Fiscal policy· Public spending They’ve only just begun… Government fires the starting gun on a Spending Review that must plot a path to prosperity 10 December 2024 by James Smith and Tom Clark Rachel Reeves certainly isn’t the first Chancellor to turn to financiers for line-by-line scrutiny of public expenditure, as she is reported to be doing, as she fires the starting gun on next Spring’s Spending Review. Back in 1931, Philip Snowden turned to Sir George May – a retired “man from the Pru” – to identify … Continued READ MORE
The Government doubles down on the UK’s superpower in services 14 October 2024 by Greg Thwaites The Government has provided the outlines of its new industrial strategy in a Green Paper released today. The strategy largely doubles down on the UK’s established role as a global services leader. This is welcome, and not just because I counted eleven references to RF work and our Economy 2030 Inquiry, although that was nice. … Continued READ MORE
What official new income statistics can tell us about living standards in 2021 and beyond 24 March 2023 by Adam Corlett The financial year from April 2021 to March 2022 feels a long time ago. The furlough scheme and £20 a week benefit boost were in place for the first half of that year, Rishi Sunak was Chancellor, inflation averaged a ‘mere’ 4 per cent, and, even after some notable increases, the typical annualised energy bill … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Britain’s pay squeeze continues as sickness shrinks the workforce 13 September 2022 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data show both the supply of and demand for labour falling. On demand, vacancies continued to fall from recent peaks, while the employment rate ticked down. Don’t be fooled by the fall in the unemployment rate, even to a record low. This is because the fall in unemployed was driven by fewer … Continued READ MORE
Straight talking on tax cuts 14 July 2022 by Torsten Bell The Conservative Party got rid of Boris Johnson because once too often he just wasn’t straight with them or the public. But the danger now is that the leadership election that is meant to help the Party and country move on fails the very same straight-talking test, given the sheer scale of tax cut promises … Continued READ MORE
Migration If fewer workers migrate to Britain, our own will need greater mobility Migration policy can complement an economic strategy, but it can’t stand in for one. 23 February 2022 by Kathleen Henehan One of the main benefits often cited of leaving the European Union was that the UK regained control of its borders, with the Prime Minister arguing that bringing in a more controlled migration regime would be key to enabling the UK to become a high wage economy. Others fear that the shift to a new, … Continued READ MORE
A tightening labour market won’t spare workers a big pay squeeze in 2022 15 February 2022 by Nye Cominetti The latest labour market statistics from the ONS showed the labour market continuing to tighten despite the Omicron variant. There are tentative signs that this is starting to feed into stronger pay growth, but not by enough to keep pace with prices, meaning workers’ wages are being squeezed in real terms. The labour market … Continued READ MORE
The Year of the Squeeze Top of the Charts 31 December 2021 Morning all, Hope you had a great Christmas and happy (slightly premature) New Year. If Omicron has put paid to your plans for tonight, comfort yourself in the knowledge that, according to highly detailed research (my own of living through them), New Year’s Eve is the most overrated/overpriced night of the year. And the pennies … Continued READ MORE
Sprucing up our exports, FE colleges, and council logos Top of the Charts 26 November 2021 Afternoon all, I’m torn about this week’s Peppa Piggate CBI speech meltdown. At one level, having just got going again on in-person talks, the Prime Minister has considerably raised my performance anxiety. But, on the other hand, he’s massively raised the bar for what an actual fiasco looks like. So maybe gratitude is the right … Continued READ MORE
Happy hobbies and monetising your marriage Top of the Charts 19 November 2021 Morning all, This week’s TOTCs comes from that long neglected and left behind corner of England: Tunbridge Wells. More accurately it comes from a very small cliff nearby. Despite all my campaigning there has been zero topographical levelling up so this is as good as it gets rock climbing-wise in the South East. On the … Continued READ MORE
We’d all better get used to it, the direction of travel on taxes is upwards 4 November 2021 by Torsten Bell Taxes are going up. At least that’s the government’s official plan. Tax is set to exceed 36 per cent of GDP in the middle of this decade, according to the forecasts accompanying last week’s budget. That would be the highest since 1950, amounting to a £3,000 increase per household since Boris Johnson became prime minister. The … Continued READ MORE
There is no simple story of migrants down, wages up The UK needs a post-Brexit, post-Covid economic strategy, not another argument about immigration 2 November 2021 by Torsten Bell We ask a lot of migrants. They make up almost one-in-five of our workforce, run many of our biggest businesses, and disproportionately clean our homes, care for our sick, and carry ever-growing online purchases to our doors. If that wasn’t enough, we’re now asking them to solve a rather big problem: the UK’s absence of … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events This Budget will leave the poorest households hundreds of pounds a year worse off Families across Britain should expect a bumpy ride over the next six months 2 November 2021 by Mike Brewer Having spent the first 18 months in the job delivering Covid crisis fiscal statements, you can understand why there was a celebratory vibe to the Chancellor’s first “post-crisis” Budget today. The Government’s official economic watchdog, the OBR, came to the party laden with gifts – including a major upgrade to economic growth and a £141 … Continued READ MORE
