Living standards· Inequality & poverty Uneven reports on inequality 15 April 2017 by Torsten Bell Jeremy says it is racing away. Theresa says it is falling. They can’t both be right, and in fact they’re both wrong. But that doesn’t mean we don’t have an inequality problem British inequality is like bad music: It’s all about the 1980s The gap between the rich and poor hasn’t moved that much in the … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Social mobility· Welfare A wider range of subjects? 13 April 2017 by David Finch Today Justine Greening is giving a speech about education and specifically the attainment of children from low and middle income families. The reaction to the speech will focus on the rights (not many) and wrongs (many) of grammar schools, but that should not wholly drown out some very welcome data work released by the Department … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Tax· Welfare The government’s £1bn tax and benefit giveaway will leave poorer households worse off 2 April 2017 by David Finch The arrival of April heralds a new financial year, but one that doesn’t bring with it the usual inflation-linked increases in tax thresholds and benefit rates. The former are set to rise faster than inflation – providing a tax cut for those earning more than £11,100 – while the latter continue to be frozen in … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty Is the Prime Minister right to say that inequality has gone down? 16 March 2017 by Adam Corlett In the brave new world of ‘alternative facts’, it’s natural to take politicians’ claims with more than the usual dose of salt. That’s particularly true when rivals appear to take very different positions on verifiable points of fact. With the Prime Minister claiming yesterday that “inequality has gone down under this government” and Jeremy Corbyn … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Tax U-turn if you don’t want to 15 March 2017 by Torsten Bell U-turns are a staple of politics, in all but the most honeymoon phases of governments. But the Chancellor’s U-turn on his Budget plan to raise National Insurance for the self-employed is a very unusual one, combining as it does a very firm defence of the need for the policy with the decision to scrap it. … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Cities and regions The North-South divide in the UK’s jobs market 15 March 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson With the divisions between different parts of the UK dominating the news agenda this week, now is as good a time as any to take a deeper look at the extent to which regional divisions also exist in our jobs market. Today we learned that the UK employment rate is at a record high (again). … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Tax A small and sensible National Insurance rise for the self-employed is not the real strivers tax 10 March 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson Here’s proof that a small and sensible National Insurance rise for the self-employed is not the real strivers tax in three charts. Conservative backbenchers and some newspapers are outraged by the Chancellor’s announcement this week that self-employed National Insurance contributions (NICs) are going up. Broken manifesto pledges and headlines about men in white vans adds … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Labour market· Tax Is the Chancellor about to start closing the self-employment tax gap? 7 March 2017 by Torsten Bell The Treasury is worried the self-employed aren’t paying enough tax. Conservative backbenchers are worried the Chancellor might do something about it. But what are the facts lying behind this pre-Budget anxiety outbreak? First things first, the Treasury is right to think there’s a fairly simple issue with the self-employed and tax – they pay a … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances This Budget will be a walk in the park for the Chancellor, but there are still mountains to climb 6 March 2017 by Torsten Bell Budgets are generally a stressful time for Chancellors. Explaining whatever news the economic forecasts throw up, selling your big policy shifts and avoiding the opposition unravelling the Budget small print is normally enough to raise the blood pressure of those in Number 11. But this week is likely to feel like a walk in the … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings· Wealth & assets Automatic success for the people? 3 March 2017 by David Finch Political commentators love a good high-profile policy disaster. Think NHS IT systems or the poll tax. But successes happen too. Usually they’re small scale, making incremental improvements, often for specific parts of the population. But just sometimes they’re a really big deal – fundamentally changing outcomes for millions of people. When such victories come along, … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Is self-employment Taylor-made for people with disabilities? 22 February 2017 by Conor D’Arcy Whatever your job, it’s been hard to escape self-employment lately. Whether it’s plumbers, couriers or drivers, the pros and cons of working for yourself have rarely been far from the headlines. The Taylor Review of modern employment practices has kept the flame burning, with its recommendations likely to have consequences for all sorts of workers … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption 2016 was a good year for living standards – but families didn’t splash out 16 February 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Today’s annual Family Spending release contains the usual wealth of useful information on household spending patterns. It shows that overall spending was largely unchanged in 2015-16 (at £529 a week) relative to the previous year, once inflation is accounted for. Indeed, having fallen slightly from 2006 and then increased gently after 2012, average household spending is little … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Economic growth 2016 was a quiet year for the British economy – but was it the calm before the storm? 