure that they make a real difference to … Continued

Real median household incomes are projected to grow by a healthy 3 per cent this year. But on current economic forecasts and policy assumptions, this recovery is set to peter out, with incomes forecast to grow by just 2 per cent in total over the next five years, highlighting why the Government needs to beat … Continued

Higher-than-expected spending and somewhat weaker receipts have left government borrowing £4.7 billion higher than expected by the OBR, just four months into the 2024-25 financial year, underlining the difficult choices facing the Government at the Autumn Budget, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). The latest ONS data showed that borrowing was £3.1 billion in July … Continued

The number of children aged under 16 who have a disability has increased by almost half a million over the past decade, and disability is most prevalent among older children. But around one-in-four who claim disability benefits then stop as they approach adulthood, causing a major income shock at a critical stage of their lives, … Continued

The UK economy has continued to bounce back from last year’s recession in 2024 with the fastest growth of any G7 economy in the first six months of the year. But its record on GDP-per-capita, which matters more for living standards is far less impressive, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday) in response to the … Continued

The rise in CPI inflation last month was less than both the Bank of England and markets were expecting. Both are instead more likely to focus on the sharp fall in services inflation, which shows that domestic price pressures are easing, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). Headline CPI rose for the first time since … Continued

Real pay growth is slowing amid further signs that the labour market is cooling, while new Resolution Foundation analysis shows that while official data is under-estimating the UK’s real level of employment and blind-siding policy makers in the process, it said today (Tuesday). The latest ONS data shows that real average weekly earnings growth has … Continued

England now has 13 million more bedrooms than it did in the 1990s – with more than one-in-five homes now containing four or more bedrooms – but this has not been enough to bring down overcrowding according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Wednesday). The Foundation’s latest Housing Outlook examines how the number and … Continued

Progress has been made in narrowing some geographic economic gaps, but the same areas have tended to either lag behind or prosper that did so thirty years ago, and spatial disparities in child poverty have widened since 2014-15 – according to new Resolution Foundation analysis published today (Tuesday). The report, Uneven ground, uses a range … Continued