Pay Why hasn’t 2014 been the year of the pay rise? 7 November 2014 by Gavin Kelly Next month we will be treated to the familiar spate of end of year reviews. Amid all that copy we can expect a regular theme to be that this was (another) year in which all the forecasts of a rise in earnings for workers were proved wrong. Inaccurate economic forecasts, especially when it comes to … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Political parties and elections What’s in store for the 2015 victor: winner’s curse or a steady recovery? 9 October 2014 by Gavin Kelly One of the laziest lines in politics is that there are good elections to lose: five years in opposition are rarely rewarding. But it’s certainly true that there are less attractive elections to win and for many 2015 falls into this category. As others have said: beware of the winner’s curse. This pessimism is increasingly … Continued READ MORE
Pay Where next for the minimum wage? 30 September 2014 by Gavin Kelly Today marks the first real terms rise in the minimum wage in six years. It speaks volumes about the convulsions in our labour market that something that was once taken completely for granted is now viewed as a significant and welcome departure. And the rise occurs at a time when there is something of a competitive … Continued READ MORE
Household debt· Macroeconomic policy Once interest rates start rising, how can indebted households be helped through the painful transition? 24 July 2014 by Gavin Kelly Whether it is this autumn, the New Year or shortly after next May’s election, everyone knows that interest rates are going to start rising sometime relatively soon. Yet despite the endless “guess the month” speculation about the precise timing of the first rise, little thought has actually been given to the bigger and longer-term question … Continued READ MORE
Labour market By omitting the earnings of one in seven workers from jobs data, our economic policymakers are operating in the dark 10 July 2014 by Gavin Kelly Whether you view the self-employed as the silent victims of our invidious jobs market or emblems of a new spirit of entrepreneurialism spreading through society, what is beyond doubt is that the ranks of those working for themselves are swelling by the day. The numbers have grown by a staggering 700,000 since the financial crisis. … Continued READ MORE
Pay· Economic growth Will the return of economic growth mean rising wages for workers? 19 June 2014 by Gavin Kelly How effective will advanced economies be at translating economic growth into higher wages for those in the low to middle part of the distribution and is this link weakening over time, reinforcing a ‘trickle-up’ tendency in mature economies? A great deal depends on these questions, yet they all too rarely are directly addressed. The answers … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Economic growth Rethinking post-crash social policy – IPPR’s Condition of Britain 19 June 2014 by Gavin Kelly Another day, another think-tank report. That, no doubt, is how it must feel to news desks, political hacks and listeners of the Today programme alike. Many of those reports disappear without a trace. But of those that leave a mark some succeed in making an argument that chimes with the times even if it’s not … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Seattle, Stuttgart, Switzerland – welcome to the new era of minimum wage radicalism 16 May 2014 by Gavin Kelly Lift your gaze from the humdrum debate on living standards in the UK and look overseas: something seems to be stirring on the politics of low pay. On Sunday, the Swiss vote on whether to introduce a wage floor of an almighty 22 francs (£14.90) per hour – by some way the highest in the … Continued READ MORE
Living standards What’s really been happening to living standards? 7 April 2014 by Gavin Kelly Despite the fact that it’s been centre-stage for a number of years, there is still a lot of confusion about the squeeze on household incomes: who has really been hit and by how much? Given that this will be a central political issue between now and the election it’s worth pausing over. Currently there are … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Pay set is to go up, or down, or stay the same – it all depends on how you measure it 3 April 2014 by Gavin Kelly and Matthew Whittaker We can expect to hear an awful lot about the closing gap between pay and inflation over the next few months as, inevitably and thankfully, on some measure we close in on a “cross-over point” where wages overtake price rises. But this poses the question: which measure of inflation and, indeed, which measure of pay? … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Will the welfare cap stand the test of time? 25 March 2014 by Gavin Kelly George Osborne’s welfare cap will be voted on tomorrow. It’s viewed by many as a moment of reckoning for Labour in which it will be caught in a deadly trap: support eye-wateringly tight and binding proposals that threaten the future of the welfare state or oppose them and stand exposed as the believers in big … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Why the Lib Dems’ £12,500 tax allowance promise is a smaller pledge than it sounds 11 March 2014 by Gavin Kelly Since the weekend, when the Lib Dem faithful gathered in York for their spring conference, quite a few column inches have been filled with frothy speculation about Nick Clegg’s likely longevity as Liberal Democrat leader. Nothing, however, has been written about the new twist he gave their proposed tax policy (Lib Dem blogger Mark Pack being the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market SeaTac: the small US town that sparked a new movement against low wages 23 February 2014 by Gavin Kelly Until the turn of the year, few Americans had much reason to have heard of SeaTac, a small community just outside Seattle. Those aware of the town’s existence knew it as a place that exists to serve the city’s bustling Seattle–Tacoma international airport. But SeaTac is now firmly on the map. Recent events there have … Continued READ MORE
