Public finances· Trade Five charts that tell the story so far of the post-referendum economy 20 July 2016 by Matthew Whittaker and David Finch Perhaps the only certainty in relation to the UK at the moment is that things look very uncertain. Longer-term, much will depend on just what Brexit ends up meaning. Shorter-term, most economists expect some form of demand-led slowdown – with general business and consumer uncertainty pulling back on investment and spending and sharp falls in … Continued READ MORE
Work “Ordinary, working people” and the rise of self-employment 20 July 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson Theresa May undoubtedly has a lot to focus on, but she was clear last week that her government will be “completely, absolutely, unequivocally – at the service of ordinary, working people”. Which raises the question: who are these people? We had a helpful reminder from the ONS last week that a typical working person is … Continued READ MORE
Housing Could a Brexit-induced house price fall benefit those who are struggling with housing costs? 19 July 2016 by Lindsay Judge In a world full of gloomy post-referendum prognostics is there anything for low to middle income households to be cheerful about? In recent research we have shown that rising housing costs have dragged down living standards over the last two decades. Could a Brexit-induced drop in house prices be the silver lining for these hard-pressed … Continued READ MORE
Public finances· Macroeconomic policy Responsibility for avoiding a post-Brexit downturn rests as much with our politicians as our economists 18 July 2016 by Matthew Whittaker Despite boasting an impressive track record for inaction in recent years, the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to leave rates on hold last week still surprised many. Expectations had built following Mark Carney’s statement on 30 June that post-Brexit “deterioration” in the economic outlook meant that “some monetary policy easing [would] be required over the Summer”. … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Generations Renewing the intergenerational contract could be as important to future generations as a successful EU exit 18 July 2016 by David Willetts We have become very sensitive to inequities of class or race or gender. But we have been ignoring a growing new problem – unfairness between the generations. When I wrote The Pinch six years ago it was the first book looking at Britain from the point of view of the different generations. Since then it … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Trade Why did we vote to leave? What an analysis of place can tell us about Brexit 15 July 2016 by Stephen Clarke So much has happened since the UK voted to leave the EU that it is hard to believe that the result was announced just three weeks ago. Already the pop analysis of what influenced the referendum outcome is becoming received wisdom, with politicians and others competing to see who can best deal with the sources … Continued READ MORE
Work No jobs-killer as employers take a ‘suck it and see’ approach to the National Living Wage 11 July 2016 by Conor D’Arcy With all the economic and political tumult of the past couple of weeks, the launch of the National Living Wage (NLW) already feels a long time ago. But it’s only been three months since the government’s flagship labour market policy came into force. As with Brexit, we’ll need to wait before judging the full impact … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Generations· Political parties and elections Repairing the painful fractures between generations will be a crucial task for the new Prime Minister 3 July 2016 by David Willetts and Torsten Bell There’s a lot to do, and no-one around to do it. That’s the conclusion from Britain’s first week as a country on a course for Brexit. Most debate, and financial market turmoil, is focused on the huge task of redefining Britain’s role in the world. Whether we like it or not, and whether our leaders … Continued READ MORE
