Disability and ill-health set to push the number of young people who are NEET above one million for first time in over a decade

The number of young people aged 16-24 who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) has risen by 195,000 over the past two years to reach 940,000. The most common reason for being NEET is unemployment, but the largest increase in recent decades has been amongst those inactive due to disability and ill-health, according to the latest analysis from the Resolution Foundation, published today (Tuesday).

False starts – produced with the support of the Health Foundation – confirms trends present in the Labour Force Survey using administrative data, to show that the number of young people who are NEET is on track to hit one million for the first time since the aftermath of the financial crisis (when it peaked at 1.2 million in 2012).

The new analysis reveals that the demographic makeup of NEETs, and their reasons for being so, have noticeably shifted in recent years.

The biggest changes have occurred among young women. Back in 2005, half of all young women who were NEET were out of work due to family caring responsibilities. By 2025, this had fallen to just one-in-five NEET young women. This means that unemployment is now the biggest single reason for being NEET among both men (47 per cent) and women (32 per cent). As a result, young men are now marginally more likely to be NEET (13 per cent) than young women (12 per cent), having been less likely to be NEET back in 2005 (12 and 16 per cent respectively).

Increased incidences of disability and ill-health are the most prevalent reason for the growth in NEETs among both men and women. The proportion of NEET young people who are inactive due to sickness or disability has more than doubled since 2005, with over one-in-four NEETs today inactive for this reason (29 per cent for men and 26 per cent for women).

The report warns that young people who are NEET today are increasingly detached from the workplace. 60 per cent of NEETs today have never worked, up from 42 per cent in 2005.

The report also debunks some common perceptions about young people who are NEET.

First, the claim that all NEETs are on benefits is wide of the mark. In fact, nearly half (44 per cent) of all NEETs aged 16-24 do not engage with the benefit system at all.

Second, in contrast to the popular narrative that AI is depressing graduate labour market participation and driving up NEETs, it is in fact those with low qualifications that dominate the NEET population. Young people aged 22-24 whose highest qualification is at GCSE level or below are three-times more likely to be NEET than graduates (30 and 9 per cent respectively).

Third, this is not solely a young adult problem, with the 2013 increase in the participation age in education failing to reduce the number of 16-17 year old NEETs over the past decade.

The Foundation says that the rising number of NEETs is a major living standards worry, as being NEET at a young age increases an individual’s chance of being unemployed or low paid later in life.

The Foundation urges the Government to redouble efforts to reduce NEETs by creating a national ‘front door’ to help young people re-engage with education and training, broadening access to the Youth Guarantee to include 22-24 year olds, and increasing the quality and frequency of Work Capability Assessments for young people who are receiving health-related benefits.

With unemployment still the most common reason for young people being NEET, the Foundation warns that the Government should not pursue their stated ambition of abolishing the youth rates within the minimum wage. Any increases in the rates would need to be especially cautiously considered in the current economic environment to prevent young people from being priced out of entry into the labour market.

Louise Murphy, Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said:

“The number of young people who are neither earning nor learning has risen sharply in recent years and is now nearing one million.

“The biggest factor driving this increase is workless young people reporting a disability or ill-health. This has doubled over the past twenty years and now affects over one-in-four young people not in education, employment or training (NEET).

“The Government should redouble efforts to reduce the number of NEETs by making it easier for young people to return to education if they drop out, or to get their first experience of work. Otherwise, we a risk a cohort of young people slipping through the cracks into a lifetime of lower living standards.”

David Finch, Assistant Director in the Healthy Lives team at the Health Foundation, said:

“The consequences of the worsening health of our country’s young people are becoming crystal clear. Preventative action is urgently needed, otherwise there’s a risk that we set our young people onto a path of ill health through the rest of their lives. This would be a sad loss of potential for the individual and the economy.”

“The government must take a preventative approach that helps to keep young people in good health and in education and training, providing a pathway into employment.”