Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The Uncertainty Principle Previewing the decisions to be taken at the Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021 19 October 2021 by Jack Leslie and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson This report is our analysis of the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of the upcoming Autumn 2021 Budget – including what it will mean for the decisions the Chancellor will need to take at the Spending Review. The starting point for the Budget is that the economy is in a much stronger position than was … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Nationally Insured? New taxes and new spending to address key Department for Health and Social Care priorities 8 September 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Lindsay Judge and Krishan Shah and Daniel Tomlinson and Lalitha Try This note assesses the announcements made by the Government on the suspension of the Triple Lock, National Insurance rises, health and social care funding, and public spending totals for the rest of this Parliament made on 7 September 2021. READ MORE
Social care· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Universal Credit· Economy and public finances To govern is to choose The choices facing the Chancellor this autumn 6 September 2021 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Daniel Tomlinson The Chancellor has not had a quiet introduction to national policy making: overseeing 17 major fiscal announcements in as many months. This summer provided the first lull, driven by the success of vaccines and the understandable focus on Afghanistan. But the quiet phase is coming to an end. Alongside dealing with whatever new paths the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Spending fast, taxing slow Resolution Foundation analysis of Budget 2021 4 March 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Daniel Tomlinson This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the March 2021 Budget. The context for this Budget was an intensification of the Covid-19 pandemic, creating a need for further policy measures to support families and firms in the months before the completion of the vaccine rollout. In response, the Chancellor announced significant … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Here today, gone tomorrow Putting Spending Review 2020 into context 26 November 2020 by Torsten Bell and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the November 2020 Spending Review. The backdrop to that Review was the reality of an on-going health crisis and a huge hit to the economy which looks set to leave lasting damage to both household and public finances. In response, the Chancellor has ramped up coronavirus spending this … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Covid state Analysis of the economy and public finances ahead of the 2020 Spending Review 20 November 2020 by Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Daniel Tomlinson and James Smith The Chancellor is set to unveil his Spending Review against a radically changed economic and fiscal backdrop to the one he faced in March. Although unemployment is set to peak lower and later than had been expected back in the Summer, the long-term economic scarring from this crisis is set to be significant. The OBR’s … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Summer Economic Update July 2020 Resolution Foundation overnight analysis 9 July 2020 by Resolution Foundation Analysis This was not a Budget, but was still a big deal with £30bn of measures to support the economy. This is particularly significant when seen in combination with £160bn of pandemic-related support already announced, leaving borrowing this year on course to reach £350bn. Debt interest costs will continue to fall, although the crisis will leave … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending Spring Budget 2020 response 11 March 2020 by Resolution Foundation Analysis Britain’s new Chancellor gave the country a big Budget, combining a larger-than-expected response to coronavirus with a resetting of the Government and Conservative party’s approach to managing the public finances. A large appetite for increasing public spending has been combined with far less appetite to raise taxes. The result is a Conservative Chancellor now planning … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events A Budget action plan The economic response to the coronavirus 8 March 2020 by Tony Yates and Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner and Richard Hughes and James Smith Although secondary to addressing the health consequences, it is crucial that policy makers act swiftly to prevent the outbreak of coronavirus becoming an economic crisis, too. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Euston, we have a problem Is Britain ready for an infrastructure revolution? 4 March 2020 by Richard Hughes and Lindsay Judge and Cara Pacitti and Andrew Bailey The centrepiece of the new government’s first Budget is expected to be an ‘infrastructure revolution’ – spending at least an additional £100 billion over the next five years on public investment. This is significant because such spending has the potential to support economic growth, improve living standards and protect the environment. So this report considers … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The trillion-pound question Spring Budget 2020 and the tension between higher spending, low taxes and fiscal credibility 24 February 2020 by Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Daniel Tomlinson This report focuses on the big choice that the Chancellor will have to make this year, across two Budgets and the Spending Review, over the balance between day-to-day (current) spending, taxation and additional borrowing. