Labour market· Pay Tight labour market breaks new ground on jobs 22 January 2019 by Stephen Clarke The UK labour market continues to confound. It seemed as though the seven year spurt in employment that began in late 2012 had come to an end in 2018. The number of people in work barely increased in the summer of last year and even fell in the three months to August. However, unlike many … Continued READ MORE
How Trump’s America can solve our crisis on the homefront Top of the Charts 18 January 2019 Afternoon all, It’s been an action packed week – with lots of chat but not many answers. So to help things along we’ve got a concrete suggestion. You may have heard we’ve got a civil servant CRISIS. 10,000 are already working on Brexit – but another 5,000 are needed. Department of Education staff are being … Continued READ MORE
Wealth & assets· Tax How wealth taxes can raise billions more without scaring any horses 3 January 2019 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett Raising taxes is never easy. Raising taxes with the government’s slim parliamentary majority is harder still. Raising taxes on wealth in those circumstances, given our diverging senses of fairness is… not a walk in the park. But that doesn’t mean it doesn’t need doing, and the good news is that significant progress can be made … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Inequality & poverty· Pay The £3.2bn pay penalty facing black and ethnic minority workers 27 December 2018 by Kathleen Henehan It’s that time of the year when everyone does their reviews of 2018. The political review of the year will inevitably be dominated by the thrills and spills of Brexit. But for those interested in public policy, a strong contender for the Resolution Foundation’s ‘policy that could make a big difference to people’s living standards’ … Continued READ MORE
Housing Home ownership is rising, but the crisis is far from over 22 December 2018 by Daniel Tomlinson Across the country today hundreds of thousands of twenty and thirtysomethings are heading back to their parents’ homes for Christmas. Most (around two-thirds) of these parents are home owners, but the same cannot be said for their kids. Home ownership rates have fallen across all age groups in the UK in recent decades, with the … Continued READ MORE
Resolution Times Christmas Special Top of the Charts 21 December 2018 Morning all, It’s the last working day before Christmas (Eve)* and so reading through the best economics research papers of the week is hopefully not at the top of your to-do list. If it is, don’t worry – you can get help for that. For the rest of you we’ve got a selection of Top … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Enforce the rules to help workers in Britain’s changing workforce 17 December 2018 by Lindsay Judge It’s here at last. Almost a year and a half after the Taylor Review was published and four consultations on, the government has finally released its plan of action to improve the quality of jobs in the UK. So is this an early Christmas present for the millions of people who work through an agency, … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Hitting the books: student loans and the public finances 16 December 2018 by Matthew Whittaker With everything that’s going on in British politics right now, it’s easy to forget that the government was celebrating some seriously good news just seven weeks ago. You might remember that the Chancellor got handed a £74 billion fiscal windfall at the Budget that allowed him to deliver the long-promised extra spending on the NHS … Continued READ MORE
Strong And Stable Britain Top of the Charts 14 December 2018 Afternoon all, Having spent this morning at the dentist enduring fairly nonstop pain for no real progress I have new found empathy for the Prime Minister’s experience this week. She can obviously take some comfort from the evidence that her would be assassins of the ERG variety are a bit more Johnny English than James Bond. There’s even … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Good tidings from the UK labour market 11 December 2018 by Nye Cominetti Earlier this year, in a fit of optimism, the ONS moved its monthly labour market stats release from Wednesday to Tuesday morning so that the data would have proper scrutiny before PMQs. With little in the way of voting going on, MPs can now spend the next 24 hours poring over the latest employment and … Continued READ MORE
Counting snores and learning from wars Top of the Charts 23 November 2018 Afternoon all, Had enough of the Brexit chat yet? Thought so. Luckily we’re definitely not going to spend the next 10 years having the same conversation over and over and over again… Oh yes we are. It’s going to be like Groundhog Day. Without the happy ending. To get through the week I’ve been focusing … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Migration Migratory patterns in Britain’s labour market 13 November 2018 by Stephen Clarke More records tumbled in the UK labour market this summer. On jobs, we had good news on quantity and quality as the people in full-time employment reached a record high of nearly 24 million. And this record high is all the more striking as it came alongside a record fall in the number of EU … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Labour market Relocation, relocation, relocation – why workers in firms are increasingly staying put 13 November 2018 by Stephen Clarke Channel 4 (or at least some of it) is off to Leeds. Some staff may be relishing the move, some may have wanted to move to Manchester or Birmingham, while others may have just wanted to stay put. Despite the mixed feelings one thing is undisputed; Channel 4 staff are now part of an increasingly … Continued READ MORE
