CPI inflation fell to 6.8 per cent in July – down from 7.9 per cent in June and 10.1 per cent in January – making it the sharpest six-month fall in inflation since September 1992. But UK inflation remains higher than elsewhere, and the Bank of England faces a tough task in taming it amid … Continued

Real wages in June were higher than a year ago for the first time in 18 months – ending yet another painful pay squeeze across Britain. However, with unemployment rising and vacancies falling, the Bank will hope that pay rises will also start to cool in the coming months, the Resolution Foundation said today. The … Continued

3.9 million working days have been lost to industrial action in the past year – more days than at any point since the 1980s – with many of the strikes fuelled by the fact that highly-unionised public sector workers have experienced average real terms pay falls of over 9 per cent since 2021, the Resolution … Continued

The UK economy grew slightly in Q2, exceeding expectations for flat growth. But the cost of living crisis period remains the weakest outside of a recession for 65 years, the Resolution Foundation said today (Friday) in response to the latest ONS GDP data. GDP increased by 0.2 per cent in Q2 2023, following a small … Continued

The Bank of England continued the largest cycle of rate rises in more than 30 years with an unprecedented fourteenth increase in a row, but the main news in today’s announcement was gloomy forecasts that point to a weaker GDP outlook and a sharp rise in unemployment as the price we all must pay for … Continued

Higher tax receipts, and lower borrowing by local authorities, mean that borrowing in June was lower than expected, but government net debt hitting 100 per cent of GDP first time since 1961 illustrates the tough economic inheritance for whoever wins the next General Election, the Resolution Foundation said today. Borrowing in June was £18.5 billion … Continued

The joint second largest fall in inflation since the start of the century in June – exceeding market expectations – will ease the pressure on further interest rate rises, and has ended the UK’s 18-month period of falling real wages, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). CPI inflation fell from 8.7 per cent in May … Continued

Rising interest rates have caused household wealth across Britain to fall by £2.1 trillion over the past year, but there are winners – concentrated among younger generations – as well as losers if higher rates are sustained, according to major new analysis published today (Monday). The report Peaked Interest? – part of a partnership with … Continued

The jobs market continued to return back to its pre-pandemic health, with men driving another recent rise in employment. But with private sector wage growth rising by 7.7 per cent it will take time pay growth to normalise, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday) in response to the latest ONS labour market statistics. The main … Continued

Stronger economic growth is fundamental to restarting rising living standards in the UK, but must be accompanied by reform to our economy and benefits system if the rewards are to be widely shared, according to new Resolution Foundation analysis published today (Tuesday). Sharing the benefits – the 40th report from The Economy 2030 Inquiry, funded … Continued

Britain needs to move away from its simplistic and pernicious cycle of promising tax cuts while delivering tax rises, and towards reforming and improving our tax system so that it supports, rather than hinders, economic growth, according to major new research published today (Wednesday). Tax planning – the 39th report of The Economy 2030 Inquiry, funded … Continued

Worrying inflation data will reinforce market expectations that the Bank will need to raise interest rates higher and for longer, which are driving the increase in mortgage rates, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). Inflation data in May was once again above market expectations. Headline CPI was 8.7 per cent, well above market expectations of … Continued

Signs that inflation is proving stickier than expected have raised market expectations for how high the Bank of England will raise interest rates, with total annual mortgage repayments now on course to rise by £15.8 billion by 2026, and by £2,900 for the average household re-mortgaging next year, according to new research published today (Saturday) … Continued

The UK’s initial post-Brexit trade plan must be replaced with a far more ambitious strategy to protect Britain’s vulnerable high-value manufacturing firms – reliant on being part of European supply chains – while pioneering a new approach to trade negotiations to capitalise on its strengths as a global services superpower, according to major new research … Continued

The strength of regular pay growth in recent months means that the UK’s 18-month real wage squeeze may well have ended, at least for now. But this welcome news for workers will concern the Bank of England who may want to raise interest rates higher and for longer in order to cool pay growth, the … Continued

Economic inactivity due to ill health among 18-24 year-olds has nearly doubled over the past decade, and is heavily concentrated among those struggling with education, with four-in-five young people who are too ill to work having only qualifications at GCSE-level or below, according to new research published today (Monday) by the Resolution Foundation. The Foundation’s … Continued

The UK must – and can – urgently reform its £32 billion of road taxes so that the welcome transition to Electric Vehicles (EVs) does not put pressure on the public finances and road congestion, according to new research published today (Thursday) by the Resolution Foundation. Where the rubber hits the road – the 36th … Continued

New ONS data published today (Thursday) showed that overall net migration hit a record high of 606,000 in 2022. But Resolution Foundation analysis of separate ONS data shows that the number of migrant workers rose by 170,000 over 2022 – up from lows immediately post-Brexit but significantly below the pre-Brexit average of 230,000. The latest … Continued

Ofgem’s announcement today that the energy price cap will fall to £2,074 on 1 July still leaves bills far higher than they were pre-crisis, but marks the welcome moment when falling wholesale gas prices start to benefit consumers, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday). The latest price cap is a decrease of over £1,000 since … Continued

CPI inflation fell back to its lowest level since March 2022, but rising core inflation will be disappointing for the Bank of England, while surging food prices will be very worrying for families, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday) in response to the latest ONS prices data. CPI inflation fell back to 8.7 per cent … Continued

Rising employment and falling economic inactivity drove a big expansion in the workforce in early 2023 – putting aside fears that it had been permanently shrunk by the pandemic. But more recent data showing falling vacancies and the first decline in payrolled employment in over two years, suggest that firms’ demand for more workers is … Continued

The Bank looks set to have almost finished the sharpest interest rate tightening cycle since the 1980s, but the switch from variable to longer fixed-rate mortgages has delayed the impact on households, with two-thirds of the eventual £12 billion increase in annual mortgage costs still to be passed on, according to new research published today … Continued

The Bank of England is approaching the end of the largest tightening cycle since Norman Lamont was hiking rates to keep Britain in the ERM, but it says further rate rises may be needed if high inflation is proves to be stickier than expected, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday) in response to the Bank’s … Continued

Different coping mechanisms are being used by different groups to get through the cost-of-living crisis, with middle-aged people running up debts, young people turning to friends and family, and poorer people resorting to more extreme measures like eating less and visiting food banks, according to new analysis published today (Thursday) by the Resolution Foundation. The … Continued

The UK borrowed £139.2 billion in the last financial year – £13.2 billion less than the latest OBR forecast – but the UK’s public sector net worth is also falling, and shows that the country is failing to invest in its future, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday) in response to the latest ONS public … Continued