High housing costs and financial uncertainty are holding millennials back from having children

The latest twist in Britain’s declining birth rate has been the sharp rise in the number of non-graduate women in their mid-to-late-20s who do not yet have children, which has increased from a third (33 percent) in 2011 to over half (54 percent) by 2023, according to new Resolution Foundation analysis published today (Wednesday).

With the number of births in the UK having plummeted from 810,000 in 2012 to just 660,000 in 2024, Bye bye baby – part of the ESRC-funded Centre for Population Change Connecting Generations research programme – examines what lies behind this.

The report finds that being childless at 30 has become the new normal. The share of women in England and Wales who haven’t had a child by age 30 has surged from 48 per cent for those born in the late 1980s to 58 per cent for those born in the early 1990s. And while graduate women set this initial trend (and remain more likely to be childless at 30), those without degrees appear to be catching up.

There are many reasons why people postpone having children or do not have them at all – including a preference to remain child-free, not having found the right partner, or a decision to prioritise other life goals. But, crucially, the report finds that the gap between how many children women say they ideally want and the number of children they are having has grown; suggesting that other barriers are at play too.

Many millennials may consider an independent and stable home an important step towards starting a family. But this is increasingly out of reach.

The number of non-graduates in their mid-to-late twenties living with parents has almost doubled over the past 25 years, from 15 percent in the late 1990s to 26 percent in 2023-24. This often poses a significant barrier to starting a family. In fact, of the overall rise in the proportion of non-graduate women in their late 20s without a dependent child over the past decade, two-fifths is associated with the shift towards living with parents.

Young millennials that do leave the family home are far more likely to rent than own. The share of non-graduates renting privately has more than doubled (from 16 percent in 1998-99 to 33 percent in 2023-24), while the proportion who are homeowners has roughly halved (from 49 percent to 25 per cent). As renters spend a third of their net income on rent, on average, this leaves little left over to spend on the costs of having a child.

Wider economic barriers are also standing in the way of parenthood. Of the childless young people born in 1989-90 who were asked at age 32 why they weren’t currently trying for children, one-quarter of men (25 percent) and almost one-third of women (30 percent) cited financial reasons.

It is not yet clear if these recent trends will ultimately prove to be a delay or a decline. Women born in the 1960s and 1970s delayed childbirth but then caught up to their immediate predecessors. But the rise in childlessness seen since 2010 has been even more rapid than before, and the pushing of parenthood into even later stages of life narrows the potential window for having children.

And we don’t need to presume that this is a crisis to recognise that it is a trend that deserves attention, warns the author.

Few countries have been able to successfully reverse falling birth rates, so policy makers must carefully consider the consequences that these demographic shifts will bring. For example, addressing the unsustainability of the pensions triple lock will only become more acute in an increasingly ageing society. And schools are already experiencing the challenges of smaller birth cohorts, with funding largely driven by pupil numbers while many high costs – like building and maintenance – remain fixed.

Charlie McCurdy, Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said:

“The latest twist in the UK’s falling birth rate story is that non-graduate women in their mid-to-late 20s have seen a dramatic rise in the proportion who are childless.

“Deciding whether to have children is a deeply personal choice, but it’s clear that financial constraints are at play too. The sharp rise in young people living with parents or living in high-cost, low-stability, rented accommodation poses significant barriers to starting a family.

“Policy makers should look to address the financial barriers that are hindering young peoples’ ability to start a family – such as increasing housing affordability and opportunities to get on the housing ladder – to make parenthood more achievable for those who want it.’’