Welfare It’s crunch time for Universal Credit – and big changes are needed 7 July 2017 by David Finch Calls for an end to austerity have dominated the media in recent days with the focus largely on removing the public sector pay cap. But from a living standards perspective, ongoing ‘austerity’ via cuts in Universal Credit (UC) will make a much bigger difference to those families affected. The roll-out of UC, which is set … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Scotland A tale of two Scottish economies 5 July 2017 by Conor D’Arcy Imagine two economies. One has just announced strong economic growth, well ahead of the UK. Over time it’s become more productive relative to the UK and unemployment is as low as it’s been for decades. Then imagine another, in which GDP fell two quarters ago sparking fears of recession. In contrast to record employment across … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Labour market· Pay What does the minimum wage battle in Seattle mean for the National Living Wage at home? 30 June 2017 by Conor D’Arcy The old joke goes that if you laid all the economists in the world end to end, you still wouldn’t reach a conclusion. A little unfair maybe, but for those keeping track of the argument around two recent – and conflicting – papers on the move to a $15 minimum wage in Seattle, it probably … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards Incomes are falling, placing our economic growth on borrowed time 30 June 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Politics may be dominating the news agenda at the moment, but there’s a lot going on in the economy too. For those who care about living standards – and given the centrality of the issue to both the Brexit vote and the general election, that should include politicians – this week has been a … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills Apprenticeship participation reaches a record high – but wider adult education and training continues to decline 26 June 2017 by Kathleen Henehan Figures on apprenticeships and further education are unlikely to garner front-page headlines, particularly amidst the wider political turmoil and the commencement of Brexit negotiations. But the figures do matter. Skills and education can help to explain how we got here in the first place: lower levels of education, a sense of alienation and a feeling … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Britain’s labour market has passed peak insecurity 26 June 2017 by Torsten Bell Britain’s labour market is at a tipping point and about to enter a new phase, particularly as Brexit finally comes into view. Policymakers have consistently been behind the curve on these shifts. But if we can get to grips now with the changing world of work then we have a better chance of securing the full employment, … Continued READ MORE
Wealth & assets· Intergenerational Centre Britain has record levels of wealth – but how much wealthier are its citizens getting? 21 June 2017 by Conor D’Arcy Britain is very good at generating wealth. So much so that it’s now worth upwards of £11 trillion – or more than six times our national income. But we are awful at sharing it out: one in 10 adults own half the nation’s wealth. If not addressed, this could have disastrous consequences for the living … Continued READ MORE
Wealth & assets· Housing Five things you need to know about housing and wealth 21 June 2017 by Torsten Bell Visitors to the UK often complain that we talk about nothing but houses and house prices over dinner. They are wrong. The real problem, at least when it comes to public policy, is that we don’t talk nearly enough about housing and other forms of wealth. Our national debates tend to focus on the earnings, … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay The gloomy outlook for pay will put austerity under further pressure 15 June 2017 by Matthew Whittaker In the five decades leading up the financial crisis in 2008, growth in real weekly earnings turned negative in just 51 months. Yet new figures mark the 72nd month of negative growth in the nine years since, with more on the cards throughout 2017. Today’s figures leave average pay – in annualised terms – more … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances The end of austerity? 13 June 2017 by Torsten Bell Austerity is over, The Times tell us. Both the PM’s last chief of staff and her new one agree it’s gone too far. These are big shifts in language, on a subject that has dominated politics since 2010. But is austerity really over? And what are the crunch tests for deciding if the world … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade· Political parties and elections How important was Brexit in the so-called ‘Brexit election’? 10 June 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Anyone who channel-hopped their way through Thursday night’s election coverage will have noticed two things. First, pundits are very good at recycling and refining their reactions as they work their way around the various studios. And second, different channels established different, but seemingly equally plausible, narratives about just what on earth was happening. But one … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections The millennials and politics: are they getting into the swing of it? 9 June 2017 by Torsten Bell There’s a lot to take away from the most unexpected of election nights. Election campaigns and manifestos do matter after all. Conservative and Labour MPs are much better than pandas (at population growth in Scotland). Labour can win non-London seats south of the Watford gap. And voters don’t seem to appreciate leaders calling for yet … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Votey McVoteface: what’s driving the generational turnout gap, and why it matters 2 June 2017 by Laura Gardiner We are a couple of weeks away from a General Election. Candidates will be shaking hands with as many potential voters as they can, aiming to win their support. But most will prioritise the bingo halls over the student