Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Tax All gain, no pain? – the Chancellor’s cunning tax plan 16 November 2017 by Torsten Bell British politics is odd these days. But even by current standards something very unusual looks set to happen in next week’s Budget. A basic rule of British politics is that tax rises tend to happen soon after a general election, with the Chancellor betting that we’ll all have forgotten about them when the next election … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Housing Strictly Come Building: How housing can make a star turn in the upcoming Budget 9 November 2017 by Torsten Bell Lowering expectations ahead of a Budget always helps a Chancellor. And when it comes to expectations of Cabinet members, Boris Johnson and Priti Patel have definitely been in the lowering business. But others have made the Chancellor’s task harder rather than easier. Robert Chote, the chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility, is set to … Continued READ MORE
Household debt The Bank has increased borrowing costs, but is personal debt bubbling over? 5 November 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Following a period of double digit growth in consumer credit over the last year or so, there have been some concerns about the reappearance of a debt bubble in the UK economy. In truth though, household borrowing currently resembles less of a bubble and more of two day-old helium balloon: partially deflated and looking worse … Continued READ MORE
Pay It’s all about the wages, stupid 4 November 2017 by Torsten Bell Yesterday’s good news: the reason the Bank of England increased interest rates is because it thinks the growth in your pay packet is about to start picking up. The bad news: it doesn’t think they’re going to pick up very far because we’re just not very good as a country at improving how we produce … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Macroeconomic policy The rate rise debate should prompt wider questions about the living standards impact of monetary policy 1 November 2017 by Torsten Bell Tomorrow the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade, kicking off the first tightening cycle for monetary policy in 14 years. Whether or not the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee behaves as markets anticipate, the expectation has triggered two big questions. First there is the macro question … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Time to make Universal Credit fit for purpose in 21st century Britain 31 October 2017 by David Finch The pace of the roll-out of Universal Credit (UC) has quickened in recent months – and so too have the complaints and reputational hit that the reform is taking. Much of the focus has been on the six week wait before new claimants moving out of work receive their first payment, which is the result … Continued READ MORE
Labour market We need to address Britain’s Jekyll and Hyde labour market 19 October 2017 by Conor D’Arcy The latest chapter in the British labour market’s Jekyll and Hyde story was published this week. New data on jobs, pay and inflation continued the plot of recent months: an impressively high employment rate twinned with woeful wage growth that’s unable to keep up with prices. But for one group at least, recent developments have … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade· Economy and public finances There’s much uncertainty about a ‘No Deal’ Brexit, but what we do know would be bad for living standards 17 October 2017 by Torsten Bell Big change, means big uncertainty. Especially when that big change is being brought to the complex beast that is a major developed country in the 21st Century. To complicate the task further, in the case of Brexit Britain while we know big change is coming, we don’t know what form that big change will actually … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Welfare Let it go Chancellor. Why Philip Hammond should revisit the benefit freeze in next month’s Budget 15 October 2017 by David Finch The weather might be un-seasonally warm just now, but millions of household budgets are in the grip of a four-year freeze that’s about to get colder still. For decades, the government’s default position has been to uprate the value of working-age benefits each April in line with the rate of inflation prevailing in the previous … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes Did raising tuition fees flatter measurements of young people’s incomes? 13 October 2017 by Adam Corlett The government has announced that the maximum annual tuition fee will be frozen at £9,250; and that the earnings threshold for repayment will jump from £21,000 to £25,000. What’s more, there will be a wide review of student finances to “look again” at this turbulent political issue. While they’re doing that, government statisticians should look … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills Is the big fall in Apprenticeship starts a blip, or a sign of things to come? 12 October 2017 by Kathleen Henehan Since the implementation of the apprenticeship levy in May of this year, many have wondered how a shift in funding – with large employers in England being required to put 0.5% of their wage bill into an apprenticeship account – would affect the number and type of apprenticeships on offer. Today, we have first sight … Continued READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Economy and public finances· Economic growth The living standards cost of the OBR’s newfound productivity pessimism 10 October 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Rumours of attempts within the Cabinet to remove Philip Hammond may or may not be wide of the mark. But given the recent steady flow of disappointing economic data, the Chancellor could be forgiven for wanting to walk before he’s pushed. Last week’s PMI data and today’s short-term indicators from the ONS both suggested that … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Brexit & trade We’re getting poorer, but it’s not (just) Brexit 6 October 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Amid a busy week in politics, the publication this week of new data showing that average household income per person has fallen in each of the last four quarters has passed somewhat unremarked upon. As the chart below shows, annualised income fell by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of this year relative to … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre Why intergenerational fairness is rising up the agenda, in 10 charts 30 September 2017 by Laura Gardiner The prospects of today’s younger generation is a topic that graces newspaper headlines and politician’s speeches with increasing regularity. In the middle of party conference season, here’s a 10-chart guide to where the concern is coming from and what those seeking to address the challenge should be focusing on. Jobs and pay Young people were … Continued READ MORE
