Public finances The economic fallout from war in the Middle East Part II The outlook for the economy and public finances Wednesday 22 April 2026 This second event will focus on the wider outlook for the economic and public finances. How much might the war reduce the UK’s growth prospects? What fresh policy support might be needed in the face of a potentially acute and prolonged price shock? How will this affect interest rates and mortgages? READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Taking the temperature Spring Forecast 2026 and the prospects for borrowing, growth and living standards Wednesday 4 March 2026 The Government came into office promising to tackle policy uncertainty by limiting major fiscal events to one a year. They failed to deliver this last year, but are determined to deliver a ‘policy free’ Spring Forecast next week. Have they achieved this? Or have they been scuppered again by the cost of policy U-turns, public service pressures or major changes in the UK economic – and political – outlook? READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Where is the UK economy heading? The outlook ahead of the Spring Forecast Thursday 19 February 2026 The Autumn Budget was barely three months ago, but the UK has experienced plenty of economic and political drama since then. In the short time between OBR forecasts, there have been encouraging signs on the public finances and the outlook for inflation. But growth remains sluggish and uncertainty elevated amid rising geopolitical tensions. There are some signs of productivity ‘green shoots’, but the risk is they are indicative of higher unemployment. READ MORE
Incomes· Public finances Growing pains? What’s in store for UK politics, economics and living standards in 2026 Thursday 8 January 2026 2025 was a bumper year for growth – in political and economic upheaval rather than GDP. Local elections accelerated Britain’s move from a two to five party system, while economists were treated to three major fiscal events and a full year of speculation surrounding them. The Government will hope the upheaval is dialled down in 2026, while its opponents will aim for the opposite. And what Britain really needs is a return to stronger economic growth to deliver rising living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Second album syndrome? What Autumn Budget 2025 means for the public, financial markets and the cost of living Thursday 27 November 2025 The Chancellor has prepared the pitch for a tough second Budget, with tax rises expected as part of a fiscal strategy designed to reassure markets that the UK’s public finances are firmly under control. But the Chancellor has also promised to protect the NHS, boost growth and support families with the cost of living. Acting decisively on all of these priorities would be no mean feat as part of a Budget that takes more than it gives. So what is Autumn Budget 2025 really about? READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Back for more? The Chancellor’s tax and spend options in her upcoming Budget Tuesday 4 November 2025 After delivering her first Budget last autumn, which included the biggest tax rises in decades to fund a major boost to public services, Rachel Reeves said that she would not be coming back with more tax increases. Fast forward 12 months and she’s about to do just that given a deteriorating outlook for the public finances risk the fiscal rules being broken. So the task for the Chancellor at this Budget is to show that she is serious about meeting her rules, boosting growth, and relieving cost of living pressures. Delivering all three in one Budget is an unenviable task. READ MORE
Public finances Third time lucky Has the Spending review delivered for middle Britain? Thursday 12 June 2025 The Government’s fiscal events have had a shaky start so far. The Autumn Budget unveiled £41 billion of tax rises by 2029-30, while the Spring Statement was dominated by controversial welfare reform that will hit poorer families the hardest. The upcoming Spending Review provides a fresh opportunity to focus on growth and living standards, as it sets out the details of over £40 billion additional annual day-to-day public service spending, and over £100 billion worth of infrastructure funding. But with Britain facing the strong headwinds of global economic turbulence and strained public services, will it be third time lucky for the Chancellor? READ MORE
Public finances How to spend £100 billion wisely Which areas of public investment should be prioritised at the Spending Review? Tuesday 29 April 2025 The UK’s record on public investment is poor by international standards – spending less than the OECD average for much of the past two decades. To her credit, the Chancellor has boosted capital spending plans by over £100 billion over this Parliament and put in place fiscal rules that reduce the likelihood of cutting investment when fiscal belt-tightening is needed. But that £100 billion won’t go as far as some might think, with much absorbed by reversing cuts planned by the previous Government. And with Britain’s social, economic and defence infrastructure all under strain, tough choices await on 11 June. READ MORE
Public finances Making public services better for low-to-middle income families Wednesday 9 April 2025 Despite the cuts announced in the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, spending on public services is set to be on average £43 billion higher over the years of the upcoming Spending Review, compared with what was set out by the previous Government at the 2024 Spring Budget. But with much of this extra spending front-loaded to this year and next, questions remain about funding pressures in the years after that. These services are vital for families – providing ‘in kind’ benefits which provide a huge boost to the living standards of lower-income households. So future provision will make a difference to the outlook for living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Spring cleaning the public finances Assessing the Chancellor’s Spring Statement and the UK economic outlook Thursday 27 March 2025 The Chancellor set out her first ever Budget less than five months ago, but the UK’s economic outlook has changed considerably since then. Bad news on growth, inflation and borrowing point to a deterioration in the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast, leaving the chances of Rachel Reeves meeting her own ‘non-negotiable’ fiscal rules on a knife edge. The Spring Statement is starting to feel a lot like a Spring Budget… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances The headroom bind What does the Chancellor need to do to hit her fiscal rules? Monday 17 March 2025 In her Budget last Autumn, the Chancellor announced the biggest tax rises on record to boost public spending and investment by over £300 billion across the Parliament. She also announced new, binding fiscal rules and left herself £10 billion of headroom against meeting them. But the UK economy – and the world – has changed in the past five months… READ MORE
