Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Spread thin Analysing the Autumn 2026 Budget 29 October 2026 Hannah Aldridge Mike Brewer Matthew Cavanagh Tom Clark Alex Clegg Nye Cominetti Ruth Curtice Julia Diniz Sophie Hale Victoria Haigney Stephen Hunsaker Lindsay Judge Zachary Leather Larissa Marioni Charlie McCurdy Louise Murphy Parth Pandya Simon Pittaway Cillian Sheehan Hannah Slaughter Imogen Stone Greg Thwaites This briefing note assesses the Autumn 2026 Budget, the first from the new Chancellor, delivered against a backdrop of war in the Middle East, a fresh energy price shock and a weaker fiscal outlook. It looks at the economic and fiscal forecasts, the Budget’s cost of living, tax and spending decisions, and what they mean for household incomes over the rest of this Parliament. Higher gilt yields have pushed the forecast debt interest bill up to £147 billion in 2029-30, £13 billion more than in March. The Budget leaves the Government with just £14.5 billion of headroom, about three-fifths of its March level. A £3.7 billion package of new household support takes the edge off this winter’s energy price rises, but cost of living support is thinly spread, with only just over half of measures announced by Burnham and Healey going to the poorer half of households. Decisions on departmental spending were largely deferred, and LHA was left frozen. Typical non-pensioner incomes are now set to fall by 3.0 per cent (£1,050) between 2026-27 and 2028-29, making the 2020s an almost completely lost decade for living standards. Better-targeted support for struggling families, and a more durable plan to rebuild the Government’s fiscal buffers, are needed.