The dangers of excess cash bags and hashtags Top of the Charts 9 November 2018 Afternoon all, I know you’re all obsessed with the US mid-term elections this week, but I’ve got some lifestyle advice for you: it’s not good for your blood pressure. Not only does reading lots about it remind you that Donald Trump exists, but you may have noticed that – unless you’re a US citizen over … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Housing· Health and disability· Time use· Intergenerational Centre All aboard the Millennial Express – longer commutes for less pay 8 November 2018 by Nye Cominetti The ONS serve to uplift and depress analysts like me in equal measure. And today they served up the latter, with new figures showing that the number of people commuting for more than an hour to get into work has increased by almost a third (31 per cent) since 2011. Longer commutes are good news … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Pessimism, Politics and Economics: the real Budget story 2 November 2018 by James Smith Debates following this week’s Budget have been dominated by political arguments about whether the Chancellor’s spending splurge means that austerity had been ended or lives on (our view: austerity was significantly eased but not ended). But another debate has been conspicuously absent this week, having dominated the UK’s political economy for the past eight years: … Continued READ MORE
Housing Lifting the lid on the HRA cap 31 October 2018 by Lindsay Judge and Daniel Tomlinson Budget 2018 may have been a bigger deal than most of us expected but it’s been underwhelming when it comes to housing, especially given the government claimed just weeks ago that ‘solving the housing crisis is the biggest domestic policy challenge of our generation’. That said, we do now have details about the lifting of … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills Apprenticeship starts increased in July – but the overall forecast isn’t so sunny 28 October 2018 by Kathleen Henehan Although the UK enjoyed some glorious weather this month, the Met Office recently predicted cooler temperatures and gloomy skies in the immediate days ahead. Given the time of year, this isn’t all that surprising, but deep down you can’t help but be disappointed: the dullness of dreary weather can cause days to blend into each … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Budget special: Debt, bad bosses and a 31bn pound question Top of the Charts 26 October 2018 Bad jokes, disappointing reveals, a tradition of alcohol consumption and a hangover the day after when we realise it all has to be paid for – yes it’s just 60 days until Christmas 3 days until the Budget. We’re casting Robert Chote of the Office for Budget Responsibility as Santa Claus for the purposes of … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market· Inequality & poverty· Pay The gender pay gap is at an all-time low – but beyond the headlines, things aren’t so rosy 25 October 2018 by Fahmida Rahman ‘The UK’s gender pay gap has reached a record low of 8.6 per cent for full-time employees,’ read today’s headlines. This is certainly true, on the whole. But averages inevitably mask a wealth of compositional effects which show that large gains for some unwittingly offset not-so-large gains for others, as well as some not-quite-so-rosy trends … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market· Pay Wage growth, low pay and falling hours: breaking down this year’s ASHE figures 25 October 2018 by Conor D’Arcy For labour market wonks, ‘ASHE day’ is like your birthday and Christmas rolled into one. Each year around this time, the ONS publishes a plethora of spreadsheets packed to the brim with data on how wages have performed over the last year. While there are definitely some pleasant surprises in this year’s figures, there are … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Housing Easing the housing headache: what the Chancellor should do in next week’s Budget 22 October 2018 by Lindsay Judge No doubt about it, housing is a headache for many young people today. The dramatic fall in the home ownership rates of the under-35s often produces the sharpest pangs for politicians (although as Chart 1 shows, we’ve seen a slight uptick in the proportion of young families owning in the last year or so). But … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Welfare Despite ‘the end of austerity’, April promises another deep benefit cut 17 October 2018 by Adam Corlett Today we learned just how deep the benefits freeze will be in its fourth and final year. In July 2015, having promised £12 billion of welfare cuts – reportedly on the assumption that the Liberal Democrats would argue this down – George Osborne announced exactly that. Chief among these cuts was a further working age … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Delaying rollout of Universal Credit is a sensible step – but fundamental reforms are still needed 16 October 2018 by David Finch Today we learnt that the government is preparing a package of measures for Universal Credit (UC) ahead of the upcoming Budget – but what are they changing and what difference might it make? The first thing to understand is that these changes aren’t about the fundamentals of either the generosity or operation of Universal Credit … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Has Britain’s long overdue pay recovery finally arrived? 16 October 2018 by Stephen Clarke In 1965 The Kinks sang “I’m so tired, tired of waiting, tired of waiting for you”. This neatly sums up how many of us have felt about the UK labour market over the past decade, in particular our pay packets. Since 2009 we’ve grown quite tired of waiting for signs that pay growth could be … Continued READ MORE
