Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Economic growth Rewriting the rules Assessing Conservative and Labour’s new fiscal frameworks 7 November 2019 by Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Cara Pacitti and Jack Leslie Fiscal rules are technical frameworks only ever focused on by a tiny fraction of the population. But they are important for government’s running of our public finances, and for having a sense of where we are heading as a country. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Rounding up Putting the 2019 Spending Round into context 4 September 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Adam Corlett In his September 2019 Spending Round the Chancellor rightly declared he was “turning the page” on austerity and “writing a new chapter in our public services”. But he has also ripped up his own fiscal rulebook, almost certainly breaking the fiscal ‘mandate’ in the near-term and casting significant doubt over his ability to keep debt falling as a share of GDP over the coming years. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Breaking the rules Analysing the credibility of the Chancellor’s commitment to keep to his fiscal rules 31 August 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell The Chancellor is shortly to deliver the first spending round (SR) of the post-austerity era. Although he is only setting departmental budgets for 2020-21, this event will mark a turning point in our political and economic debates as it brings to an end almost 10 years of austerity. The politics of this SR are relatively … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Super, smashing, great: Spring Statement 2019 response 14 March 2019 This paper sets out RF’s overnight response to the 2019 Spring Statement, using HMT and OBR data and projections to consider what is going on in the public finances and what the outlook is for household living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Spring Forward or Fall Back? The questions facing the UK economy ahead of the Spring Statement 2019 4 March 2019 by Matthew Whittaker Our look ahead to the 2019 Spring Statement, focusing on what sort of public finance outlook the Chancellor might be handed and on what is happening in the economy more generally. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Welfare How to spend it: Autumn 2018 Budget response 30 October 2018 by Matthew Whittaker This paper sets out RF’s overnight response to the 2018 Autumn Budget, using HMT and OBR data and projections to consider what is going on in the public finances and what the outlook is for household living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Welfare Tunnel vision: Autumn Budget 2018 and ‘ending austerity’ 24 October 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Our look ahead to the 2018 Autumn Budget, focusing on what sort of public finance outlook the Chancellor might be handed and on what is happening in the economy more generally. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Sugar rush: Spring Statement response 14 March 2018 This paper sets out RF’s overnight response to the 2018 Spring Statement, using HMT and OBR data and projections to consider what is going on in the public finances and what the outlook is for household living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A man for all seasons? What the Chancellor can expect in the OBR’s Spring outlook 8 March 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Consumer borrowing has been surging over recent months, raising fears that we are storing up more debt-fuelled problems for tomorrow. This note digs into the numbers and focuses on who is taking out all the credit. We consider also how the profile of the UK’s household debt will stand up to increasing interest rates in the coming years. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Freshly Squeezed: Autumn Budget 2017 response 23 November 2017 This paper sets out RF’s overnight response to the 2017 Autumn Budget, using HMT and OBR data and projections to consider what is going on in the public finances and what the outlook is for household living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economy and public finances Revised Statement: productivity, prospects and priorities ahead of the Autumn Budget 13 November 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Our look ahead to the 2017 Autumn Budget, focusing on what sort of public finance outlook the Chancellor might be handed and on what is happening in the economy more generally. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Welfare· Intergenerational Centre A Budget for intergenerational fairness? 10 November 2017 by Laura Gardiner Here we focus on the levers that Chancellors most frequently turn to at Budget time – the taxation of income, and working-age benefits. We demonstrate the intergenerational parameters by which policies should be judged, by assessing the impact of policy options both across and within generations. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Are we nearly there yet? Spring Budget 2017 and the 15 year squeeze on family and public finances 9 March 2017 by Matthew Whittaker and Stephen Clarke and Adam Corlett and David Finch and Laura Gardiner and Kathleen Henehan and Daniel Tomlinson Resolution Foundation’s overnight briefing on the 2017 Spring Budget. