Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Understatement of the year Putting the 2026 Spring Forecast in context 4 March 2026 Hannah Aldridge Mike Brewer Elliott Christensen Tom Clark Alex Clegg Nye Cominetti Ruth Curtice Julia Diniz Sophie Hale Lindsay Judge Zachary Leather Jonathan Marshall Charlie McCurdy Louise Murphy Simon Pittaway Cillian Sheehan Hannah Slaughter James Smith Imogen Stone Jamie Titus-Glover Lalitha Try This briefing note sets out how a mix of benign fiscal developments and concerning economic trends leaves the Government on track to meet its fiscal rules following the 2026 Spring Forecast, but with little resilience to shocks. The OBR’s numbers combine weaker growth, higher unemployment and falling migration with a temporary boost from lower debt‑interest spending and unexpectedly strong tax receipts. But even as the OBR’s projections were being published, fast‑moving global events had already begun to make key assumptions out of date. Meanwhile, although lower‑income families are set to see an unusually strong boost to disposable incomes in 2026‑27 – driven by wage growth and the repeal of the two‑child limit – this respite is short‑lived. By the end of the Parliament, living standards are projected to stagnate or fall again, with child poverty edging back up.
