Productivity & industrial strategy· Labour market· Pay Two and a half reasons to be cheerful about our strong and stable labour market 11 June 2019 by Nye Cominetti Today’s labour market statistics were, to use a technical term, boring. In a world of high political and economic drama, our labour market has served up headline measures of real pay growth and employment which basically haven’t changed for four months in a row. We shouldn’t bemoan unchanging numbers. Like air travel and digging tunnels, … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Tax· Political parties and elections Tax cuts for the rich is not the answer to the questions 21st century Britain is asking 10 June 2019 by Torsten Bell Politics is about answering the question the country is asking at that time, and in that place. Context matters. This fact seems to have escaped the notice of a number of candidates in the rather crowded field to be the next Conservative leader, judging by the single focus of many of their big ideas: massive … Continued READ MORE
No, you can’t always get what you want Top of the Charts 31 May 2019 Afternoon all, Donald Trump is coming. Obviously this isn’t about us getting what we want, but maybe it’s exactly what our divided country needs. For the same reason he’s such a deeply divisive figure in the US (due to the whole misogyny/stoking racial divides schtick) maybe he’ll provide us with some much-needed unity via an … Continued READ MORE
The Ides of May Top of the Charts 24 May 2019 Afternoon all, It’s all a bit last days of Caesar in Westminster – we’re definitely in the Ides of May. There was no going back once the PM crossed the Rubicon broke bread with Corbyn. Andrea Leadsom struck the first blow, and it finally ended today with the immortal words ‘et tu Brute Brady?’ The bad omen news for … Continued READ MORE
Respite From A Week Of Shocking Shocks Top of the Charts 17 May 2019 Afternoon all, It’s been a week of BIG shocks. Theresa’s off. Who knew. Boris is running. Gosh. Labour’s said it won’t do a deal on Brexit. Well knock me down with a WAB. We’re too unequal a country. Quelle surprise. And the climax to Game of Thrones involves a lot of people dying. Who saw that coming. Then again maybe … Continued READ MORE
Let’s Get Digging… Top of the Charts 10 May 2019 Afternoon all, I know it’s tough. Not only is a global trade war heating up, but it’s been pissing down all week. But it’s definitely time to perk up. We’re winning in Europe, football-wise at least. To an almost socially awkward degree. We’ve got a ROYAL baby of mixed race, and (apart from a few losers) we … Continued READ MORE
Cheaper cars, clothes, cabs and catheters Top of the Charts 3 May 2019 Afternoon all, Hope all your houses are enjoying their (electoral) plague today. It probably shouldn’t be much of a surprise. The public’s opinion of our politics is at its lowest ebb on record, while just this week one MP managed to get himself sacked for (allegedly) telling the truth when the rules are he shouldn’t … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Labour market· Productivity & industrial strategy The word on the high street 18 April 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson The way we shop in the UK has changed dramatically in just the space of a decade. In 2008 less than five per cent of retail spending was online, and that share has almost quadrupled in the years since. The latest statistics published just this morning show that in March this year almost a fifth … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Real wage growth has finally returned to pre-referendum levels 16 April 2019 by Charlie McCurdy Today’s labour market stats has bought good news in terms of both jobs and pay. Employment remains at a record high and unemployment at a 40 year low. But what really stands out in today’s figures is real wage growth. This has finally returned to pre-referendum levels providing a long awaited boost to real earnings … Continued READ MORE
Housing Social housing: time for change – and for long-term investment 12 April 2019 by Kate Henderson Guest post from Kate Henderson, Chief Executive of the National Housing Federation This week the Resolution Foundation is throwing a welcome spotlight on the future of housing for social rent, and I’m really pleased to be a part of this important conversation about how the nation provides affordable housing for people who need it most. … Continued READ MORE
Bridging Divides Top of the Charts 12 April 2019 Afternoon all, Nothing Lasts Forever these days. In the end the whale spits you out, or the Ecuadorians kick you out. That might be good news for Brexit-fatigued Brits. But then again Assange was stashed in the embassy for seven years, so maybe we’re not even half way there…. Because holidays are calling, and it’s important for art … Continued READ MORE
Housing To build, or not to build: that is the question 12 April 2019 by Stephen Clarke They say a week is a long time in politics (at the moment a day can feel like a long time). The same isn’t often true about economics. Arguably the most important forces in economics are long-running; demographics, big infrastructure projects, technological change. Things that don’t happen overnight. Therefore this blog – the latest in … Continued READ MORE
Housing Social renting: a working hypothesis 10 April 2019 by Lindsay Judge Social housing has many virtues: it provides families with a secure home at a reasonable rent, and the state with a smaller benefit bill and an asset to leverage. So what’s not to like? Other than the upfront cost, perhaps the most enduring objection we hear to the tenure is that it may have a … Continued READ MORE