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Economy drive: prospects and priorities ahead of the last Spring Budget 28 February 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Healthier-than-expected tax receipts, the absence of any immediate post-referendum slowdown in growth and measurement changes are set to lower borrowing forecasts at next week’s Budget by £29bn between 2015-16 and 2020-21. Such a revision would leave borrowing projections for the remainder of the Parliament below those expected at Autumn Statement 2016, but still well above … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Bending the rules: Autumn Statement response 24 November 2016 by Adam Corlett and David Finch and Laura Gardiner and Matthew Whittaker Our morning after briefing for Autumn Statement 2016. READ MORE
Living standards· Budgets & fiscal events· Incomes· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Welfare Under New Management: options for supporting ‘just managing’ families at the Autumn Statement 7 November 2016 by David Finch and Matthew Whittaker The new Prime Minister has been very clear in her determination to put the interests of ‘just managing’ families at the heart of her government, but she has inherited tax and benefit plans which are set to lower incomes for many in the group over the remainder of the parliament. With post-EU referendum revisions to projections for … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Tax Changing Tax: pressing reset on the UK’s tax policy 5 November 2016 by Matthew Whittaker In this note, we consider how the Chancellor might reset the UK’s tax policy in the Autumn Statement, with a particular focus on the personal allowance threshold and corporation tax. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Pressing the reset button: the public finance options facing the new Chancellor at the Autumn Statement 5 November 2016 by Matthew Whittaker In the run up to the Autumn Statement, the Chancellor has already indicated the need for a fiscal ‘reset’. While this has been over-interpreted as a hint of a radical shift in macro-economic policy, it simply represents recognition of the need to drop his predecessor’s fiscal pledges if he is to avoid making significant additional … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Budget 2016 response 17 March 2016 by Matthew Whittaker In this note, we consider seven of the day’s key takeaways from the Chancellor’s latest Budget. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax· Political parties and elections Time for revision: why the Chancellor needs to look again at his plans for tax cuts in the Budget 14 March 2016 by Stephen Clarke and David Finch and Matthew Whittaker This briefing note considers possible tax cuts that could feature in the Chancellor’s upcoming Budget, and looks at how these policy choices can be made in a way that better benefits lower earners. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances O, blessed revisions: fiscal windfall and what to do with it 26 November 2015 by Matthew Whittaker Resolution Foundation’s Autumn Statement analysis, including: Economic outlook Public finances outlook Taxes and benefits Public services The changing state READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Welfare A Budget for workers? The impact of the Summer Budget on work incentives in Universal Credit 16 July 2015 by David Finch The combination of increases in the minimum wage (via the introduction of a National Living Wage), cuts to income tax and sharp reductions in working-age welfare presented in the Summer Budget produces a complex mix of winners and losers. Those not currently in receipt of benefits and tax credits (or Universal Credit) are likely to … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Have we lost our bouncebackability? 21 March 2014 by Matthew Whittaker In the light of latest OBR forecasts and the 2014 Budget, this paper considers where anticipated growth can come from. In the absence of widely-shared wage growth, can the UK economy grow above trend without a surge in credit? Or, must we resign ourselves to a period of subdued recovery? READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Narrowed Horizons: The fiscal choices at Spending Review 2013 and beyond 20 June 2013 by Matthew Whittaker The government’s plans for deficit reduction have increasingly stark implications for public spending as their deadline draws nearer. While overall expenditure is set to remain relatively flat in 2015-16 (the period covered by the latest Spending Review) the pace of reduction in total government spending is due to increase significantly in the two subsequent years. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Resolution Foundation analysis of the 2013 Budget 8 April 2013 by Vidhya Alakeson and Alex Hurrell and Matthew Whittaker The Chancellor’s fourth Budget was a relatively quiet affair. While pre-announced changes mean that millions of households will face further reductions in benefit and tax credit receipts from April, the latest financial statement said nothing new about welfare cuts (though it confirmed that departmental spending is set to be tightened still further). READ MORE