Public finances The jitters-bug How worrying data and market unrest could affect Britain’s economic outlook Thursday 30 January 2025 Government debt markets across the world are having a jittery start to 2025, and the UK is one of the most affected economies with gilt yields volatile amid concerns about stagflation, though they have started to fall back in recent weeks. While these movements pass most people by, they can have a material impact on their living standards. For policy makers, a deteriorating economic outlook may need to be confronted too – either through a changed path for interest rates, or tough choices on tax and spend. READ MORE
Public finances A squeezed middle of the decade? The political economy outlook for 2025 Tuesday 7 January 2025 2025 is shaping up to be a big year in UK politics, as the Government’s ambitions set out across various White Papers start to be turned into deliverable action on the ground. The Spending Review could also set the tone for the rest of the Parliament, as the Chancellor sets out how to invest £100 billion wisely, and Ministers show how they intend to improve public services in the face of severe financial constraints. The living standards outlook is no less challenging. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Tough medicine Assessing the Chancellor’s options in her first Budget Monday 14 October 2024 What tax and spend decisions might the Chancellor consider in order to put the public finances on a more even keel, and what might this mean for family finances? Can the tough medicine in the Budget be squared with the need to kickstart growth? How might the new Government navigate the politics of a post-election Budget? And what could this mean for the rest of the Parliament? READ MORE
General Election 2024· Public finances State crafting Changes and challenges for managing the public finances Wednesday 5 June 2024 Tax and spend are at the heart of every general election – understandably as they represent the most significant choices made by most governments. The size and shape of the state has changed substantially since 2010. Despite spending cuts and tax rises, public debt levels are up. Whoever wins the next election will have to … Continued READ MORE
Wales· Scotland· Public finances· Growth· Cities and regions Policy making beyond Westminster Economic lessons from 25 years of national devolution Monday 29 April 2024 1999 saw the Scottish Parliament, the Northern Ireland Assembly and the Senedd all meet in their full form for the first time. This marked the most significant act of devolution of the 20th Century, and it has changed the United Kingdom significantly over the past quarter of a century. The process of devolution has continued … Continued READ MORE
Prices & consumption· Incomes· Public finances· Growth· Net zero Powering Britain Can we decarbonise electricity without disadvantaging poorer families? Monday 22 April 2024 The UK’s transition towards a net zero economy requires a complete overhaul of our power sector. We don’t just need electricity generation that has been decarbonised, but a huge amount more of it as we switch away from heating our homes with gas and powering our cars with petrol. This will require a huge step … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Game changer? Assessing the Budget’s economic, and electoral, impact Thursday 7 March 2024 The upcoming Spring Budget may be the last big fiscal event before the General Election, one of few chances for the government to set the terms of the economic debate. And with the government trailing heavily in the polls, and the economy entering a mild recession at the end of last year, the pressure is … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances· Political parties and elections Tax cuts today, spending cuts tomorrow? How the Budget might shape the General Election and beyond Wednesday 21 February 2024 An election is coming, and therefore so are tax cuts in the Budget on 6th March. But the size of those tax cuts are dependent on the amount of fiscal room for manoeuvre the Chancellor has. And their shape will reflect where his political and economic priorities lie. Plus tax cuts come in a context … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Public finances· Political parties and elections Turning a corner? The political and economic outlook for a critical election year Monday 8 January 2024 The worst of the cost of living crisis appears to be behind us, with inflation more than halving since its peak. But 2024 may not be plain sailing economically, and it certainly won’t be politically with an election in store. While wages are at last growing faster than prices, economic growth has flatlined while taxes, … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Autumn (Statement) Watch Thursday 23 November 2023 The economy is set to be a defining feature of the run in to next General Election. Inflation is falling, but so too is consumer confidence. Tax revenues are going up, but NHS waiting lists aren’t coming down. In the Autumn Statement the Chancellor will be navigating these short-term challenges, but also addressing longer-term questions … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Preparing the pitch What to expect in the upcoming Autumn Statement Monday 6 November 2023 The Chancellor has two just two more fiscal events in which to prepare the economic pitch for the upcoming General Election. The backdrop is a challenging and uncertain economic environment, alongside huge pressure on both public services and finances. With the Prime Minister making a virtue of the need to take tough decisions, the Chancellor … Continued READ MORE
Public finances· Growth· Economy 2030 Creaking at the seams Can we bring Britain’s trains, drains and mains into the 21st Century? Wednesday 1 November 2023 Britain faces a simply huge infrastructure challenge. As well as decarbonising our homes, we need to modernise our water, energy and transport networks, replacing basic infrastructure that often dates back to the Victorian era. Achieving this is likely to require major investment, regulatory reform and new institutions to drive forward change, as well as a … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Public finances· Macroeconomic policy· Economy 2030 Riding the economic rollercoaster Is Britain’s macroeconomic policy framework fit for purpose? Thursday 19 October 2023 Britain’s macroeconomic policy that the Treasury and Bank of England have got used to is crisis management – from a financial crash to a global pandemic and a huge inflation spike. Both have adopted new approaches to supporting the economy, going far beyond textbook cuts to interest rates. Today the legacy is higher levels of … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Public finances Enlightened economics Lessons from Adam Smith on the economic challenges facing modern Britain Wednesday 13 September 2023 Adam Smith was a leading political economy thinker of the Scottish enlightenment in the mid-late 18th century. But as the “Father of Capitalism” his pioneering work on free market economics has influenced politicians, philosophers and economists throughout the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries too. But modern Britain – as well as other advanced economies – … Continued READ MORE
