The UK economy made a stronger than expected start to 2025, with GDP growing by 0.7 per cent in Q1. But recent history, more recent data, and wider global uncertainty, all suggest that Britain’s growth rebound is unlikely to last, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday). GDP grew by 0.7 per cent in Q1 2025, … Continued

The Resolution Foundation’s employment rate estimate suggest that it has fallen by 1.3 per cent over the past 23 months, it said today (Tuesday) in response to the latest ONS labour market statistics. The number of payrolled jobs fell by 72,000 in the first three months of the year, while the flash estimate suggests a further 36,000 … Continued

The Bank of England’s take on the impact of President Trump’s first 100 days on the UK economy was low on growth and high on uncertainty, but its downbeat outlook came with some good news for families, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday). The big picture context to the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR) and decision to cut interest rates from 4.5 to 4.25 per … Continued

The Chancellor must balance new growth-boosting infrastructure projects with the need to rebuild Britain’s dilapidated hospitals and social housing when she sets out the details of a £100 billion plus boost to capital budgets at the Spending Review, according to new research published today (Tuesday). The report notes that as well as allocating funding for … Continued

The UK is one of very few countries that has a broad trade balance with the US on goods, which may help to shelter it from President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, while its growing trade in services shows where future growth may lie, the Resolution Foundation said today (Friday) in response to new ONS data on … Continued

Long-neglected rules governing capital means-testing in Universal Credit (UC) are undermining other Government policies aimed at encouraging lower-income households to accrue savings, according to new research from the Resolution Foundation published today (Thursday). The report Saving penalties – part of a partnership with abrdn Financial Fairness Trust – notes that the current capital thresholds, which … Continued

The UK borrowed £151.9 billion in the past financial year (2024-25) is significantly higher than the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast of £137.3 billion made last month – laying bare the Government’s fiscal challenge, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday) in response to the latest ONS data. Borrowing was 5.3 per cent of national income in 2024-25 the highest such borrowing figure since 2013-14 … Continued

CPI inflation dipped in March – falling by 0.2 percentage points to reach 2.6 per cent – but huge global forces will shape changes in the cost of living in the coming months, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). This drop is welcome, exceeding the expectations of both the market and the Bank of England … Continued

The latest figures on the UK labour market reveal that the employment rate is estimated to have been falling for the two years to March 2025, while pay packets are starting to flatline in real terms – in the last glimpse of the UK labour market before changes to the Minimum Wage and Employer National … Continued

The UK’s 6.8 million foreign-born workers are more likely to experience precarious work than British-born staff – with one-in-six working in some form of atypical employment – leaving them more vulnerable to exploitation than their British-born counterparts, according to new research published by the Resolution Foundation today (Monday). The analysis reveals that among foreign-born workers … Continued

Britain’s roll-out of heat pumps is miles off track, particularly in poorer neighbourhoods where they are less than half as likely to be installed as in richer places, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Thursday). The report, funded by the European Climate Foundation, notes that two thirds (64 per cent) of British homes … Continued

After a tough Budget and Spring Statement for low-to-middle income households, the Spending Review could brighten a bleak living standards outlook by prioritising spending on services they use the most, according to new research published today (Wednesday) by the Resolution Foundation. The research notes that public services are crucial for quality of life, providing ‘in-kind’ … Continued

Britain’s already dire productivity record has worsened in the 2020s, in sharp contrast to the US where it has accelerated since 2019. But while this exceptional US performance has been attributed to tech companies and shale gas, there are wider drivers of the UK-US productivity gap that Britain can learn from, according to new Resolution … Continued

As the new tax year begins in April, the outlook for living standards is historically bleak as British households face a triple-hit from higher taxes, utility bill increases, and benefits that aren’t keeping pace with the cost of living – leaving the typical working-age household £400 worse off this financial year, according to new analysis … Continued

The combination of rises in the National Living Wage (NLW) and employer National Insurance (NI) this week will massively increase the cost of employing low paid workers and should prompt a rethink in how the minimum wage is set in future, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Monday). Minimum wage, maximum pressure notes … Continued

The latest Households Below Average Income (HBAI) data for 2023-24 suggests that rates of relative child poverty, food insecurity and absolute poverty have all risen for the third year in a row – and puts further pressure on the Government to deliver an ambitious promised Child Poverty Strategy, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday). Almost … Continued

The combination of a weak economic outlook and benefit cuts that fall disproportionately on lower-income families means that living standards are on track to fall over the next five years for the poorest half of households by £500 on average, according to the Resolution Foundation’s overnight analysis of Spring Statement 2025. Key findings include: A … Continued

A deterioration in the outlook for the public finances meant that fresh fiscal consolidation was needed in the Chancellor’s Spring Statement to meet her fiscal rules. But with £4.8 billion of the savings coming from rushed welfare changes that will leave 3.2 million families £1,700 worse off on average, this unbalanced approach risks causing significant … Continued

The government borrowed £10.7 billion in February, significantly above the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast of £6.5 billion, highlighting the perilous state of the public finances confronting the Chancellor ahead of her Spring Statement, the Resolution Foundation said today (Friday). The latest ONS data shows that the UK’s weak economic performance is showing up in … Continued

The number of payrolled jobs has flatlined and average total weekly pay levels have fallen by 1 per cent in real terms since October, adding to a picture of wider economic stagnation ahead of the Chancellor’s Spring Statement and big policy changes coming into effect this April, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday). The latest … Continued

The Health and Disability Green Paper will boost Universal Credit (UC) support for up to four million families without any health conditions or disability by around £3 a week. But these tiny gains are overshadowed by reforms that risk causing major income losses for those who are too ill to work, or those who no … Continued

Higher interest rates, weaker growth and lower tax revenues mean that fresh fiscal tightening is likely to be needed on 26th March for the Chancellor to meet her fiscal rules. But with the jobs market already in recession territory, she must avoid hitting the living standards of lower income families in the process, the Resolution … Continued

The Government must focus on all three drivers of incapacity and disability benefit spending – entrances, entitlements and exits – if its reforms are to stem rising spending and boost living standards by getting more people back into work, according to new research published today (Thursday) by the Resolution Foundation. Ahead of the Government’s upcoming … Continued

Low-paid workers are the least likely to receive sick pay, most affected by a lack unfair dismissal protection, and are more than ten times as likely to be on a zero-hours contract than high earners – so are most likely to benefit from the new provisions laid out in the Government Employment Rights Reform Bill, … Continued

Around one-in-seven (2.7 million) employees across Britain experience erratic earnings – defined as having four or more months in a year where their earnings are at least 25 per cent above or below their average incomings – according to new analysis from the Resolution Foundation published today (Tuesday). The report Unstable Pay, produced with the … Continued