Jobs· Earnings Outlook· Labour market· Pay The RF Earnings Outlook Q4 2015 18 April 2016 Laura Gardiner In terms of measured jobs market performance and the broader earnings picture, the key recent change has been a gloomier view on productivity, due both to poor Q4 outturns and in particular the downward forecast revisions at last month’s Budget. The productivity disappointment has been mirrored in more muted real average weekly earnings growth. The latest figure, 2.0%, is the product of stable (well-below-trend) nominal growth offset by inflation slowly rising from zero. Our near-term projection suggests growth tailing off further to below 1.9%, short of the pre-crisis trend of 2.2%. In this regular briefing we use 13 key indicators to take a more detailed look at underlying trends and prospects for the future.