Rishi Sunak’s serves up Boris Budget with higher taxes and spending 2 November 2021 by Torsten Bell The big economic backdrop to today’s Budget was growth and spending up, but living standards are stagnating – yet again. We heard a lot from the Chancellor on these first two trends as he delivered a ‘Boris Budget’ and spent half of the £141billion borrowing windfall handed down by the Office for Budget Responsibility. Much … Continued READ MORE
Love in the time of furlough Top of the Charts 15 October 2021 Afternoon all, Good to see the Treasury set out their latest big policy response to fast rising inflation this morning. Not tackling the supply shocks or protecting the incomes of poorer households, but doubling the contactless payment limit to £100. Rising prices might make you poorer but at least they won’t mean a surge in … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Tax Low tax conservatism is dead, but fiscal conservatism is back in fashion 13 September 2021 by Torsten Bell The Prime Minister and Chancellor made huge policy decisions this week, raising taxes to spend more on the NHS and protect the assets of those facing high social care costs. But the tsunami of announcements can also hide the biggest decisions they’ve taken: to bury the idea of low tax conservatism but resurrect, after a … Continued READ MORE
Social Care Budget Special Top of the Charts 10 September 2021 Afternoon all, There are busy weeks in economic policy making, and then there’s this week – with its tsunami of tax and spend announcements. We all knew big decisions were coming this autumn, but not that quite so many of them would get answered quite so quickly. Given all of that, and with the dust … Continued READ MORE
Scientific cities and successful siestas Top of the Charts 3 September 2021 Afternoon all, It sounds like we’re approaching D-Day with regards to the reform of social care funding in England. That’s really welcome given the sector has been putting out SOS calls for well over a decade and we’ve politely looked the other way. This won’t come cheap – decent care for an ageing population, with … Continued READ MORE
Covid could still make a mockery of the best-laid economic plans 2 September 2021 by Torsten Bell The last 18 months haven’t been normal. You’ll have noticed. But while it’s blindingly obvious in our personal lives, we’ve struggled to recognise it when thinking about the economy. All downturns are different, from their causes to their depths. This is a challenge for policy makers prone to looking back to previous recessions for clues … Continued READ MORE
Buckle up – milkshake droughts are just the start 1 September 2021 by Torsten Bell We’re not used to modern capitalism being a mess. For something so incredibly complex, it runs incredibly smoothly in normal times. Even those of us who don’t like many of its outcomes, for inequality or the environment, can marvel at how quickly a huge variety of goods and services are available to us almost instantaneously. … Continued READ MORE
Wishful thinking will not close Britain’s inequality gaps 31 August 2021 by Torsten Bell Optimism helps get us through tough times, and this pandemic has had plenty of those. The recent reopening of the economy has provided grounds for optimism, with firms hiring at a swift pace. But wishful thinking can be dangerous, and when it comes to the economic legacy of this crisis there’s far too much around. … Continued READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Cities and regions· Economic growth Solving the productivity puzzle 15 July 2021 by Lindsay Judge Regional inequalities are a longstanding feature within UK political debate. However, they have gained additional pertinence in the years since the 2008 financial crisis. From the 2016 EU referendum result, through the ‘red wall’ turning blue in the 2019 general election, to the differential impact of Covid-19 across the UK, place increasingly functions as a … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 The Covid certainty: more savings for the rich, more debt for the poor 30 June 2021 by Torsten Bell We’re emerging from the Covid crisis, slowly and, thanks to the Delta variant, not so surely. During the pandemic, scientists have understandably been centre stage, helping us understand the virus and its spread. But economists and other social scientists have done their bit too. Badly needed emergency policies have been developed. Some, such as the … Continued READ MORE
Great maps, green grass and giant job gaps Top of the Charts 18 June 2021 Afternoon all, The people of Chesham have spoken. Turns out it’s harder to have a relationship with two people sets of voters at once than the Prime Minister has always hoped. Especially if you’re building a train line right through their back yard. Anyway, I’m looking forward to all the long reads explaining what’s going … Continued READ MORE
A decade of huge economic change Top of the Charts 21 May 2021 Afternoon all, Here’s a thing: we increasingly don’t like economic change, but there’s quite a lot of it coming – in part because we’ve chosen it. This week’s TOTC special digs into this paradox, which is part of the motivation for The Economy 2030 Inquiry we and LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance have just launched. … Continued READ MORE