Deadlines, downward mobility and debt Top of the Charts 5 April 2019 Afternoon all, The world revolves around deadlines. Some are moveable. Like Brexit. Others aren’t. Like the tax year. On the latter at least, the end really is nigh (today to be exact). And that means a fresh set of tax and benefit changes to contend with come this weekend. As part of our commitment to … Continued READ MORE
Tax New year, new era: tax and spend in 21st Century Britain 3 April 2019 by Torsten Bell and Resolution Foundation Analysis Eras of Britain’s political economy come and go. They ebb and flow, driven by political and economic cycles. Sometimes shifts are hard to see at the time, particularly when they are obscured by the political fog of war. Or Brexit, as it’s currently known. But noticed or not, the financial year starting this Saturday will mark the … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Childcare· Welfare CB40: Happy 40th birthday to child benefit! But will it last another twenty? 2 April 2019 by Adam Corlett Yesterday, the minimum wage celebrated its 20th birthday. Today, child benefit is having a 40th birthday bash. But, as this analysis shows, it’s become a somewhat modest affair, with (record) low generosity, fewer people invited than in earlier years, and particularly complicated arrangements. So today is a good time to step back and take stock … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills Apprenticeships system favours those who already hold skills 1 April 2019 by Kathleen Henehan This morning the Department for Education (DfE) published figures outlining the number and type of apprenticeships that were started during the first month of 2019. January isn’t a big month for apprenticeship starts. However, it does mark the completion of the first half of the academic year and, as such, is a good time to … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Low pay· Pay The minimum wage: now the only question is ‘how high?’ 30 March 2019 by Nye Cominetti This Monday, the 1st April, 2 million people working minimum-wage jobs will start the week with a pay rise. The National Living Wage (NLW), the rate that applies to 25+ year olds, will rise by 38p, from £7.83 to £8.21. We project that this will increase the number of people paid at the wage floor … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Labour market· Pay Minimum Wage 20th anniversary special Top of the Charts 29 March 2019 by Torsten Bell and Charlie McCurdy Afternoon all, It’s an historic day today. Lots of people were planning a party/wake. Big ones. But things have got derailed. No-one can agree on what to celebrate/mourn – or even when to celebrate/mourn it. There’s a serious danger no-one gets a party at all tonight. But don’t worry – TOTC is here to turn … Continued READ MORE
Demographics· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections My Generation, Baby: The Politics of Age in Brexit Britain 29 March 2019 by Laura Gardiner and Torsten Bell Generational politics is nothing new, but the extent of the profound generational cleavage that has emerged in British electoral politics is novel. The Brexit vote and the 2017 general election put generational politics centre‐stage, eclipsing in some ways the traditionally dominant role of class. Our two main parties now rely on age‐based coalitions of support—on … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Inequality & poverty Last year saw living standards stagnate and poverty rise 28 March 2019 by Adam Corlett It may go unnoticed amid the current political turmoil, but today we learnt a lot about the recent state of Britain via the publication of official statistics on incomes, poverty and inequality. We already know how the economy and labour market have performed over recent years, but today’s stats give us much more information about … Continued READ MORE
Green space envy, getting women on board(s) and a tribute to a Rockstar economist Top of the Charts 22 March 2019 Afternoon all, It’s alright – the military are getting involved. That’ll sort it out. Yes there’s political paralysis, but we’re talking boots on the ground people. I could not feel more reassured. Neither government or opposition has a proper Brexit plan, but Gavin Williamson has got a bunker and he’s damn well going to use it. To hold … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Cities and regions (Almost) every part of the country is celebrating Britain’s latest jobs surge 19 March 2019 by Charlie McCurdy We’re now a decade on from the Great Recession where the UK’s labour market took a turn for the worse. Back in 2009, we were panicking that unemployment could hit over three million. Today, we’re celebrating the highest employment rate – at 76.1 per cent – since World War II, while unemployment is also at … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills Taking stock of skills and education in Brexit Britain 19 March 2019 by Kathleen Henehan The skills and qualifications held by the British workforce have come under increased scrutiny lately, tied as they are to the Brexit-related migration debate. Some have argued that ‘turning off the tap’ of migrant labour will cause immediate, and substantial, recruitment difficulties for firms. Others maintain that reduced levels of migration could compel educators and … Continued READ MORE
The Meaningful Read I, II, III, IV and V Top of the Charts 15 March 2019 Afternoon all, TOTCs is a safe space this week, a haven of tranquillity. You cannot vote on TOTC (meaningfully or otherwise). It cannot be amended or extended. It makes no claims to represent or to betray the unique will of the people. The only similarity it has to Theresa May is that, bad as the … Continued READ MORE
