The long shadow

This briefing note examines how being in deep poverty in childhood – proxied by eligibility to free school meals at age 16 – continues to shape graduates’ earnings long after university. Using the Longitudinal Education Outcomes dataset to track the education and work pathways of 520,000 graduates in England born between 1986 and 1989, it shows that graduates who experienced deep poverty in childhood still face a significant earnings gap after a decade in work post graduation. 

This matters because higher education is a key route to upward mobility. Yet young people from poorer backgrounds are far less likely to attend university compared to their less disadvantaged peers, despite having the most to gain from doing so. But this briefing note shows that graduation alone does not level the playing field. Graduates who experienced deep poverty in childhood earn around 13 per cent less than their better-off peers a decade after graduation.  

By providing the most granular picture yet of the impact of childhood poverty on earnings later in life in the UK at a time when the Government is under pressure to reduce child poverty, this note is a stark reminder of the long-term costs of child poverty and the case to make it history.