Key findings

  • Underpinned by an assessment that it must both deliver a surplus in order to reduce debt and do so via spending cuts, the government is set to reduce the size of the state towards historic lows
  • Subjective choices about the split between DEL and AME, consumption and investment and different services and groups fundamentally alter the shape of the state over time
  • In particular, the nature of the post-crisis consolidation – allied with demographic changes – is serving to increase the share of overall spending on older people and health while reducing the share going to working-age families and economic growth
  • This may or may not be the right balance to strike, but there is a danger that we fail to check in on these developments until after they occur – what do we want the state to do?

Further reading

Back on target
Analysis of the Government’s additional cost of living support
·
Torsten Bell, Mike Brewer, Karl Handscomb, Jonathan Marshall, Lalitha Try
Cap off
Understanding the April 2022 inflation release
·
Jack Leslie
Crunch time
Bank of England raises rates again and signals cost of living crisis is set to deliver a £1,200 hit to incomes
·
Adam Corlett, Jonathan Marshall, James Smith
Matthew Whittaker
Matthew Whittaker
Adam Corlett
Adam Corlett Principal Economist
David Finch
David Finch