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2020 20 February 2020 by James Smith and Jack Leslie This is the first of a new series of Macro Policy Outlooks (MPOs) from the Resolution Foundation’s Macroeconomic Policy Unit, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition we explore the outlook ahead of the Budget due on 11 March. The economy has slowed significantly in recent quarters, with 2019 the second-weakest post-war … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Economic growth Rewriting the rules Assessing Conservative and Labour’s new fiscal frameworks 7 November 2019 by Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Cara Pacitti and Jack Leslie Fiscal rules are technical frameworks only ever focused on by a tiny fraction of the population. But they are important for government’s running of our public finances, and for having a sense of where we are heading as a country. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Rounding up Putting the 2019 Spending Round into context 4 September 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Adam Corlett In his September 2019 Spending Round the Chancellor rightly declared he was “turning the page” on austerity and “writing a new chapter in our public services”. But he has also ripped up his own fiscal rulebook, almost certainly breaking the fiscal ‘mandate’ in the near-term and casting significant doubt over his ability to keep debt falling as a share of GDP over the coming years. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Breaking the rules Analysing the credibility of the Chancellor’s commitment to keep to his fiscal rules 31 August 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell The Chancellor is shortly to deliver the first spending round (SR) of the post-austerity era. Although he is only setting departmental budgets for 2020-21, this event will mark a turning point in our political and economic debates as it brings to an end almost 10 years of austerity. The politics of this SR are relatively … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Super, smashing, great: Spring Statement 2019 response 14 March 2019 This paper sets out RF’s overnight response to the 2019 Spring Statement, using HMT and OBR data and projections to consider what is going on in the public finances and what the outlook is for household living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Spring Forward or Fall Back? The questions facing the UK economy ahead of the Spring Statement 2019 4 March 2019 by Matthew Whittaker Our look ahead to the 2019 Spring Statement, focusing on what sort of public finance outlook the Chancellor might be handed and on what is happening in the economy more generally. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Welfare How to spend it: Autumn 2018 Budget response 30 October 2018 by Matthew Whittaker This paper sets out RF’s overnight response to the 2018 Autumn Budget, using HMT and OBR data and projections to consider what is going on in the public finances and what the outlook is for household living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Welfare Tunnel vision: Autumn Budget 2018 and ‘ending austerity’ 24 October 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Our look ahead to the 2018 Autumn Budget, focusing on what sort of public finance outlook the Chancellor might be handed and on what is happening in the economy more generally. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Sugar rush: Spring Statement response 14 March 2018 This paper sets out RF’s overnight response to the 2018 Spring Statement, using HMT and OBR data and projections to consider what is going on in the public finances and what the outlook is for household living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A man for all seasons? What the Chancellor can expect in the OBR’s Spring outlook 8 March 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Consumer borrowing has been surging over recent months, raising fears that we are storing up more debt-fuelled problems for tomorrow. This note digs into the numbers and focuses on who is taking out all the credit. We consider also how the profile of the UK’s household debt will stand up to increasing interest rates in the coming years. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Freshly Squeezed: Autumn Budget 2017 response 23 November 2017 This paper sets out RF’s overnight response to the 2017 Autumn Budget, using HMT and OBR data and projections to consider what is going on in the public finances and what the outlook is for household living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economy and public finances Revised Statement: productivity, prospects and priorities ahead of the Autumn Budget 13 November 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Our look ahead to the 2017 Autumn Budget, focusing on what sort of public finance outlook the Chancellor might be handed and on what is happening in the economy more generally. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Welfare· Intergenerational Centre A Budget for intergenerational fairness? 10 November 2017 by Laura Gardiner Here we focus on the levers that Chancellors most frequently turn to at Budget time – the taxation of income, and working-age benefits. We demonstrate the intergenerational parameters by which policies should be judged, by assessing the impact of policy options both across and within generations. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Are we nearly there yet? Spring Budget 2017 and the 15 year squeeze on family and public finances 9 March 2017 by Matthew Whittaker and Stephen Clarke and Adam Corlett and David Finch and Laura Gardiner and Kathleen Henehan and Daniel Tomlinson Resolution Foundation’s overnight briefing on the 2017 Spring Budget. READ MORE
