Key findings

  • Underpinned by an assessment that it must both deliver a surplus in order to reduce debt and do so via spending cuts, the government is set to reduce the size of the state towards historic lows
  • Subjective choices about the split between DEL and AME, consumption and investment and different services and groups fundamentally alter the shape of the state over time
  • In particular, the nature of the post-crisis consolidation – allied with demographic changes – is serving to increase the share of overall spending on older people and health while reducing the share going to working-age families and economic growth
  • This may or may not be the right balance to strike, but there is a danger that we fail to check in on these developments until after they occur – what do we want the state to do?

Further reading

Mission impossible?
Five things to look out for at next week’s pivotal Spending Review
·
Ruth Curtice, James Smith
Capital gains
Public investment priorities for the 2025 Spending Review
·
Zachary Leather, Felicia Odamtten, Cara Pacitti, James Smith
At your service?
Why the 2025 Spending Review must reckon with the distribution of public service use
·
Camron Aref-Adib, Emily Fry, Zachary Leather
Matthew Whittaker
Matthew Whittaker
Adam Corlett
Adam Corlett Principal Economist
David Finch
David Finch