unions because, as is well known, older people are much more likely to make it to … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Can political parties capture the hearts and minds of young and old alike on polling day? 1 June 2017 by Laura Gardiner All elections have a theme. The last two were fought on living standards and the deficit. This one is about Brexit first and foremost. But there are other issues bubbling under the surface, with fairness between generations featuring prominently in both main parties’ approaches. Theresa May has identified ‘repairing the intergenerational contract that underpins society’ … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Political parties and elections There’s more on the table at this election than Brexit and security – it’s time we had a proper debate 28 May 2017 by Laura Gardiner This is clearly a very different sort of general election campaign. Conducted in advance of a Brexit process that will profoundly reshape Britain, the focus is on the nature of the deal and the leadership qualities of those vying to negotiate it. The tragic and horrific events in Manchester last week have understandably shifted the … Continued READ MORE
Demographics· Welfare· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections The welfare gap between young and old is set to widen, whoever wins the next election 26 May 2017 by David Finch We love a good welfare row in elections. Back in 2015, Labour was branded the ‘welfare party’ while the Conservatives were reluctant to divulge the details of the £12 billion cuts package they planned to announced shortly after the election. A cynic might wonder if they were planning to ditch that pledge in the … Continued READ MORE
Housing Looking for house and home 25 May 2017 by Lindsay Judge You can normally get a good feel for changing political priorities by tracking how often the parties refer to particular issues over time. Search for ‘house’ and ‘home’ in the manifestos of the two main parties and, as Figure 1 shows, in 2001 neither term got much of a look-in. Today, even when we strip … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Cities and regions When it comes to living standards, geography matters 24 May 2017 by Matthew Whittaker A slowdown in economic growth and the recent return of the pay squeeze has focused attention once again on the extent to which absolute living standard improvements have stalled across UK households since the financial crisis of 2008. But the distribution of gains and losses matters too – especially in the context of a vote … Continued READ MORE
Social care· Welfare· Political parties and elections The Prime Minister changes direction on social care. But will the cap fit? 24 May 2017 by Laura Gardiner Big election announcements on social care have a habit of coming back to bite you. As we pointed out in our reaction to the Conservative manifesto last week, proposals floated at the end of the last Labour government’s term for an estate tax were proclaimed a ‘death tax’ by the opposition. That tag has hamstrung … Continued READ MORE
Housing· Tax· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Death taxes, the Conservative manifesto, and the changing politics of intergenerational fairness 18 May 2017 by Torsten Bell Today we got sight of the Conservative Party’s Theresa May’s manifesto. Just two short years since the last Tory manifesto was presented to the British public, this 2017 offering is a very different beast. The personality shift is all too obvious as Mayism well and truly buries the Cameron/Osborne era of combining rhetorical focus on … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections Labour’s manifesto: let’s focus on the big choices not the small change 16 May 2017 by Torsten Bell Labour’s manifesto is a big deal, in the simple sense that it has a lot of stuff in it. Nationalising this, nationalising that. Scrapping tuition fees. Borrowing billions for investment. Higher taxes, from corporation tax to financial transactions and on those earning over £80,000. More spending on health, social care, schools, and childcare. Oh, and … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay· Political parties and elections A history lesson: from pay packets to election results 15 May 2017 by Torsten Bell This is a very odd election. Conservatives talking about building, rather than selling, council homes. Tony Blair and Jeremy Corbyn sharing a campaign slogan. Stepping back from the campaign itself, even the existence of the election is an odd bit of political economy for one big reason: a British Prime Minister has chosen to go … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Economic growth Whose recovery is this? 11 May 2017 by Stephen Clarke Much has been written about the success of the UK economy recently. Last year the country was (almost) the fastest growing economy in the G7 and confounded expectations that the vote to leave the European Union would cause an economic slowdown if not outright recession. And yet, in many parts of the country this tale … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The evidence is mounting that Zero Hours Contracts have reached their peak 11 May 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson What happens when unemployment is at a close to 40 year low, as it is in the UK today? Economic textbooks tells you that pay pressures mount. But that is not happening – instead a pay squeeze has returned in 2017. Instead, it looks as if more competition for jobs might just be pushing up … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market· Cities and regions We can work it out? The jobs challenge facing the Liverpool City Region’s mayor 20 April 2017 by Conor D’Arcy Although June’s election will dominate the headlines over the next month and a half, voters in some of England’s biggest cities will go to the polls in two weeks to elect Metro Mayors. Like all the city regions voting on a Mayor, the Liverpool City Region (LCR) – comprised of the local authorities of Halton, … Continued READ MORE
