UpcomingTuesday 13 October 2026

Hitting the buffers

What could a weaker economic outlook mean for the Budget?

For all the new Prime Minister’s positive vibes, conflict in the Middle East has driven up inflation and prompted a retreat from sovereign debt in financial markets that has increased borrowing costs, blowing a hole in the buffers against the fiscal rules bequeathed to John Healey by Rachel Reeves. Healey faces a tough balancing act between funding those positive vibes, supporting families through another tough winter, while also reassuring the markets in his Budget.

With the energy price cap due to rise to around £2,000 this winter, how should the Government provide support for struggling families in the near term? What might a weaker economic outlook mean for the level of headroom against the Chancellor’s fiscal rules? What scale of repair job is needed? And how can the Chancellor achieve it without damaging tentative signs of UK economic resilience?

The Resolution Foundation is hosting an in-person and interactive webinar to debate and answer these questions. Following a presentation of the key highlights from its pre-Budget report, we will hear from leading experts on the economic outlook running into the Budget, and how the Chancellor can respond in a way that fits with the Government’s priorities.

The event will be open for people to physically attend, alongside being broadcast via YouTube and the Resolution Foundation website. Viewers will be able to submit questions to the panel before and during the event via Slido.