Crunching the numbers on today’s rate rise

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Public Finances and the Economy

Interest rates are up. It may be a very modest increase but, for any number of reasons, the news is big. Ten years on from the last rise, today’s 0.25 percentage point increase in the Bank’s base rate (taking it back to the 0.5 per cent it sat at between March 2009 and August 2016) … Continued

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The living standards cost of the OBR’s newfound productivity pessimism

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Public Finances and the Economy

Rumours of attempts within the Cabinet to remove Philip Hammond may or may not be wide of the mark. But given the recent steady flow of disappointing economic data, the Chancellor could be forgiven for wanting to walk before he’s pushed. Last week’s PMI data and today’s short-term indicators from the ONS both suggested that … Continued

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We’re getting poorer, but it’s not (just) Brexit

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Incomes and Inequality

Amid a busy week in politics, the publication this week of new data showing that average household income per person has fallen in each of the last four quarters has passed somewhat unremarked upon. As the chart below shows, annualised income fell by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of this year relative to … Continued

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