Childcare· Welfare A hat-trick of childcare policies are being rolled out this Autumn. But is the current approach an expensive own goal? 28 September 2017 by David Finch Childcare support is all the rage. As well as being the focus of one of the key policy announcements at Labour Conference this week, the government is rolling out not one but three new policies this Autumn. Even in these austere times, the government is spending £2bn on the introduction of Tax Free Childcare and … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Political parties and elections For Labour, it’s all about what you say 23 September 2017 by Torsten Bell Labour members heading to Brighton this weekend will be a historical anomaly. Because they will be perky. That isn’t the word you’d normally associate with Labour party members on the eve of party conference for the last decade. Depressed, occasionally. Determined, often. But perky? No. And fair enough. Just 15 weeks ago they learnt that … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay The cap no longer fits – but has the squeeze been eased? 12 September 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson One of the main talking points as people digested the shock election result in June was whether years of pay restraint had finally taken its toll on public sector workers, who were making their feelings known at the ballot box. The fate of the pay cap was sealed a few hours after the polling stations … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption· Inequality & poverty· Welfare The living standards issue that’s bigger than Brexit for lower income households 9 September 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Love it or loathe it, the long shadow of Brexit is set to dominate our political weather for some considerable time to come. With good reason of course. The long-term impact remains uncertain, but we can be sure it will be significant. And in the near-term, there’s no denying that the referendum result is at … Continued READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Labour market· Low pay Morrisons matters: we need an industrial strategy for pay packets 25 July 2017 by Torsten Bell Like excessively floral play suits, industrial strategy has made a comeback from that strange land we call the 1970s. It’s all the rage. The government has named a department after it. Jeremy Corbyn is so keen to set that strategy free of European rules and regulations, he wants to leave the single market over it. … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Low pay· Pay The gender pay gap at the top of the BBC is making headlines, but what about pay at the bottom? 24 July 2017 by Kathleen Henehan Last week’s row over pay at the BBC has rumbled on through the weekend, and put the gender pay gap back at the top of the news agenda. With the gender pay gap still over 10 per cent, and unlikely to end any time soon given current trends, it’s good that this topic is leading … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Far from full employment 21 July 2017 by Stephen Clarke The recently released Taylor review was widely covered as an attempt to get to grips with the gig economy amid the growing sense that too much work in the UK was not ‘fair and decent’. The review comes on the back of five years of robust employment growth but stagnant wages and the proliferation of … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills Five tests on which to judge the success of apprenticeships 19 July 2017 by Kathleen Henehan A few weeks ago, we wrote about the importance of paying attention to apprenticeship figures. And now we’ve had two days of debate and disagreement around apprenticeship figures, in particular how much they’re paid. So what’s been happening of late? In short, apprenticeship participation is up, and at higher levels of study. But we’re concerned … Continued READ MORE
Prices & consumption· Economy and public finances Inflation afflictions 18 July 2017 by Stephen Clarke The story of the last 12 months is that inflation has risen rapidly and eroded people’s living standards. From 0.8 per cent in June 2016 inflation is now 2.6 per cent. Despite the small welcome fall last month current projections suggest it will remain around this level for the rest of the year. The rise … Continued READ MORE
Household debt Time to put away the credit card 13 July 2017 by Toby Phillips The squeeze is on. National accounts data last month confirmed that household incomes have been falling for the last three quarters. Yesterday’s labour market statistics showed that wages continue to lose ground to inflation. And today new survey data from the Bank the England shows that credit availability is tightening. Today’s survey is the latest … Continued READ MORE
Labour market It’s good to focus on overtime, not just Uber 11 July 2017 by Torsten Bell When a government publishes a Big Review – and at 115 pages the Taylor Review certainly fits that bill – the temptation is to rush into the weeds of its very many recommendations. But before we do that it’s worth stepping back and considering how remarkable it is that we’re even here in the first … Continued READ MORE
