Government should call time on the costly Triple Lock ratchet 10 June 2026 New Resolution analysis published today (Wednesday) shows why time should be called on the expensive and wasteful Triple Lock on the State Pension. The briefing shows that the Triple Lock has been: Far too expensive. The State Pension is already the single biggest driver of higher welfare spending in this Parliament (set to cost £13.8bn more by 2029-30 in real terms). Replacing the Triple Lock with a smooth earnings link from next year would save £650 million a year by the end of the Parliament, enough to double the funding of the Youth Guarantee to tackle Britain’s NEETs crisis. Failed to reduce poverty. Given its exorbitant cost, the Triple Lock has been remarkably ineffective at reducing poverty. In the 15 years running up to its introduction (1997-98 to 2011-12), pensioner poverty rates fell by 15.8 percentage points. In the 12 years following the introduction of the Triple Lock pensioner poverty has risen by 2.3 percentage points. Unhelpfully arbitrary. The OBR projects that State Pension spending will rise by £80 billion over the next 50 years. But the unpredictable ratchet effect of the Triple Lock means this figure could be £40bn higher or lower, depending on economic conditions, adding huge uncertainty to the public finances and retirement planning. The Foundation says that the New State Pension is now worth 30 per cent of full-time median earnings, just shy of the 31 per cent level recommended by the original Pensions Commission back in 2003. So, while there is a strong case for calling time on the Triple Lock now and replacing it with a smoothed earnings link, at the very least the current Pensions Commission should recommend a target State Pension level after which the Triple Lock is no longer needed. Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation, said: “The pensions Triple Lock is a terribly designed policy that has proven to be far more expensive than originally planned, far less effective at reducing poverty than many hoped, and risks causing further economic harm if it continues for much longer. “The most sensible way to keep the State Pension rising in line with the living standards of the rest of society is through a smoothed earnings link, rather than a random ratchet. Doing this next year would save £650 million a year by the end of the Parliament – enough to double the current support to help the one million young people not in employment, education or training back into work. “We cannot afford to keep this policy for another Parliament. The Government should call time on the Triple Lock as soon as possible, and put the savings from doing so to far better use.”
