Earnings Outlook· Labour market· Pay The RF Earnings Outlook Q3 2015 15 December 2015 Laura Gardiner The publication last month of the most reliable and comprehensive source on earnings presented a more muted picture of the early stages of the pay recovery than the more timely monthly series had indicated. More encouraging was the information below the headlines, particularly the fact that the recovery was strongest among the lowest earners. In recent months average weekly earnings growth has started to tail off, and our near-term projection for the December labour market figures suggests real growth of 2.1-2.2%. That’s back to or below the pre-crisis trend, despite inflation remaining ultra-low. This window of opportunity from low inflation has remained open longer than expected, but will start to close in coming months. In this regular briefing we use 13 key indicators to take a more detailed look at underlying trends and prospects for the future.