15 February 2017 by Stephen Clarke In politics 2016 was a busy year. The vote to leave the European Union; a new Prime Minister; the unexpected election of Donald Trump and Matteo Renzi’s failed constitutional referendum in Italy. However, it was a relatively quiet year for the British economy. ONS statistics released today paint a picture of a labour market calmly … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The gig economy is a modern twist on an age old world of work dilemma 13 February 2017 by Torsten Bell A visit to the impressive remains of Housesteads Roman Fort on Hadrian’s Wall is always a good idea, not just for the views but also for some incredibly well preserved latrines. On display are stone bases above a trench, on which would have sat wooden boards for soldiers to perch on. As well as offering … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Intergenerational Centre No country for young men? 9 February 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson In decades gone by paid work was a thing that men did. Families, the world of work and the welfare state were structured to make this the norm. But this mid-20th century certainty is no more. Women in the UK are participating in the labour market in ever greater numbers with the gender employment gap … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Enough of the pessimism about the rise of the robots 3 February 2017 by Adam Corlett Will all our jobs soon be replaced by robots? Recent headlines suggest so. But historical experience casts doubt on such sensationalism. Indeed there are reasons for us to encourage more automation, rather than worry about the harm it will do. It is common now to hear theories about how new technologies are leading us towards … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty Back to the ‘80s: Projections for living standards and inequality in the UK 1 February 2017 by Adam Corlett and Stephen Clarke The UK economy has, in many respects, performed well recently. Last week it was revealed that GDP grew by 2 per cent in 2016, above the OECD average, and higher than forecasters expected when the country voted to leave the European Union. Employment is at a record high and average wages, although still 4 per … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Inequality & poverty Let’s avoid a poor rerun of the 1980s 1 February 2017 by Torsten Bell The 1980s deserve a bad reputation. Sweatbands, leg warmers, and diverse crimes against hair –think perms and mullets, feathered or otherwise. Then we start on the self-indulgence of the music and the fact that Rick Astley was allowed an entire career. Yes we had the Smiths but even Bob Dylan had a bad decade. On … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade Britain has enjoyed a mini living standards boom – so why did we vote for change? 29 January 2017 by Torsten Bell The living standards story of last year was record employment, a higher minimum wage and the strongest income growth for a decade. Britain’s never had it so moderately okay. What’s more inequality was either flat or falling – poorer households did better than most. But the democracy story was a Brexit vote for big change … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market Jobs, the rise of Trump and the dangers of fatalism 23 January 2017 by Torsten Bell Even for those not based in the US, it’s been hard to avoid a long weekend of an inauguration, marches, facts and alternative facts. But today Donald Trump settles into “his first business day” (for those counting there’s at least a little over 1,000 of those to come), and jobs are top of his agenda. … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Productivity & industrial strategy· Inequality & poverty· Skills· Cities and regions Can a new generation of political leaders tackle Britain’s regional inequalities? 20 January 2017 by Stephen Clarke 2017 will see the UK begin its departure from the European Union. However, as the UK seeks to shed some politicians in Brussels, we will be getting some new ones at home. Greater Manchester, Liverpool, Tees, West Midlands, Bristol and Bath, and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough will all go to the polls to elect mayors and … Continued READ MORE
Household debt· Prices & consumption Consumer borrowing is up. But will it last, and should we be concerned? 12 January 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Consumer borrowing is increasing at its fastest rate in 11 years. As the chart below shows, outstanding debts (excluding mortgages and student loans) rose by 10.8 per cent in November 2016 – faster than any time since October 2005. This surge has inevitably prompted concerns that the UK is heading back down the path of … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Inequality & poverty Inequality has reached a 30-year low. So should we still care? 10 January 2017 by Matthew Whittaker The joke goes that in the pub quizzes of the future, the answer to every question that starts “in what year…” will be 2016. But it’s likely that few will correctly identify that 2016 was also the year in which household income inequality fell to its lowest post-Thatcher level. Yet, thanks to a combination of … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay· Intergenerational Centre Is the gender pay gap on the brink of closure for young women today? 4 January 2017 by Laura Gardiner A common challenge to those – like us – who spend time voicing our concerns about the lot of today’s younger generation is a simple question: would you rather be born in 1960 or 1990? The argument runs that even millennials on modest incomes have smartphones that a boomer could only have dreamed of at … Continued READ MORE
Labour market A-typical year? 30 December 2016 by Laura Gardiner Atypical is an apt word for describing 2016. From the celebrity death rate to decisions at the ballot box in the UK and America that are fundamentally reshaping politics, there’s a definite sense of disruption. And so it was in the labour market. Granted, 2016 wasn’t the year when atypical working patterns broke into the … Continued READ MORE
