Key findings

  • Underpinned by an assessment that it must both deliver a surplus in order to reduce debt and do so via spending cuts, the government is set to reduce the size of the state towards historic lows
  • Subjective choices about the split between DEL and AME, consumption and investment and different services and groups fundamentally alter the shape of the state over time
  • In particular, the nature of the post-crisis consolidation – allied with demographic changes – is serving to increase the share of overall spending on older people and health while reducing the share going to working-age families and economic growth
  • This may or may not be the right balance to strike, but there is a danger that we fail to check in on these developments until after they occur – what do we want the state to do?

Further reading

A healthy State?
Putting the 2025 Spending Review into context
·
Camron Aref-Adib, Mike Brewer, Tom Clark, Alex Clegg, Adam Corlett, Ruth Curtice, Emily Fry, Zachary Leather, Charlie McCurdy, Felicia Odamtten, Simon Pittaway, James Smith, Greg Thwaites
Mission impossible?
Five things to look out for at next week’s pivotal Spending Review
·
Ruth Curtice, James Smith
Capital gains
Public investment priorities for the 2025 Spending Review
·
Zachary Leather, Felicia Odamtten, Cara Pacitti, James Smith
Matthew Whittaker
Matthew Whittaker
Adam Corlett
Adam Corlett Principal Economist
David Finch
David Finch