Living standards It’s too early to be pessimistic about boosting living standards 11 February 2014 by Gavin Kelly Things are likely to stop getting worse sometime soon, progress will then be painfully slow, and it’s going to be an awful long time before they get back to where they were before the crash. That’s the gist of a major new report on living standards by the Resolution Foundation, which will show that typical household incomes … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The robots are coming. Will they bring wealth or a divided society? 6 January 2014 by Gavin Kelly Whether it’s our humdrum reliance on supermarket self-service tills, Siri on our iPhones, the emergence of the drone as a weapon of choice or the impending arrival of the driverless car, intelligent machines are woven into our lives as never before. It’s increasingly common, a cliche even, for us to read about the inexorable rise … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Stealth cuts to universal credit will hit the working poor 13 December 2013 by Gavin Kelly Few things in politics are certain, but certain policy announcements elicit a predictable media response. Tinker with the tax treatment of the elderly and prepare to be accused of imposing a “granny tax”. Or, more hopefully for the coalition, increase the generosity of the personal tax allowance and read about “tax cuts for low earners”. So here’s … Continued READ MORE
Housing A sixth of UK debt is held by those who have less than £200 a month left after essentials 3 December 2013 by Gavin Kelly Thursday’s Autumn Statement is likely to generate headlines about energy bills, improving public finances and the promise of a return to real wage growth in the new year. At least that is what George Osborne, the chancellor, will be hoping for. He should also prepare himself for another rash of stories about debt-soaked Britain. When people sift the detail, they … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The price we pay for poverty wages is too high 27 November 2013 by Gavin Kelly Low pay is not simply a rite of passage that young people go through, the odds of escaping are truly grim. Living on low pay in 2013 is a rough and all too common experience, but being stuck on poverty-pay for a decade or more is tougher still. Yet for all the talk in Westminster … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Whose recovery is this? And who will reap the benefits? 17 November 2013 by Gavin Kelly Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, gave his blessing to the recovery last week, proclaiming that it had “taken hold” in the wider economy. He didn’t, and couldn’t, take a similar stance on what’s likely to happen to the living standards of low- and middle-income Britain, where there are still few signs of an … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Another Tory-Lib Dem coalition in 2015? It’s no done deal 17 October 2013 by Gavin Kelly With £40bn of fiscal misery still to come, talk of another Tory-Lib Dem coalition predicated on possible tax cuts seems far-fetched The polls suggest the next election will be tight, so we can expect 18 months of speculation about the likelihood of a hung parliament and the coalition deals that might result. Expect every policy announcement … Continued READ MORE
Welfare It’s time to be honest about who gains from tax cuts 14 October 2013 by Gavin Kelly The news that George Osborne is likely to match the flagship Liberal Democrat commitment to raise the personal tax allowance to £12.5k in the next parliament is further proof of what became apparent during the conference season: the government’s economic message is jerking awkwardly between painting a bleak account of the years of austerity still to come and sunny … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Why living standards and public finances matter 30 September 2013 by Gavin Kelly The party that persuades voters it can deal with both issues will win the election. They are the towering issues of British politics that are not about to go away soon: the steep decline in living standards and the grim state of the public finances. Each compounds the other. Taken together they will dictate the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Planning for a pay rise – could ‘forward guidance’ work for Britain’s low paid workers? 12 September 2013 by Gavin Kelly The Low Pay Commission should consider setting out how the minimum wage would increase over time if the recovery is sustained How will the low paid fare should the economy move into a period of steady growth? This question is already creating interest across all three parties and looks set to become ever more central … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Despite further cuts in spending, tax rises look difficult to avoid 8 July 2013 by Gavin Kelly On Radio 4 Analysis Gavin Kelly discusses Resolution Foundation analysis on fiscal choices at the Spending Round 2013 Listen (3m 2s) READ MORE
Living standards ‘Households face £26bn of fiscal pain in 2016-18’ 26 June 2013 by Gavin Kelly If the current timetable for deficit reduction is maintained, households should brace themselves for roughly another £26bn of fiscal pain in the years between 2016 and 2018 – whether it comes in the form of extra cuts to public services, another big hit to welfare or new tax-rises. The much hyped “AME [Annually Managed Expenditure] … Continued READ MORE
