Jobs· Earnings Outlook· Labour market· Pay The RF Earnings Outlook Q3 2016 21 December 2016 Laura Gardiner Torsten Bell Two big 2016 events dominate our view of the labour market and likely developments in the coming years – the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) in April, and the result of the EU referendum in June. This final Earnings Outlook of the year – capturing data up to Q3 – provides an opportunity to take stock of these developments. In particular, we now have a full picture of how earnings were performing just after the NLW’s introduction, and new forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that provide a view on how the post-referendum economy might develop. The former confirms a positive picture, with fairly strong and very progressive earnings growth into the early part of 2016. However, the latter suggests this risks being as good as it gets: new analysis in our ‘Spotlight’ article points to an earnings growth freefall setting in from the very beginning of 2017. In terms of the period between these two phases – from around May to now – our measures add to the headlines on the flattening of employment growth, providing further evidence that the labour market has entered a ‘holding pattern’ in which not much at all has changed. In this briefing we use 13 indicators to take a more detailed look at underlying trends and future prospects. You can view the full interactive data here.