Earnings Outlook· Labour market· Pay The Resolution Foundation Earnings Outlook Q3 2018 6 February 2019 Nye Cominetti Our earnings breakdown for Q3 2018 shows that the squeeze on real pay ended in 2018, but with real pay growth still low by historical standards. As usual, pay growth is higher for those changing jobs, with a ‘disloyalty bonus’ of 4 percentage points. Our analysis of pay pressures and slack shows that the labour market remains tight. Unemployment remains at a 40-year low, and underemployment is below pre-crisis levels. Job-to-job moves have been steadily increasing since the crisis, but fell slightly in the latest data. Our review of longer-term labour market health shows areas of concern. Productivity growth is very low, as is the level of workplace training (which could improve productivity). There is better news in labour force participation, which continues to rise.