Publications Understatement of the year Putting the 2026 Spring Forecast in context 4 March 2026 by Hannah Aldridge and Mike Brewer and Elliott Christensen and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Ruth Curtice and Julia Diniz and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Cillian Sheehan and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Jamie Titus-Glover and Lalitha Try The Spring Forecast was billed as a non‑event, but the underlying story is stark: weak growth, rising risks, and only a fleeting improvement in living standards. Our analysis shows why… Continue Reading
Events Taking the temperature Spring Forecast 2026 and the prospects for borrowing, growth and living standards Wednesday 4 March 2026 The Government came into office promising to tackle policy uncertainty by limiting major fiscal events to one a year. They failed to deliver this last year, but are determined to… Continue Reading
Publications Fiscal events and how to avoid them Spring Forecast 2026 preview 19 February 2026 by Elliott Christensen and Charlie McCurdy and James Smith In this slide pack we preview the upcoming Spring Forecast, assessing the economic and fiscal outlook based on news since the Autumn Budget. Continue Reading
Events Where is the UK economy heading? The outlook ahead of the Spring Forecast Thursday 19 February 2026 The Autumn Budget was barely three months ago, but the UK has experienced plenty of economic and political drama since then. In the short time between OBR forecasts, there have… Continue Reading
Comment Fiscal repair and cost-of-living relief: How Reeves fared on the Budget’s twin challenges 3 December 2025 by James Smith This article was originally published on LSE Inequalities. After months of speculation and expectations (mis)management, we at last know the contents of Rachel Reeves’ second Budget. The backdrop to this event… Continue Reading
Publications Stairway to headroom Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 27 November 2025 by Hannah Aldridge and Mike Brewer and Elliott Christensen and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Julia Diniz and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try The Chancellor’s second tax-rising budget arrived under dark clouds, but forecasts came in better than feared. But even though she was saved from the worst predictions of past weeks, the Chancellor still faced a tough task to clear three big hurdles – fixing the public finances, easing… Continue Reading
Events Second album syndrome? What Autumn Budget 2025 means for the public, financial markets and the cost of living Thursday 27 November 2025 The Chancellor has prepared the pitch for a tough second Budget, with tax rises expected as part of a fiscal strategy designed to reassure markets that the UK’s public finances… Continue Reading
Publications Black holes and consolidations Previewing the key decisions for Budget 2025 4 November 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Elliott Christensen and Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Jonathan Marshall and Louise Murphy and James Smith This make-or-break Budget is set to include significant spending cuts and tax rises spurred by a significant deterioration in the public finances. So, in this briefing note we discuss how… Continue Reading
